Michigan Wolverines

By · Last updated

Michigan Wolverines is 4-3 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +10.5. Michigan Wolverines is covering at just 35% since the start of last season (7-13), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Michigan Wolverines head to Rutgers next in Week 9.

Conference: Big Ten Conference
Stadium: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Power Rating (most current): +10.5
HFA Rating:1.9 pts
2026 Win Total:8.5
2026 Record: 4-3
2026 ATS: 3-4
2026 O/U: 2-5

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Michigan Wolverines Power Rating of +10.5 is 10.5 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Michigan Wolverines have logged 1,021 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,280 miles, ranking 83rd heaviest in the FBS.

Michigan Wolverines Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachKyle Whittingham
TenureFirst season
Career record177-88 (21+ seasons)
Offensive coordinatorJason Beck
Defensive coordinatorJay Hill

Offense

Bryce Underwood QB, Jordan Marshall RB, Savion Hiter RB, Andrew Marsh WR, JJ Buchanan WR, Jaime Ffrench WR, Salesi Moa WR

Defense

John Henry Daley EDGE, Trey Pierce DL, Enow Etta DL, Jyaire Hill CB, Zeke Berry CB, Rod Moore S, Smith Snowden CB, Chris Bracy S

Special teams

Cameron Brown P, Trey Butkowski K

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS4-9 O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-10-1
Week 21-10-20-2
Week 32-11-21-2
Week 43-12-22-2
Week 64-12-32-3
Week 74-22-42-4
Week 85-23-42-5
Week 96-23-53-5
Week 107-23-63-6
Week 128-23-74-6
Week 139-24-75-6
Week 149-34-85-7
Postseason9-44-96-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +17.2 in the preseason and finished +10.5 after week 8, a move of -6.7 points. High +18.3 (week 1), low +10.3 (week 6).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +17.2 to +10.5.

PreW8

Michigan Wolverines SP+ Profile

Offence+32.819 of 138higher is better
Defence+16.213 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.5111 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.9 pts
HFA measured+0.5 pts
HFA applied+1.9 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +0.5 is regressed to +1.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Western Michigan22-02-0
Oklahoma10-10-1
Iowa54-14-1
Minnesota44-03-1
Penn State85-36-2
Indiana97-24-4-1
Rutgers88-03-4-1
Michigan State107-34-5-1
Oregon10-10-1
Ohio State94-56-3

No meeting on record since 2016: UTEP, UCLA.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home58-933-32-2 ATS · 67 games
On the road30-1523-20-2 ATS · 45 games
Neutral site8-77-8 ATS · 15 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

6,280 miles - ranked 83rd heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 6,280 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 06,280 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Western MichiganHome0 mi
Week 2OklahomaHome0 mi
Week 3UTEPHome0 mi
Week 4IowaHome0 mi
Week 5Minnesota510 mi1,021 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7Penn StateHome1,021 mi
Week 8IndianaHome1,021 mi
Week 9Rutgers497 mi2,015 mi
Week 10Michigan StateHome2,015 mi
Week 11Oregon1,972 mi5,959 mi
Week 12UCLAHome5,959 mi
Week 13Ohio State161 mi6,280 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Michigan Wolverines Season Outlook

A new era defined by defense and late drama

Kyle Whittingham's first season in Ann Arbor has been a rollercoaster, but the identity is clear: Michigan wins with defense and special teams while the offense searches for consistency. The Wolverines are 4-2, with both losses coming by a combined four points (20-19 to Iowa, 20-14 at Minnesota). The defense, coordinated by Jay Hill, has been the backbone, holding Oklahoma to 10 points, Western Michigan to four field goals, and Iowa to 20. The offense, however, has been a work in progress, ranking among the nation's most inconsistent units. The season began with a controversial 13-12 escape over Western Michigan that required a second-chance Hail Mary, and the offense has yet to find a reliable rhythm against Power-conference competition.

Quarterback carousel: Underwood benched, Carr sparks win

Bryce Underwood, the highly touted sophomore, has struggled with turnovers and consistency. He threw two interceptions in the first half against Penn State, prompting Whittingham to bench him in favor of Tommy Carr, the grandson of legendary coach Lloyd Carr. Carr provided an immediate spark, leading Michigan to a 21-18 win over Penn State with a 12-yard touchdown run and efficient play. Underwood's season has been rocky: he has six interceptions to five passing touchdowns and lost key fumbles. Whittingham has not named a starter for the upcoming game against Indiana, leaving the position in flux. The development of either quarterback is critical for Michigan's offense to reach its potential.

Defense and special teams carry the load

Despite the offensive inconsistencies, Michigan's defense has been elite for most of the season. Edge rusher John Henry Daley anchors a disruptive front, and the secondary, featuring Jyaire Hill, Zeke Berry, Rod Moore, and transfers Smith Snowden and Chris Bracy, has made key plays. The unit forced a late interception against Oklahoma that set up the go-ahead score and held Penn State to 18 points. Special teams have also been a strength: kicker Trey Butkowski is reliable, and returner Andrew Marsh is a threat. However, the defense has shown vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks and in the red zone, and the linebacker corps remains thin. For Michigan to contend, the defense must continue to dominate and create turnovers.

Turnovers and penalties: the recurring plague

Michigan's biggest vulnerability has been self-inflicted mistakes. The Wolverines have fumbled six times in three games (losing four) and have committed double-digit penalties in multiple games, including 11 for 90 yards against Oklahoma. These errors have kept lesser opponents within reach and stalled offensive drives. Against Iowa, a costly unnecessary roughness penalty on third down extended the Hawkeyes' game-winning drive. Whittingham has called the turnover issue a 'big concern,' and it remains the top priority to fix. If Michigan can clean up its ball security and discipline, its talent and defense could lead to a strong finish. If not, the Wolverines will continue to play close games against inferior teams.

Schedule outlook: opportunity for a strong finish

At 4-2, Michigan has already navigated a challenging early slate that included Oklahoma, Iowa, and Minnesota. The remaining schedule features home games against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, plus road trips to Michigan State and Maryland. The Wolverines' defense gives them a chance in every game, but the offense must improve to compete with the likes of Indiana and Ohio State. The quarterback situation is the biggest question mark; whether Underwood regains his form or Carr takes over, Michigan needs more production through the air. With a bye week already used, the team has time to regroup. A 9-3 or 10-2 season is still within reach, but it will require cleaner play and better quarterback decisions. The ceiling remains high, but the margin for error is slim.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Michigan Wolverines's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Michigan Wolverines is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.

What is Michigan Wolverines's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Michigan Wolverines holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +10.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Michigan Wolverines's home field advantage rating?

Michigan Wolverines's home field advantage rating is 1.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Michigan Wolverines's 2026 win total?

Michigan Wolverines's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at +135 over and -170 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Michigan Wolverines travel in 2026?

Michigan Wolverines travels 6,280 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 83rd heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Michigan Wolverines: 4-3 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating +10.5 (2026 records).