Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -10.7. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers enters the season with a power rating of -10.7, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers head to Georgia next in Week 2. In 2025, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers went 9-4 overall, 10-3 against the spread, and 6-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Power Rating of -10.7 is 10.7 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have logged 3,624 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,183 miles, ranking 39th heaviest in the FBS.
Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB, Brock Glenn QB, K.D. Hutchinson WR, Ajay Allen RB, Nigel Johnson WR, CC Ezirim TE, Karsten Upchurch OL, Cameron Flowers WR
Jaylen Lewis S, Dave Herard S, Venson Sneed EDGE, Jakeem Fletcher DL
Daniel Wall P, Michael Buck K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 7-2 | 7-2 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 8-2 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 9-3 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 10-3 | 6-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -5.5 in the preseason and finished -10.7 after week 2, a move of -5.2 points. High -5.5 (the preseason), low -10.7 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Indiana | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| New Mexico State | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Sam Houston | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Delaware | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Middle Tennessee | 10 | 9-1 | 7-3 |
| Jacksonville State | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Liberty | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Kennesaw State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Georgia, Mercyhurst.
Week 09,183 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Nevada | 1,812 mi | 3,624 mi |
| Week 2 | Georgia | 272 mi | 4,169 mi |
| Week 3 | Indiana | 151 mi | 4,472 mi |
| Week 4 | Mercyhurst | Home | 4,472 mi |
| Week 5 | New Mexico State | 1,198 mi | 6,867 mi |
| Week 6 | Missouri State | Home | 6,867 mi |
| Week 7 | Sam Houston | 677 mi | 8,221 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Delaware | Home | 8,221 mi |
| Week 10 | Middle Tennessee | 78 mi | 8,378 mi |
| Week 11 | Jacksonville State | Home | 8,378 mi |
| Week 12 | Liberty | 403 mi | 9,183 mi |
| Week 13 | Kennesaw State | Home | 9,183 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Western Kentucky opened the season with a 49-14 loss at Nevada, a game that exposed several early issues. The Hilltoppers fell behind 14-0 after Nevada's Dominic Kelley broke a 72-yard touchdown run on the second play from scrimmage, and they never recovered. Rodney Tisdale Jr. completed 24 of 40 passes for 203 yards, but the offense managed just two touchdowns, both from Ajay Allen on the ground. Allen was a bright spot with 102 rushing yards on 21 carries, but the passing game lacked explosiveness, and the defense allowed 49 points, a far cry from the unit that finished second in CUSA in scoring defense last year.
The quarterback battle between Rodney Tisdale Jr. and Brock Glenn was unresolved entering the season, and Tisdale's performance in the opener did not settle it. He threw for 203 yards but no touchdowns, and the offense struggled to sustain drives against a Nevada defense that was not considered elite. The offensive line, which returned only one starter in right tackle Karsten Upchurch, allowed pressure that disrupted the passing game. With a trip to No. 3 Georgia next, the line will face an even stiffer test, and the quarterback situation remains a key vulnerability.
Last season, Western Kentucky allowed just 22.8 points per game and had the nation's best red-zone defense, surrendering touchdowns only 34.7% of the time. Against Nevada, that stinginess was nowhere to be found. The Wolf Pack scored on their first two possessions, including a long run, and finished with 49 points. The defense lost key contributors at linebacker and defensive tackle Harper Holloman to the portal, and the inexperience showed. Safeties Jaylen Lewis and Dave Herard are back, but they cannot cover for the lack of playmaking up front and at linebacker.
One of the few positives from the opener was the performance of running back Ajay Allen, a transfer from Tulsa and Nebraska. He rushed for 102 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries, showing the ability to be a workhorse back. With the passing game struggling and the offensive line rebuilding, Allen's production could be crucial for Western Kentucky to stay competitive in CUSA play. If the Hilltoppers can establish the run, it may take pressure off the quarterback and open up play-action opportunities for receivers like K.D. Hutchinson.
Western Kentucky's schedule opens with a long road trip to Nevada and then a game at No. 3 Georgia, where they are heavy underdogs. The Hilltoppers have a seven-year bowl streak under head coach Tyson Helton, who has won 57 games in seven seasons, but this early stretch could test their cohesion. The team must avoid a demoralizing start and focus on improving each week, especially on the offensive line and defense, before CUSA play begins. Helton's track record of winning eight or nine games suggests they can bounce back, but the margin for error is thin.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -10.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's home field advantage rating is 2.6 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -180 over and +140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travels 9,183 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 39th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -10.7 (2026 records).