South Alabama24 @FINAL 28Tulane , Week 2, Sep 12, 2026

The Jaguars' defense, with a new coordinator and heavy portal turnover, allowed SE Louisiana to cut the lead to 22-14 in the third quarter before pulling away. Tulane, an FBS opponent with a power rating far above SE Louisiana's, will stress a front seven relying on FCS transfers and a secondary with unproven safeties. The market's heavy lean toward Tulane reflects this mismatch, and the Jaguars' defensive uncertainty is the primary reason the spread is so wide.

Davenport completed 18 of 27 passes without an interception and added a rushing touchdown in the opener, while the Jaguars rushed for 241 yards and three scores, led by PJ Martin's 69 yards. This balanced attack, featuring proven targets Brendan Jenkins and Anthony Eager, should move the ball against a Tulane defense that lost its opener. If South Alabama can sustain drives and control the clock, they can limit Tulane's possessions and stay within striking distance, even on the road.

South Alabama travels only a short distance to Tulane, minimizing fatigue, while Tulane enjoys a home-field advantage that is a known factor in college football. Both teams have equal rest coming off Week 1. The situational factors largely cancel out, leaving the talent and defensive questions as the decisive elements. The market's confidence in Tulane is not inflated by travel or rest, but rather by the Jaguars' defensive rebuild.

The market has Tulane as a clear favorite with a high win probability, reflecting South Alabama's defensive overhaul and Tulane's superior power rating. However, the total is set at a moderate level, implying the market does not expect a blowout. South Alabama's offense showed efficiency and balance in Week 1, and if they can replicate that against a Tulane team that lost its opener, the game could be closer than the spread indicates. The market's stance is reasonable, but the Jaguars' offensive continuity offers a slight counterweight.

Against Duke, Tulane managed only 54 rushing yards and the offensive line, with just one returning starter in Reese Baker, was overwhelmed. South Alabama's defensive front is not in Duke's class, and the Jaguars allowed over 150 rushing yards in their opener. Jamauri McClure, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry in the final five games last season, should find far more room to operate. If the line can't establish the run here, it signals a systemic problem rather than a matchup issue.

Duke's Nate Sheppard gashed Tulane for 227 rushing yards, but South Alabama does not have a comparable bell-cow back. The Jaguars' offense is built around a passing game that was efficient but not explosive in their opener. Tulane returns six of its top ten tacklers, including safety Jack Tchienchou and linebacker Chris Rodgers, and should be able to stack the box and force South Alabama to beat them through the air, a task their secondary is better equipped to handle than their front seven was against Duke.

Tulane travels zero miles this week after a 771-mile road trip to Duke, and they have a full week to fix the 15 penalties and third-down failures that plagued the opener. South Alabama, meanwhile, is coming off a home win but now faces its first road game of the season. Tulane's home-field advantage, combined with the emotional lift of playing in front of their own crowd after a disappointing opener, should help a young team settle down and play to its potential.

The market has Tulane as a solid favorite and gives them a high win probability, reflecting the talent gap and home field. However, Tulane's offense failed to score a touchdown for the first time since 2019, and the quarterback situation remains unresolved after Zeon Chriss-Gremillion was benched at halftime against Duke. If the offense sputters again, covering a large spread could be difficult even in a win. The defense and run game should improve, but the market may be overestimating how quickly this unit can fix its issues.