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Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 1-6 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -16.3. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors head to Northern Illinois next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Power Rating of -16.3 is 16.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors have logged 17,286 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 37,264 miles, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.
Micah Alejado QB, Pofele Ashlock WR, Audric Harris WR, Cam Barfield RB, DeVon Rice RB, Ethan Spencer OL, Dean Briski OL, Denaris DeRosa Jr. OL
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina EDGE, Jamih Otis LB, Wynden Ho'ohuli LB, Elijah Palmer CB, Caleb Brown CB, Matagi Thompson S
Sean Olvera-Harle K, Gehrig Heil P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 3 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Week 4 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Week 5 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Week 7 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Week 8 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 6-3 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 7-3 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 8-4 | 4-8 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 9-4 | 5-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -6.3 in the preseason and finished -16.3 after week 8, a move of -10.0 points. High -6.3 (the preseason), low -16.4 (week 7).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +7.4 is regressed to +3.8 before it is applied, a difference of 3.6 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| UNLV | 10 | 4-6 | 3-6-1 |
| New Mexico State | 4 | 3-1 | 1-2-1 |
| Wyoming | 7 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| San José State | 9 | 4-5 | 3-6 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Nevada | 9 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Arizona State, Northern Illinois, UTEP, North Dakota State, Sacramento State.
Week 037,264 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Stanford | 2,401 mi | 4,802 mi |
| Week 1 | UNLV | Home | 4,802 mi |
| Week 2 | New Mexico State | Home | 4,802 mi |
| Week 3 | - | Bye | |
| Week 4 | Wyoming | 3,325 mi | 11,453 mi |
| Week 5 | San José State | Home | 11,453 mi |
| Week 6 | Arizona State | 2,916 mi | 17,286 mi |
| Week 7 | New Mexico | Home | 17,286 mi |
| Week 8 | Northern Illinois | 4,194 mi | 25,674 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | UTEP | 3,228 mi | 32,131 mi |
| Week 11 | North Dakota State | Home | 32,131 mi |
| Week 12 | Nevada | 2,567 mi | 37,264 mi |
| Week 13 | Sacramento State | Home | 37,264 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Hawai'i entered 2026 with high hopes, led by quarterback Micah Alejado, the reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year, and a high-powered spread offense. The defense was a question mark with only three returning starters, but the team was considered a legitimate conference contender. However, the season has not gone as planned. The Rainbow Warriors sit at 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Mountain West play, with their only win coming against New Mexico State. The offense has been inconsistent, and the defense has struggled to stop the run, leading to a disappointing start.
Micah Alejado has shown flashes of brilliance, such as his 346-yard, 33-of-45 performance against New Mexico State, but the offense has been held to 16 points or fewer in four of seven games. The running game has been nearly nonexistent, and the receiving corps, led by Pofele Ashlock and Audric Harris, has not consistently produced. Alejado has thrown for over 250 yards in several games, but turnovers and red-zone inefficiency have plagued the unit. The offense that was supposed to carry the team has instead been a source of frustration.
The rebuilt defense has been a liability all season. Hawai'i has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in every game, including 154 yards and two scores to Arizona State's Cardae Mack and 143 yards to UNLV's Jai'den Thomas. The front seven, with only three returning starters and limited depth at linebacker, has been unable to stop opposing ground games. The pass defense has also had its moments, but the overall unit ranks near the bottom of the conference. Until the defense can get stops, the Rainbow Warriors will struggle to win games.
Hawai'i's home-field advantage is among the strongest in the Mountain West, but it hasn't translated to wins this season. The Rainbow Warriors have lost at home to UNLV and San José State, both games in which they were favored or competitive. The offense managed only six points against UNLV and 16 against San José State. While the team plays hard under head coach Timmy Chang, the home edge has not been enough to overcome the systemic issues on both sides of the ball. With three home games remaining, Hawai'i must find a way to protect its turf.
The biggest key for the rest of the season is whether Micah Alejado and the offense can find a rhythm. Alejado has the talent and the weapons in Ashlock, Harris, and others, but the unit has been plagued by slow starts and turnovers. The running game must improve to take pressure off the passing attack. Defensively, the Rainbow Warriors need to shore up their run defense and get more production from the front seven. With a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois next, Hawai'i has a chance to build some momentum. But the margin for error is slim, and the team must execute better in all phases to turn the season around.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -16.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's home field advantage rating is 3.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors travels 37,264 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 1st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 1-6 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -16.3 (2026 records).