Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

By · Last updated

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 1-6 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -16.3. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors head to Northern Illinois next in Week 8.

Conference: Mountain West Conference
Stadium: Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Power Rating (most current): -16.3
HFA Rating:3.8 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 1-6
2026 ATS: 3-4
2026 O/U: 1-6

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Power Rating of -16.3 is 16.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors have logged 17,286 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 37,264 miles, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachTimmy Chang
Tenure4 seasons
Record22-29
Offensive coordinatorAnthony Arceneaux
Defensive coordinatorDennis Thurman

Offense

Micah Alejado QB, Pofele Ashlock WR, Audric Harris WR, Cam Barfield RB, DeVon Rice RB, Ethan Spencer OL, Dean Briski OL, Denaris DeRosa Jr. OL

Defense

Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina EDGE, Jamih Otis LB, Wynden Ho'ohuli LB, Elijah Palmer CB, Caleb Brown CB, Matagi Thompson S

Special teams

Sean Olvera-Harle K, Gehrig Heil P

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS9-4 O/U5-8
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 01-01-00-1
Week 11-11-10-2
Week 22-12-11-2
Week 33-12-21-3
Week 43-23-21-4
Week 54-24-22-4
Week 75-25-23-4
Week 86-26-23-5
Week 106-36-34-5
Week 117-37-34-6
Week 137-47-44-7
Week 148-48-44-8
Postseason9-49-45-8

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -6.3 in the preseason and finished -16.3 after week 8, a move of -10.0 points. High -6.3 (the preseason), low -16.4 (week 7).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -6.3 to -16.3.

PreW8

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors SP+ Profile

Offence+25.371 of 138higher is better
Defence+29.893 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.612 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.0 pts
HFA measured+7.4 pts
HFA applied+3.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +7.4 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 3.6 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Stanford21-11-1
UNLV104-63-6-1
New Mexico State43-11-2-1
Wyoming73-44-3
San José State94-53-6
New Mexico53-22-3
Nevada96-36-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Arizona State, Northern Illinois, UTEP, North Dakota State, Sacramento State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home41-2532-29-5 ATS · 66 games
On the road17-4020-37 ATS · 57 games
Neutral site3-24-1 ATS · 5 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

37,264 miles - ranked 1st heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 37,264 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 037,264 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0Stanford2,401 mi4,802 mi
Week 1UNLVHome4,802 mi
Week 2New Mexico StateHome4,802 mi
Week 3-Bye
Week 4Wyoming3,325 mi11,453 mi
Week 5San José StateHome11,453 mi
Week 6Arizona State2,916 mi17,286 mi
Week 7New MexicoHome17,286 mi
Week 8Northern Illinois4,194 mi25,674 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10UTEP3,228 mi32,131 mi
Week 11North Dakota StateHome32,131 mi
Week 12Nevada2,567 mi37,264 mi
Week 13Sacramento StateHome37,264 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Season Outlook

Preseason promise meets harsh reality

Hawai'i entered 2026 with high hopes, led by quarterback Micah Alejado, the reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year, and a high-powered spread offense. The defense was a question mark with only three returning starters, but the team was considered a legitimate conference contender. However, the season has not gone as planned. The Rainbow Warriors sit at 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Mountain West play, with their only win coming against New Mexico State. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense has struggled to stop the run, leading to a disappointing start.

Offensive fireworks fizzle

Micah Alejado has shown flashes of brilliance, such as his 346-yard, 33-of-45 performance against New Mexico State, but the offense has been held to 16 points or fewer in four of seven games. The running game has been nearly nonexistent, and the receiving corps, led by Pofele Ashlock and Audric Harris, has not consistently produced. Alejado has thrown for over 250 yards in several games, but turnovers and red-zone inefficiency have plagued the unit. The offense that was supposed to carry the team has instead been a source of frustration.

Defensive woes continue

The rebuilt defense has been a liability all season. Hawai'i has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in every game, including 154 yards and two scores to Arizona State's Cardae Mack and 143 yards to UNLV's Jai'den Thomas. The front seven, with only three returning starters and limited depth at linebacker, has been unable to stop opposing ground games. The pass defense has also had its moments, but the overall unit ranks near the bottom of the conference. Until the defense can get stops, the Rainbow Warriors will struggle to win games.

Home-field advantage not enough

Hawai'i's home-field advantage is among the strongest in the Mountain West, but it hasn't translated to wins this season. The Rainbow Warriors have lost at home to UNLV and San José State, both games in which they were favored or competitive. The offense managed only six points against UNLV and 16 against San José State. While the team plays hard under head coach Timmy Chang, the home edge has not been enough to overcome the systemic issues on both sides of the ball. With three home games remaining, Hawai'i must find a way to protect its turf.

What to watch: Can the offense find consistency?

The biggest key for the rest of the season is whether Micah Alejado and the offense can find a rhythm. Alejado has the talent and the weapons in Ashlock, Harris, and others, but the unit has been plagued by slow starts and turnovers. The running game must improve to take pressure off the passing attack. Defensively, the Rainbow Warriors need to shore up their run defense and get more production from the front seven. With a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois next, Hawai'i has a chance to build some momentum. But the margin for error is slim, and the team must execute better in all phases to turn the season around.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -16.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's home field advantage rating?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's 2026 win total?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors travel in 2026?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors travels 37,264 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 1-6 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -16.3 (2026 records).