Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

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Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 0-2 on the season, 0-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -10.4. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors enters the season with a power rating of -10.4, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors host New Mexico State next in Week 2. In 2025, Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors went 9-4 overall, 9-4 against the spread, and 5-8 on totals.

Conference: Mountain West Conference
Stadium: Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Power Rating (most current): -10.4
HFA Rating:3.8 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 0-2
2026 ATS: 0-2
2026 O/U: 1-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Power Rating of -10.4 is 10.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors have logged 4,802 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 37,264 miles, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachTimmy Chang
Tenure4 seasons
Record22-29
Offensive coordinatorAnthony Arceneaux
Defensive coordinatorDennis Thurman

Offense

Micah Alejado QB, Pofele Ashlock WR, Audric Harris WR, Cam Barfield RB, DeVon Rice RB, Ethan Spencer OL, Dean Briski OL, Denaris DeRosa Jr. OL

Defense

Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina EDGE, Jamih Otis LB, Wynden Ho'ohuli LB, Elijah Palmer CB, Caleb Brown CB, Matagi Thompson S

Special teams

Sean Olvera-Harle K, Gehrig Heil P

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS9-4 O/U5-8
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 01-01-00-1
Week 11-11-10-2
Week 22-12-11-2
Week 33-12-21-3
Week 43-23-21-4
Week 54-24-22-4
Week 75-25-23-4
Week 86-26-23-5
Week 106-36-34-5
Week 117-37-34-6
Week 137-47-44-7
Week 148-48-44-8
Postseason9-49-45-8

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -6.3 in the preseason and finished -10.4 after week 2, a move of -4.1 points. High -6.3 (the preseason), low -10.4 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from -6.3 to -10.4.

PreW2

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors SP+ Profile

Offence+25.371 of 138higher is better
Defence+29.893 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.612 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.0 pts
HFA measured+7.4 pts
HFA applied+3.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +7.4 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 3.6 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Stanford21-11-1
UNLV104-63-6-1
New Mexico State43-11-2-1
Wyoming73-44-3
San José State94-53-6
New Mexico53-22-3
Nevada96-36-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Arizona State, Northern Illinois, UTEP, North Dakota State, Sacramento State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home41-2532-29-5 ATS · 66 games
On the road17-4020-37 ATS · 57 games
Neutral site3-24-1 ATS · 5 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

37,264 miles - ranked 1st heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 37,264 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 037,264 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0Stanford2,401 mi4,802 mi
Week 1UNLVHome4,802 mi
Week 2New Mexico StateHome4,802 mi
Week 3-Bye
Week 4Wyoming3,325 mi11,453 mi
Week 5San José StateHome11,453 mi
Week 6Arizona State2,916 mi17,286 mi
Week 7New MexicoHome17,286 mi
Week 8Northern Illinois4,194 mi25,674 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10UTEP3,228 mi32,131 mi
Week 11North Dakota StateHome32,131 mi
Week 12Nevada2,567 mi37,264 mi
Week 13Sacramento StateHome37,264 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Season Outlook

Offense shows life but stalls in the red zone

Micah Alejado has been productive through the air, completing 30 of 50 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns against Stanford, but the offense has struggled to turn drives into points. In the season opener, Hawai'i scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns to nearly erase a 16-point deficit, showing the quick-strike capability of the spread attack. Against UNLV, the offense outgained the Rebels 185-147 in the second half but managed only three points, with drives ending in a turnover on downs, a punt, and an interception. The unit ranks among the conference's best in passing efficiency, but red zone execution and consistency over four quarters remain major concerns.

Rebuilt defense is the team's biggest vulnerability

Hawai'i returned only three starters on defense, losing two all-league defensive linemen and linebacker Jamih Otis to an ACL tear. The inexperience showed against Stanford, where the defense allowed 310 passing yards and three rushing touchdowns, and a botched punt return led to a safety. Against UNLV, the defense gave up 364 total yards and 21 points, including a 50-yard touchdown run that sealed the game. Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina has been the lone proven pass rusher, but the front seven has struggled to generate consistent pressure, and the secondary has been exploited by opposing quarterbacks. Until the defense shows it can stop a competent offense, Hawai'i will be forced into shootouts it may not win.

Home field has not provided the expected edge

Hawai'i's home-field advantage was expected to be a major factor, especially with three conference contenders visiting Honolulu this season. However, in the home opener against UNLV, the Rainbow Warriors fell 21-6, failing to cover as 3-point underdogs. The team had eight days of rest and no travel, yet the offense managed just six points. The venue's home-field value is still among the strongest in the Mountain West, but the team has not yet translated that into results. With New Mexico State, a team with a lower power rating, coming to town next, Hawai'i will need to prove it can protect its home turf to stay competitive in the conference race.

Special teams mistakes are compounding the team's problems

A botched fair catch on the opening kick of the second half against Stanford led to a drive starting at the 6-yard line, and a subsequent blocked punt resulted in a safety. Those errors turned a close game into a 16-point deficit that Hawai'i nearly overcame but ultimately could not. The special teams unit also lost All-America placekicker Kansei Matsuzawa, and Sean Olvera-Harle has yet to establish himself as a reliable replacement. Cam Barfield, a second-team All-MWC return specialist, has not provided the spark needed in the return game. These mistakes have cost the team valuable field position and momentum in both losses.

Season outlook hinges on fixing slow starts and finishing drives

Hawai'i has shown it can compete in bursts, as evidenced by the fourth-quarter comeback attempt at Stanford and the second-half dominance against UNLV. However, the team has been outscored 37-13 in the first three quarters combined, forcing them to play from behind. Alejado's experience and the slot duo of Pofele Ashlock and Audric Harris give the offense a high ceiling, but the unit must find a way to score early and avoid the turnovers that have plagued them late in games. With a favorable home stretch ahead, including a matchup against a weaker New Mexico State team, Hawai'i has a chance to right the ship, but only if it can play a complete game on both sides of the ball.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 0-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -10.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's home field advantage rating?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's 2026 win total?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors travel in 2026?

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors travels 37,264 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 0-2 overall, 0-2 ATS, power rating -10.4 (2026 records).