Maryland @ Ohio State , Week 6, Oct 10, 2026

The Terps gave up 35 points to Virginia Tech at home, then 54 to UCLA in College Park, then 48 at Nebraska. The five-sack, three-interception opener against Hampton and the 67-yard rushing day against UConn were artifacts of inferior competition, not evidence that Ted Monachino's front has arrived. Sidney Stewart, Zahir Mathis, Zion Elee, Lavon Johnson and Eyan Thomas have not generated pressure against a line that can block them, and Dontay Joyner and Jamare Glasker have been picked apart by power-conference quarterbacks. Ohio State's offense is a step above even Nebraska's, and the Buckeyes have covered in four of five games. This is the single biggest reason to expect the margin to be ugly.

DeJuan Williams' 94-yard run against Hampton remains the outlier. Against UConn the Terps managed just 48 rushing yards from Harry Dalton III, and the Virginia Tech, UCLA and Nebraska games offered no evidence the run game has been fixed. Last season's 104.3 yards per game ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten, and the offensive line that was supposed to be a strength has not opened holes against power-conference fronts. If Ohio State stuffs the run early, Malik Washington will have to throw 45-plus times against a defense that knows it is coming, which is exactly how the UCLA and Nebraska games turned into blowouts.

Washington completed 34 of 41 passes for 347 yards at UConn, hitting 18 straight at one point and spreading the ball to eight different receivers, with Chris Durr Jr. (10 catches, 103 yards) and Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding (8 for 130) both producing. Maryland ran 78 plays and scored on six of eight drives after falling behind 7-0. That is a functioning, fast, multi-receiver passing game, and it is the single biggest reason to think the Terps can move the ball and put points on the board even if the run game stalls. If Washington gets into that rhythm again, Maryland can stay competitive longer than the market expects.

The line has Ohio State as a massive favorite and the prediction market gives Maryland essentially no chance to win. That is a market saying Ohio State's 4-1 start and far higher power rating outweigh Maryland's full week of rest and the fact that the Terps have won 20 straight nonconference games, the longest active streak in the FBS. Given that Maryland has lost three straight to power-conference opponents by a combined 137-52, and that the Buckeyes have covered in four of five games, the market's skepticism is not just defensible, it may even be slightly too conservative. This is a modest disagreement with the market's direction, not a heavy one.

Sean O'Haire was first-team All-Big Ten and converted 87.5% of his field goals last season, and Bryce McFerson averaged 44.2 yards per punt, second in the conference. In a game the market has as a blowout, field position and red-zone efficiency still matter. Maryland's specialists can flip field position and turn stalled drives into points, an advantage that does not show up in the power ratings but could be the difference between a competitive first half and an early rout. Against an Ohio State team that has not faced this kind of field-position pressure, this could keep the Terps within striking distance longer than expected.

The Buckeyes have shown a pattern of letting beaten opponents hang around: they led Texas 23-3 after three quarters and lost 24-23, managing only one field goal after halftime, and they failed to cover a 26.5-point line against Illinois despite winning 42-19. Maryland is 2-3 with a power rating well below Ohio State's, so the win is not in doubt, but Ryan Day's habit of pulling starters early and the offense's post-halftime cold spells make the cover less automatic than the market's overwhelming win probability implies. The market is more confident in a blowout margin than this team's second-half execution justifies.

Sayin opened the season 21 of 25 for 320 yards and three touchdowns against Ball State, with Smith catching eight passes for 151 yards and two scores, all in the first half. Even in the loss at Texas, Smith had eight catches for 164 yards and a touchdown and Sayin threw for 278. Maryland's defense is closer to Ball State and Kent State than Texas, and the Buckeyes' receivers (Smith, Brandon Inniss, Chris Henry Jr.) will win at every level. Expect a fast, efficient start through the air before the backups take over.

Matt Patricia's unit lost Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs, all top-seven NFL picks, and the linebacker corps is still learning. Against Ball State it allowed 165 total yards, but against Texas it surrendered 21 fourth-quarter points and could not get off the field when it mattered. Maryland is not Texas, so the defense should dominate, but the bigger question is whether the Buckeyes' own offense keeps scoring at the rate the total implies. Given the Week 2 second-half shutdown (one field goal after halftime), there is a real chance the scoring slows once the game is decided, which cuts against the high total.

The Buckeyes logged 1,067 miles to Austin and 461 miles to Iowa over the past month, playing in hostile environments. Now they return home with no travel, a normal week of rest, and a home-field advantage that was worth nearly three points in the opener. Maryland has to make the trip instead. This is the classic get-right spot for a team coming off a road win, and it favors Ohio State in every situational dimension.

The line and the prediction market both have Ohio State as an overwhelming favorite, which is fair given Maryland's power rating is far below the Buckeyes'. But Ohio State is 4-1 against the spread this season precisely because it covered a huge number against Ball State, covered as a small underdog at Texas, covered a huge number against Kent State, and then covered a two-touchdown line at Iowa. The concern here is not the result but the margin: Ryan Day has shown he will pull starters early, and the Week 2 offense went cold after halftime. The market's confidence in a blowout is justified, but the Buckeyes' own second-half execution issues make the cover a slightly weaker bet than the win probability implies.