Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 3-4 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -11.9. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is covering the spread at 70% since the start of last season (14-6), well above the FBS average. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers host Delaware next in Week 9.

Conference: Conference USA
Stadium: L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
Power Rating (most current): -11.9
HFA Rating:2.6 pts
2026 Win Total:6.5
2026 Record: 3-4
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 3-4

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Power Rating of -11.9 is 11.9 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have logged 8,221 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,183 miles, ranking 39th heaviest in the FBS.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachTyson Helton
Tenure7 seasons
Record57-36
Offensive coordinatorsBodie Reeder, Joe Bernardi
Defensive coordinatorDavis Merritt

Offense

Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB, Brock Glenn QB, K.D. Hutchinson WR, Ajay Allen RB, Nigel Johnson WR, CC Ezirim TE, Karsten Upchurch OL, Cameron Flowers WR

Defense

Jaylen Lewis S, Dave Herard S, Venson Sneed EDGE, Jakeem Fletcher DL

Special teams

Daniel Wall P, Michael Buck K

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS10-3 O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 01-01-01-0
Week 12-02-02-0
Week 22-12-13-0
Week 43-13-13-1
Week 54-14-13-2
Week 65-15-13-3
Week 85-25-23-4
Week 96-26-24-4
Week 107-27-24-5
Week 128-28-25-5
Week 138-39-25-6
Week 148-49-36-6
Postseason9-410-36-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -5.5 in the preseason and finished -11.9 after week 8, a move of -6.5 points. High -5.5 (the preseason), low -16.1 (week 6).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -5.5 to -11.9.

PreW8

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers SP+ Profile

Offence+25.272 of 138higher is better
Defence+31.0101 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.526 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±5.1 pts
HFA measured+3.1 pts
HFA applied+2.6 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Nevada11-01-0
Indiana20-22-0
New Mexico State32-11-2
Missouri State11-01-0
Sam Houston33-02-1
Delaware11-01-0
Middle Tennessee109-17-3
Jacksonville State41-31-3
Liberty30-30-3
Kennesaw State11-00-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Georgia, Mercyhurst.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home40-1932-27 ATS · 59 games
On the road31-3234-29 ATS · 63 games
Neutral site6-45-4-1 ATS · 10 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

9,183 miles - ranked 39th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 9,183 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 09,183 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Nevada1,812 mi3,624 mi
Week 2Georgia272 mi4,169 mi
Week 3Indiana151 mi4,472 mi
Week 4MercyhurstHome4,472 mi
Week 5New Mexico State1,198 mi6,867 mi
Week 6Missouri StateHome6,867 mi
Week 7Sam Houston677 mi8,221 mi
Week 8-Bye
Week 9DelawareHome8,221 mi
Week 10Middle Tennessee78 mi8,378 mi
Week 11Jacksonville StateHome8,378 mi
Week 12Liberty403 mi9,183 mi
Week 13Kennesaw StateHome9,183 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Season Outlook

Slow Start Against a Brutal Schedule

Western Kentucky opened 2026 with three straight losses to power-conference opponents, falling at Nevada 49-14, at Georgia 70-20, and at Indiana 38-0. The Hilltoppers were outscored 157-34 in those games and never led. The schedule was among the toughest in the country, with the Georgia and Indiana games coming against top-five teams on the road. The offense managed just 34 points in those three games, while the defense allowed at least 38 points in each. The team's power rating dropped to -12.97 after the Indiana loss, reflecting the difficult start.

Offensive Line and Linebacker Concerns Persist

The offensive line returned only right tackle Karsten Upchurch and was overrun in the first three games, allowing constant pressure on quarterbacks Rodney Tisdale Jr. and Brock Glenn. Upchurch suffered a back injury at Indiana and was taken off on a cart, leaving his status uncertain. The linebacker corps lost its top two tacklers to graduation and two more to the transfer portal, and opponents exploited that weakness: Nevada's Dominic Kelley ran for 152 yards and a 72-yard touchdown on the second play of the season, while Georgia and Indiana also ran at will. The run defense remains a major vulnerability.

Red-Zone Defense a Far Cry from 2025

Last season, Western Kentucky allowed touchdowns on only 34.7% of opponent red-zone trips, the best mark in the nation. That unit lost key personnel, including defensive lineman Harper Holloman (transfer to West Virginia) and both starting linebackers. In 2026, the red-zone stinginess has vanished: Nevada, Georgia, and Indiana scored touchdowns on nearly every trip inside the 20. The Hilltoppers finally held Mercyhurst to a single red-zone score, but that was against an FCS opponent. Reestablishing that red-zone resistance is critical for CUSA play.

Offensive Spark in Wins Over Mercyhurst and Missouri State

Western Kentucky earned its first win in Week 4, a 52-7 home rout of Mercyhurst, behind Rodney Tisdale Jr.'s 309 passing yards and four touchdowns. The offense scored on five of six first-half drives. In Week 6, the Hilltoppers beat Missouri State 34-13 as Brock Glenn threw for 231 yards and a score and ran for 95 yards and another touchdown, while Ajay Allen rushed for 105 yards and two scores. The offense showed balance and efficiency in both wins, but both came at home against lesser competition. The challenge is translating that success to the road and against stronger CUSA defenses.

Road Struggles and the Path Ahead

Western Kentucky is 0-4 on the road this season, with all four losses coming by double digits. The Hilltoppers have already traveled 3,433 miles and will add another 677 miles for the Week 7 game at Sam Houston. The remaining schedule includes winnable CUSA games, but the team must improve its run defense and offensive line play to contend. Head coach Tyson Helton has a track record of winning eight or nine games and extending the bowl streak to eight straight, but this year's team has clear flaws. The next stretch will determine whether the Hilltoppers can climb back into the CUSA race or settle for a lower-tier bowl.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -11.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's home field advantage rating?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's home field advantage rating is 2.6 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's 2026 win total?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -180 over and +140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travel in 2026?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travels 9,183 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 39th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 3-4 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -11.9 (2026 records).