Tulsa (power rating: -4.9) carries a 19.3-point edge over Sam Houston (-24.2) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Sam Houston's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5) narrows that gap at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. See Line Value below.
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Game-time forecast at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium shows Mist — 74.6°F, Feels Like 64.6°F with winds of 5.1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.
74.6°F
Baylor Hayes' dual-threat ability (376 rushing yards before sacks in 2025) will be critical against Oklahoma State's defense, especially with projected 26 mph winds limiting deep passing. Hayes' scrambling can extend plays and exploit any gaps in the Cowboys' rush lanes.
Tulsa must replace its top three rushers and receivers from 2025. Newcomer RB Trequan Jones (graded as the third-best transfer RB by PFF) will be relied upon heavily, but the lack of proven pass-catchers could stall drives against a Power 4 opponent.
Tulsa's secondary, led by All-Conference CB Elijah Green (5 INTs in 2025) and S Zach Williams (73 tackles, 2 FF), must prevent explosive plays that plagued the defense late last season. Oklahoma State's passing attack will test their discipline in windy conditions.
Playing at home (HFA 1.9) provides a boost, but 26 mph winds and rain could neutralize Tulsa's passing game and favor a ground-and-pound approach. The kicking game, with new kicker Marlon Hauck (no FGs in college), becomes a liability in adverse weather.
The loss of leading tackler Ray Coney (129 stops) to Texas A&M leaves a void in the middle. Chris Thompson Jr. returns from a broken ankle but may be rusty, making Tulsa vulnerable to Oklahoma State's run game and short-to-intermediate passes.
Tulsa travels 375 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Tulsa (-4.9) over Sam Houston (-24.2) by 19.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Sam Houston faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Sam Houston brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Blue Chip Analytics rates Tulsa as the stronger team by 19.3 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.
