Week 2
Falcon Stadium

North Dakota State @ Air Force , Week 2, Sep 13, 2026

1-0 MW Power rating: -12.8
0-0 MW Power rating: -5.4

Is there value in the North Dakota State vs Air Force line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
AF -11.2
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors ND Stfavors AF ▸
7.4 › AF
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
AF
no impact
AF
AF
no impact
1 ND St1 AF2 ND St2 AFModel: AF -11.2

Betting information

Prediction markets
ND St 68% win chance (Kalshi)

Air Force (power rating: -5.4) holds a 7.4-point advantage over North Dakota State (-12.8) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Air Force's home field adds 2.5 points to that advantage at Falcon Stadium. Beyond home field, the model charges the altitude at Falcon Stadium, with a slighter reading for North Dakota State's trip. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect North Dakota State vs Air Force at Falcon Stadium?

The latest reading for Falcon Stadium shows Patchy rain nearby, 63°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do North Dakota State and Air Force compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Air Force (-5.4) over North Dakota State (-12.8) by 7.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Air Force brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Air Force -11.2. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Patchy rain nearby

63°F

Rain22%
Precip0.01"
Humidity71%
Wind8 mph NNW
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for North Dakota State at Air Force: aerial view of Falcon Stadium, wind from the NNW at 7.6 mph, gusting to 11.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 2
Kickoff (local)
08:00 PM MDT
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Capacity
39,441
Elevation
6,657 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure North Dakota StateAway Air ForceHome
This week680 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total680 miles0 miles
Body clock21:0020:00
Rest8 days8 days

North Dakota State travels 680 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. North Dakota State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.