Nevada Wolf Pack is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -15.2. Nevada Wolf Pack enters the season with a power rating of -15.2, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Nevada Wolf Pack host Montana State next in Week 2. In 2025, Nevada Wolf Pack went 3-9 overall, 5-6-1 against the spread, and 4-8 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Nevada Wolf Pack Power Rating of -15.2 is 15.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Nevada Wolf Pack have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 12,759 miles, ranking 16th heaviest in the FBS.
Carter Jones QB, Luke Duncan QB, Herschel Turner RB, Dominic Kelley RB, Damien Morgan WR, Gary Givens III WR, Marshaun Brown WR
Dylan LaBarbera EDGE, Logologo Va'a DL, EJ Smith LB, Jeremy Naborne-Owens LB, Aiden Walker CB, Bryson Snelling CB, Bishop Turner S
Joe McFadden K, Ewan Baulch P, Jacob Fernandez P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Week 6 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Week 7 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Week 8 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 1-6 |
| Week 9 | 1-7 | 3-4-1 | 1-7 |
| Week 11 | 1-8 | 3-5-1 | 2-7 |
| Week 12 | 2-8 | 4-5-1 | 3-7 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 5-5-1 | 3-8 |
| Week 14 | 3-9 | 5-6-1 | 4-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -18.6 in the preseason and finished -13.5 after the postseason, a move of +5.1 points. High -12.5 (week 13), low -18.6 (the preseason).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +0.9 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Air Force | 5 | 1-4 | 2-2-1 |
| UTEP | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| San José State | 9 | 5-4 | 5-3-1 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Hawai'i | 9 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| UNLV | 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Montana State, North Dakota State, UCLA, Northern Illinois.
Week 012,759 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Western Kentucky | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Montana State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Middle Tennessee | 1,840 mi | 3,680 mi |
| Week 4 | Air Force | Home | 3,680 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | UTEP | 919 mi | 5,518 mi |
| Week 7 | North Dakota State | 1,262 mi | 8,042 mi |
| Week 8 | San José State | Home | 8,042 mi |
| Week 9 | UCLA | 382 mi | 8,807 mi |
| Week 10 | New Mexico | Home | 8,807 mi |
| Week 11 | Northern Illinois | 1,628 mi | 12,064 mi |
| Week 12 | Hawai'i | Home | 12,064 mi |
| Week 13 | UNLV | 348 mi | 12,759 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Nevada's passing game was the worst in the country last year, with quarterbacks throwing 10 touchdowns against 17 interceptions. Carter Jones, a true freshman who was forced into action early, is competing with UCLA transfer Luke Duncan for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Brett Bartolone. The winner will have to show significant improvement for the Wolf Pack to have any chance at ending their four-year bowl drought.
The Wolf Pack lost their top five receivers from last season, leaving senior Damien Morgan, who was productive at FCS Idaho State, as the likely go-to target. Gary Givens III arrives from Northern Illinois with limited production, while Marshaun Brown is the leading returning receiver with just 16 catches. The passing game's success will hinge on how quickly these new faces can develop chemistry with the starting quarterback.
Defensive end Dylan LaBarbera is a potential All-Mountain West player and NFL prospect after recording a league-best 17 tackles for loss last season. He is joined by defensive tackle Logologo Va'a, linebacker EJ Smith, who missed the second half of last year with injury but was becoming a leader, and Colorado State transfer Jeremy Naborne-Owens. In the secondary, cornerback Aiden Walker emerged as a true freshman and is the top returning player in the back line, with Bryson Snelling and safety Bishop Turner also back.
Herschel Turner averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season and is expected to lead the backfield, with Dominic Kelley providing a power option after flashing as a freshman. The offensive line returns two starters and added impact transfers, which could give the Wolf Pack a solid base to build around while the passing game finds its footing.
Senior kicker Joe McFadden was reliable last season, hitting 19 of 25 field goals with a long of 50 yards. The punting job will go to one of two Australians, Ewan Baulch or Jacob Fernandez. While the schedule includes winnable games, reaching six wins will require a significant jump in quarterback play, as the team is still young and lost a lot to the portal.
Nevada Wolf Pack is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Nevada Wolf Pack holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -15.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Nevada Wolf Pack's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Nevada Wolf Pack's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at +110 over and -140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Nevada Wolf Pack travels 12,759 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 16th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Nevada Wolf Pack: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -15.2 (2026 records).
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