Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 0-2 on the season, 0-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -10.4. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors enters the season with a power rating of -10.4, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors host New Mexico State next in Week 2. In 2025, Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors went 9-4 overall, 9-4 against the spread, and 5-8 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Power Rating of -10.4 is 10.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors have logged 4,802 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 37,264 miles, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.
Micah Alejado QB, Pofele Ashlock WR, Audric Harris WR, Cam Barfield RB, DeVon Rice RB, Ethan Spencer OL, Dean Briski OL, Denaris DeRosa Jr. OL
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina EDGE, Jamih Otis LB, Wynden Ho'ohuli LB, Elijah Palmer CB, Caleb Brown CB, Matagi Thompson S
Sean Olvera-Harle K, Gehrig Heil P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 3 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Week 4 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Week 5 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Week 7 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Week 8 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 6-3 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 7-3 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 8-4 | 4-8 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 9-4 | 5-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -6.3 in the preseason and finished -10.4 after week 2, a move of -4.1 points. High -6.3 (the preseason), low -10.4 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +7.4 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 3.6 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| UNLV | 10 | 4-6 | 3-6-1 |
| New Mexico State | 4 | 3-1 | 1-2-1 |
| Wyoming | 7 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| San José State | 9 | 4-5 | 3-6 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Nevada | 9 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Arizona State, Northern Illinois, UTEP, North Dakota State, Sacramento State.
Week 037,264 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Stanford | 2,401 mi | 4,802 mi |
| Week 1 | UNLV | Home | 4,802 mi |
| Week 2 | New Mexico State | Home | 4,802 mi |
| Week 3 | - | Bye | |
| Week 4 | Wyoming | 3,325 mi | 11,453 mi |
| Week 5 | San José State | Home | 11,453 mi |
| Week 6 | Arizona State | 2,916 mi | 17,286 mi |
| Week 7 | New Mexico | Home | 17,286 mi |
| Week 8 | Northern Illinois | 4,194 mi | 25,674 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | UTEP | 3,228 mi | 32,131 mi |
| Week 11 | North Dakota State | Home | 32,131 mi |
| Week 12 | Nevada | 2,567 mi | 37,264 mi |
| Week 13 | Sacramento State | Home | 37,264 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Micah Alejado has been productive through the air, completing 30 of 50 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns against Stanford, but the offense has struggled to turn drives into points. In the season opener, Hawai'i scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns to nearly erase a 16-point deficit, showing the quick-strike capability of the spread attack. Against UNLV, the offense outgained the Rebels 185-147 in the second half but managed only three points, with drives ending in a turnover on downs, a punt, and an interception. The unit ranks among the conference's best in passing efficiency, but red zone execution and consistency over four quarters remain major concerns.
Hawai'i returned only three starters on defense, losing two all-league defensive linemen and linebacker Jamih Otis to an ACL tear. The inexperience showed against Stanford, where the defense allowed 310 passing yards and three rushing touchdowns, and a botched punt return led to a safety. Against UNLV, the defense gave up 364 total yards and 21 points, including a 50-yard touchdown run that sealed the game. Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina has been the lone proven pass rusher, but the front seven has struggled to generate consistent pressure, and the secondary has been exploited by opposing quarterbacks. Until the defense shows it can stop a competent offense, Hawai'i will be forced into shootouts it may not win.
Hawai'i's home-field advantage was expected to be a major factor, especially with three conference contenders visiting Honolulu this season. However, in the home opener against UNLV, the Rainbow Warriors fell 21-6, failing to cover as 3-point underdogs. The team had eight days of rest and no travel, yet the offense managed just six points. The venue's home-field value is still among the strongest in the Mountain West, but the team has not yet translated that into results. With New Mexico State, a team with a lower power rating, coming to town next, Hawai'i will need to prove it can protect its home turf to stay competitive in the conference race.
A botched fair catch on the opening kick of the second half against Stanford led to a drive starting at the 6-yard line, and a subsequent blocked punt resulted in a safety. Those errors turned a close game into a 16-point deficit that Hawai'i nearly overcame but ultimately could not. The special teams unit also lost All-America placekicker Kansei Matsuzawa, and Sean Olvera-Harle has yet to establish himself as a reliable replacement. Cam Barfield, a second-team All-MWC return specialist, has not provided the spark needed in the return game. These mistakes have cost the team valuable field position and momentum in both losses.
Hawai'i has shown it can compete in bursts, as evidenced by the fourth-quarter comeback attempt at Stanford and the second-half dominance against UNLV. However, the team has been outscored 37-13 in the first three quarters combined, forcing them to play from behind. Alejado's experience and the slot duo of Pofele Ashlock and Audric Harris give the offense a high ceiling, but the unit must find a way to score early and avoid the turnovers that have plagued them late in games. With a favorable home stretch ahead, including a matchup against a weaker New Mexico State team, Hawai'i has a chance to right the ship, but only if it can play a complete game on both sides of the ball.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 0-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -10.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors travels 37,264 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 0-2 overall, 0-2 ATS, power rating -10.4 (2026 records).