Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 3-4 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -11.9. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is covering the spread at 70% since the start of last season (14-6), well above the FBS average. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers host Delaware next in Week 9.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Power Rating of -11.9 is 11.9 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have logged 8,221 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,183 miles, ranking 39th heaviest in the FBS.
Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB, Brock Glenn QB, K.D. Hutchinson WR, Ajay Allen RB, Nigel Johnson WR, CC Ezirim TE, Karsten Upchurch OL, Cameron Flowers WR
Jaylen Lewis S, Dave Herard S, Venson Sneed EDGE, Jakeem Fletcher DL
Daniel Wall P, Michael Buck K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 7-2 | 7-2 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 8-2 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 9-3 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 10-3 | 6-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -5.5 in the preseason and finished -11.9 after week 8, a move of -6.5 points. High -5.5 (the preseason), low -16.1 (week 6).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Indiana | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| New Mexico State | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Sam Houston | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Delaware | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Middle Tennessee | 10 | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| Jacksonville State | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Liberty | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Kennesaw State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Georgia, Mercyhurst.
Week 09,183 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Nevada | 1,812 mi | 3,624 mi |
| Week 2 | Georgia | 272 mi | 4,169 mi |
| Week 3 | Indiana | 151 mi | 4,472 mi |
| Week 4 | Mercyhurst | Home | 4,472 mi |
| Week 5 | New Mexico State | 1,198 mi | 6,867 mi |
| Week 6 | Missouri State | Home | 6,867 mi |
| Week 7 | Sam Houston | 677 mi | 8,221 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Delaware | Home | 8,221 mi |
| Week 10 | Middle Tennessee | 78 mi | 8,378 mi |
| Week 11 | Jacksonville State | Home | 8,378 mi |
| Week 12 | Liberty | 403 mi | 9,183 mi |
| Week 13 | Kennesaw State | Home | 9,183 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Western Kentucky opened 2026 with three straight losses to power-conference opponents, falling at Nevada 49-14, at Georgia 70-20, and at Indiana 38-0. The Hilltoppers were outscored 157-34 in those games and never led. The schedule was among the toughest in the country, with the Georgia and Indiana games coming against top-five teams on the road. The offense managed just 34 points in those three games, while the defense allowed at least 38 points in each. The team's power rating dropped to -12.97 after the Indiana loss, reflecting the difficult start.
The offensive line returned only right tackle Karsten Upchurch and was overrun in the first three games, allowing constant pressure on quarterbacks Rodney Tisdale Jr. and Brock Glenn. Upchurch suffered a back injury at Indiana and was taken off on a cart, leaving his status uncertain. The linebacker corps lost its top two tacklers to graduation and two more to the transfer portal, and opponents exploited that weakness: Nevada's Dominic Kelley ran for 152 yards and a 72-yard touchdown on the second play of the season, while Georgia and Indiana also ran at will. The run defense remains a major vulnerability.
Last season, Western Kentucky allowed touchdowns on only 34.7% of opponent red-zone trips, the best mark in the nation. That unit lost key personnel, including defensive lineman Harper Holloman (transfer to West Virginia) and both starting linebackers. In 2026, the red-zone stinginess has vanished: Nevada, Georgia, and Indiana scored touchdowns on nearly every trip inside the 20. The Hilltoppers finally held Mercyhurst to a single red-zone score, but that was against an FCS opponent. Reestablishing that red-zone resistance is critical for CUSA play.
Western Kentucky earned its first win in Week 4, a 52-7 home rout of Mercyhurst, behind Rodney Tisdale Jr.'s 309 passing yards and four touchdowns. The offense scored on five of six first-half drives. In Week 6, the Hilltoppers beat Missouri State 34-13 as Brock Glenn threw for 231 yards and a score and ran for 95 yards and another touchdown, while Ajay Allen rushed for 105 yards and two scores. The offense showed balance and efficiency in both wins, but both came at home against lesser competition. The challenge is translating that success to the road and against stronger CUSA defenses.
Western Kentucky is 0-4 on the road this season, with all four losses coming by double digits. The Hilltoppers have already traveled 3,433 miles and will add another 677 miles for the Week 7 game at Sam Houston. The remaining schedule includes winnable CUSA games, but the team must improve its run defense and offensive line play to contend. Head coach Tyson Helton has a track record of winning eight or nine games and extending the bowl streak to eight straight, but this year's team has clear flaws. The next stretch will determine whether the Hilltoppers can climb back into the CUSA race or settle for a lower-tier bowl.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -11.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's home field advantage rating is 2.6 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -180 over and +140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travels 9,183 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 39th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 3-4 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -11.9 (2026 records).