Northwestern Wildcats is 6-1 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +12.5. Northwestern Wildcats is covering the spread at 67% since the start of last season (12-6-2), well above the FBS average. The Northwestern Wildcats head to Oregon next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Northwestern Wildcats Power Rating of +12.5 is 12.5 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Northwestern Wildcats have logged 754 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,571 miles, ranking 94th heaviest in the FBS.
Aidan Chiles QB, Griffin Wilde WR, Haydon Eligon II WR, Alex Honig TE, Luke Dehnicke TE, Caleb Komolafe RB, Joseph Himon II RB, Robby Preckel RB, Grant Seagren OL, Ezomo Oratokhai OL, Drew Wagner WR, Chase Farrell WR
Robert Fitzgerald S, Josh Fussell CB, Braden Turner CB, Damon Walters S, Kobie McKinzie LB, Jamaal Johnson EDGE, Braydon Brus LB, Michael Kilbane EDGE, Brendan Flakes DL
Jackson Kleather K, Nikola Dugandzic P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 5-3 | 5-2-1 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 5-4 | 5-3-1 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 6-3-1 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 6-5 | 6-4-1 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 6-6 | 6-4-2 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 7-6 | 7-4-2 | 6-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +3.5 in the preseason and finished +12.5 after week 8, a move of +8.9 points. High +13.3 (week 7), low +3.5 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +5.0 is regressed to +3.0 before it is applied, a difference of 2.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Penn State | 4 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Michigan State | 6 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Rutgers | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Oregon | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Iowa | 9 | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Ohio State | 6 | 0-6 | 4-2 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Illinois | 10 | 6-4 | 5-4-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: South Dakota State, Colorado, Ball State.
Week 05,571 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | South Dakota State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | - | Bye | |
| Week 3 | Colorado | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 4 | Indiana | 207 mi | 415 mi |
| Week 5 | Penn State | Home | 415 mi |
| Week 6 | Ball State | Home | 415 mi |
| Week 7 | Michigan State | 169 mi | 754 mi |
| Week 8 | Rutgers | Home | 754 mi |
| Week 9 | Oregon | 1,783 mi | 4,320 mi |
| Week 10 | Iowa | Home | 4,320 mi |
| Week 11 | Ohio State | 281 mi | 4,883 mi |
| Week 12 | Minnesota | 344 mi | 5,571 mi |
| Week 13 | Illinois | Home | 5,571 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The Wildcats have transformed under first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, averaging 33.5 points per game after six contests. Aidan Chiles, the Michigan State transfer, has thrown for 1,305 yards with nine touchdowns and added six more on the ground. The run game has been the engine: Caleb Komolafe (career-high 188 yards vs Penn State) and Joseph Himon II (162 yards, two TDs in the same game) powered a 413-yard rushing outburst in the Ryan Field opener. Northwestern has topped 500 total yards twice and scored 40 or more in two games. The tempo and big-play ability are a stark departure from the program's recent history.
Northwestern has allowed just one touchdown on seven red-zone trips this season, a remarkable rate that has bailed out a unit that has surrendered plenty of yards between the 20s. South Dakota State moved inside the 25 seven times but scored only one touchdown; Colorado gained 348 yards but managed just seven points; Penn State was held to 13 points with two interceptions. The secondary, led by Robert Fitzgerald, Josh Fussell, and Braden Turner, is the strength, but injuries to Fussell and Turner at Indiana exposed depth concerns. The defensive tackle rotation behind Brendan Flakes remains a question against power run games.
The Wildcats have shown they can compete in hostile environments. Their only loss was a 29-23 setback at No. 5 Indiana in which they clawed back from a 12-0 deficit and had a chance to tie late. They followed that with a 34-13 rout of Penn State in the first game at the new Ryan Field, then won 24-21 at Michigan State on a last-second field goal. Northwestern is 4-2 against the spread and has covered in every game except the Ball State blowout. The team has committed only one turnover in its last two games combined, a sign of growing poise from Chiles and the offense.
Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. rushed for 203 yards in the Hoosiers' win, exposing a soft underbelly in the run defense. The defensive tackle rotation behind Brendan Flakes has been pushed around at times, and the secondary's health is a concern after Fussell and Turner both left the Indiana game injured. On offense, the line lost Jackson Carsello to a scary stretcher moment in Week 1, and while Grant Seagren has stabilized the tackle spot, depth remains thin. The Wildcats managed just 51 first-half yards at Indiana, showing the offense can be stalled by athletic fronts.
At 5-1 and ranked No. 25, Northwestern has already exceeded preseason expectations. The schedule remains challenging with trips to Oregon and Ohio State and a home date with Iowa, but the Wildcats have positioned themselves for a third bowl appearance in four seasons and potentially more. The key will be health in the secondary and whether the run defense can hold up against elite backs. Chiles' development and Kelly's play-calling will determine if the offense can sustain drives against top-tier defenses. The October opening of Ryan Field has provided a tangible home-field advantage, and the program's investment in football is paying early dividends.
Northwestern Wildcats is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.
Northwestern Wildcats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +12.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Northwestern Wildcats's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Northwestern Wildcats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -105 over and -125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Northwestern Wildcats travels 5,571 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 94th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Northwestern Wildcats: 6-1 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +12.5 (2026 records).
