Ball State Cardinals is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -22.1. Ball State Cardinals enters the season with a power rating of -22.1, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Ball State Cardinals host Stony Brook next in Week 2. In 2025, Ball State Cardinals went 4-8 overall, 7-5 against the spread, and 5-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Ball State Cardinals Power Rating of -22.1 is 22.1 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Ball State Cardinals have logged 256 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,828 miles, ranking 122nd heaviest in the FBS.
Keldric Luster QB, Tyler Mizzell QB, Donovan Hamilton WR, CJ Nelson WR, Jabari Smith Jr. WR, DJ Young WR, Corey Thompson Jr. WR, Tristan Cook OL, TJ Horton RB, Jalen Bonds RB
Jared Badie EDGE, Willizhuan Yates CB, DJ Fields CB, Deondre Shepherd S, Sterling Smith S, Ameir Glenn DL, Ben Marsh EDGE, Spencer Vaka DL
Carson Holmer K, Cole Stumbaugh P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 2-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 2-4 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 5-3 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 4-5 | 6-3 | 3-6 |
| Week 12 | 4-6 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Week 13 | 4-7 | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 7-5 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -20.7 in the preseason and finished -17.2 after the postseason, a move of +3.5 points. High -15.4 (week 13), low -21.9 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.8 is regressed to +3.2 before it is applied, a difference of 1.6 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | 6 | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Toledo | 9 | 2-7 | 6-3 |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo | 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Ohio | 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Central Michigan | 9 | 4-5 | 6-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Ohio State, Stony Brook, Liberty, Northwestern, Sacramento State, Massachusetts.
Week 03,828 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Ohio State | 128 mi | 256 mi |
| Week 2 | Stony Brook | Home | 256 mi |
| Week 3 | Liberty | 390 mi | 1,037 mi |
| Week 4 | Kent State | 225 mi | 1,486 mi |
| Week 5 | Toledo | Home | 1,486 mi |
| Week 6 | Northwestern | 174 mi | 1,835 mi |
| Week 7 | Bowling Green | 124 mi | 2,082 mi |
| Week 8 | Sacramento State | Home | 2,082 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Massachusetts | 686 mi | 3,454 mi |
| Week 11 | Buffalo | Home | 3,454 mi |
| Week 12 | Ohio | 187 mi | 3,828 mi |
| Week 13 | Central Michigan | Home | 3,828 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The receiving corps has been rebuilt with an influx of transfers. Donovan Hamilton, who finished second on the team with 244 yards on 20 catches last season, is a potential All-MAC performer. Newcomers CJ Nelson, Jabari Smith Jr., DJ Young, and Corey Thompson Jr. add smaller, quicker options in the slot, giving the Cardinals more speed and depth than they had a year ago. This group should benefit from the quarterback competition, as both Luster and Mizzell have the ability to push the ball downfield. The improved receiver talent could make Ball State more balanced on offense.
Senior kicker Carson Holmer will get another chance at the placekicking job after winning it last spring but losing it early in the season. He made only 3 of 7 field goal attempts, with a long of 23 yards, which was a significant weakness. Cole Stumbaugh returns as the punter. If Holmer can find consistency, it would be a boost for a team that may be in close games. Otherwise, the kicking game could remain a liability.
Ball State has not reached a bowl game since 2021, and the preseason outlook suggests they face an uphill battle. The offensive line and secondary are strengths, but the quarterback position is unsettled, the defensive front is thin, and special teams are unreliable. The schedule opens with a daunting trip to Ohio State, where they are heavy underdogs. The Cardinals will need one of the quarterbacks to seize the job, the defensive line to exceed expectations, and the kicking game to stabilize if they want to compete for a bowl berth. The coaching staff, led by Mike Uremovich, has a reputation for getting players to perform at a high level, but the roster has too many question marks to project a winning season.
Ball State Cardinals is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Ball State Cardinals holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -22.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Ball State Cardinals's home field advantage rating is 3.2 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Ball State Cardinals's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -115 over and -115 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Ball State Cardinals travels 3,828 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 122nd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Ball State Cardinals: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -22.1 (2026 records).
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