Oregon Ducks is 4-2 on the season, 2-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +18.3. Oregon Ducks carries one of the heaviest travel loads in the FBS, ranked 9th with 15,995 miles travelled this season, a meaningful fatigue factor for away games. The Oregon Ducks head to Illinois next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Oregon Ducks Power Rating of +18.3 is 18.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Oregon Ducks have logged 4,427 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 15,995 miles, ranking 9th heaviest in the FBS.
Dante Moore QB, Jordon Davison RB, Dierre Hill Jr. RB, Dakorien Moore WR, Jeremiah McClellan WR, Iverson Hooks WR, Evan Stewart WR, Jamari Johnson TE, Iapani Laloulu OL, RJ Todd OL
Bear Alexander DL, A'Mauri Washington DL, Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE, Teitum Tuioti EDGE, Aydin Breland DL, Matthew Johnson DL, Nasir Wyatt LB, Jerry Mixon LB, Devon Jackson LB, Brandon Finney Jr. CB, Koi Perich S, Carl Williams IV CB, Na'eem Offord CB
Bailey Ettridge P, Keaton Emmett K, Gage Hurych K, Rocco Graziano K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Week 11 | 8-1 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 9-1 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 10-1 | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 11-1 | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 13-2 | 9-6 | 8-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +29.4 in the preseason and finished +18.3 after week 8, a move of -11.1 points. High +30.0 (week 1), low +18.3 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Portland State | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| USC | 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| UCLA | 6 | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Nebraska | 2 | 1-1 | 0-1-1 |
| Illinois | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Northwestern | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Michigan | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Michigan State | 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Washington | 10 | 5-5 | 5-4-1 |
Week 015,995 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Boise State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Oklahoma State | 1,475 mi | 2,950 mi |
| Week 3 | Portland State | Home | 2,950 mi |
| Week 4 | USC | 739 mi | 4,427 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | UCLA | Home | 4,427 mi |
| Week 7 | Nebraska | Home | 4,427 mi |
| Week 8 | Illinois | 1,798 mi | 8,023 mi |
| Week 9 | Northwestern | Home | 8,023 mi |
| Week 10 | Ohio State | 2,059 mi | 12,141 mi |
| Week 11 | Michigan | Home | 12,141 mi |
| Week 12 | Michigan State | 1,927 mi | 15,995 mi |
| Week 13 | Washington | Home | 15,995 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Oregon entered 2026 ranked No. 2 and with legitimate national title aspirations, but the Ducks have already suffered two losses that will weigh heavily on their College Football Playoff resume. The first came at Oklahoma State in Week 2, a 39-31 defeat as a 23.5-point favorite, and the second was a 17-15 home loss to UCLA in Week 6. At 4-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play, Oregon is no longer controlling its own destiny, but the remaining schedule offers opportunities to climb back into the conversation. The Ducks' preseason goal of a championship is now a long shot, but a strong finish could still yield a major bowl berth.
The story of Oregon's season changed in an instant when star quarterback Dante Moore suffered a concussion on a late hit at USC in Week 4 and was transported to a hospital. Moore, who threw for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025, has not played since. Dylan Raiola, a transfer from Nebraska, stepped in and delivered a stirring relief performance against the Trojans (289 yards, two touchdowns), but he struggled in his first start against UCLA (6 of 18, 43 yards, two interceptions). Third-stringer Brock Thomas started against Nebraska and was ineffective before Raiola came off the bench to engineer a game-winning drive. Moore's health remains the single biggest variable for the rest of the season; his return would stabilize an offense that has been inconsistent without him.
Oregon has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, and it cost them dearly in the UCLA loss. The Ducks committed seven turnovers against the Bruins, including a lost fumble on the final drive and a Raiola sack-fumble that led directly to a UCLA touchdown. Earlier, a muffed punt against Boise State gifted the Broncos a score. Head coach Dan Lanning has acknowledged that ball security is a coaching issue, and it must be fixed for Oregon to reach its ceiling. The defense has been opportunistic (two interceptions at Oklahoma State, including Devon Jackson's 96-yard return for a touchdown), but the offense's giveaways have repeatedly put the team in adverse situations.
The Ducks' defensive line, featuring Bear Alexander, A'Mauri Washington, Matayo Uiagalelei, and Teitum Tuioti, has been as good as advertised. That group held Boise State to 274 total yards and has consistently won at the line of scrimmage. However, the back end has been exposed by mobile quarterbacks, most notably Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 317 yards and ran for 109 more. USC's Jayden Maiava also passed for 326 yards. While the front four can dominate, the secondary must tighten up against dual-threat signal-callers. The return of safety Koi Perich and corner Brandon Finney Jr. from injury would help, but neither has been fully healthy.
Oregon's rushing attack, expected to be a strength with Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. leading the way, has been inconsistent. The offensive line, led by center Iapani Laloulu, has struggled to open holes against quality opponents, and the Ducks managed just 3.1 yards per carry from their running backs at Oklahoma State. Against UCLA, Davison was stuffed on a critical two-point conversion attempt. The kicking game also remains a question mark after the graduation of last year's specialists. Gage Hurych has handled field goals (including a 37-yarder against Nebraska) but missed a 26-yarder against UCLA that proved costly. Portal additions Keaton Emmett and Bailey Ettridge have yet to fully seize the jobs. In close games, these areas must improve.
Oregon Ducks is 2-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.
Oregon Ducks holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +18.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Oregon Ducks's home field advantage rating is 1.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Oregon Ducks's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 10.5 wins, priced at +105 over and -135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Oregon Ducks travels 15,995 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 9th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Oregon Ducks: 4-2 overall, 2-4 ATS, power rating +18.3 (2026 records).
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