San José State

By · Last updated

San José State is 4-3 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -11.9. San José State carries one of the heaviest travel loads in the FBS, ranked 11th with 13,681 miles travelled this season, a meaningful fatigue factor for away games. The San José State head to Nevada next in Week 8.

Conference: Mountain West Conference
Stadium: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Power Rating (most current): -11.9
HFA Rating:2.1 pts
2026 Win Total:5.5
2026 Record: 4-3
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 1-6

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the San José State Power Rating of -11.9 is 11.9 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. San José State have logged 11,436 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 13,681 miles, ranking 11th heaviest in the FBS.

San José State Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachKen Niumatalolo
Tenure2 seasons
Record at school10-15
Career record119-98 (18 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorCraig Stutzmann
Defensive coordinatorBojay Filimoeatu

Offense

Robert McDaniel QB, Luke Weaver QB, Daniel Rolovich QB, Malachi Riley WR, Anthony Ivey WR, Jabari Bates RB, Joseph Harbert OL

Defense

Ethan Powell LB, Zane Carter LB, Aizik Mahuka LB, Justin Stearns DL, Nate Lewis DL, Greco Carrillo CB, Kejuan Bullard Jr. CB, Brian Dukes Jr. S, Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa S

Special teams

Trent Carrizosa P, Mathias Brown K, Trajan Sinatra K

2025 Season in Review

Record3-9 ATS4-8 O/U7-5
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-10-1
Week 20-21-10-2
Week 41-21-21-2
Week 51-32-22-2
Week 62-33-23-2
Week 72-43-34-2
Week 82-53-44-3
Week 103-54-45-3
Week 113-64-55-4
Week 123-74-66-4
Week 133-84-76-5
Week 143-94-87-5

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -14.8 in the preseason and finished -11.9 after week 8, a move of +2.9 points. High -10.4 (week 3), low -14.8 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -14.8 to -11.9.

PreW8

San José State SP+ Profile

Offence+18.6114 of 138higher is better
Defence+33.6115 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.5121 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.7 pts
HFA measured+1.0 pts
HFA applied+2.1 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +1.0 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
USC20-21-1
Eastern Michigan10-10-1
Cal Poly22-02-0
Fresno State93-62-6-1
Hawai'i95-46-3
Wyoming64-24-2
Nevada94-53-5-1
New Mexico54-14-1
Air Force62-44-2
UNLV96-35-3-1

No meeting on record since 2016: UTEP, Northern Illinois, North Dakota State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home34-2425-31-2 ATS · 58 games
On the road13-4229-25-1 ATS · 55 games
Neutral site1-51-5 ATS · 6 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

13,681 miles - ranked 11th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 13,681 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 013,681 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0USC304 mi608 mi
Week 1Eastern Michigan2,045 mi4,698 mi
Week 2Cal PolyHome4,698 mi
Week 3Fresno StateHome4,698 mi
Week 4-Bye
Week 5Hawai'i2,414 mi9,527 mi
Week 6WyomingHome9,527 mi
Week 7UTEP954 mi11,436 mi
Week 8Nevada190 mi11,815 mi
Week 9New MexicoHome11,815 mi
Week 10Northern IllinoisHome11,815 mi
Week 11Air Force933 mi13,681 mi
Week 12UNLVHome13,681 mi
Week 13North Dakota StateHome13,681 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

San José State Season Outlook

Defense flips from liability to identity

The preseason concern was a rebuilt defense with only two returning starters and a new coordinator, Bojay Filimoeatu. Through seven games, that unit has become the team's backbone. After a rough start at USC, the Spartans held Eastern Michigan to 25 yards in the fourth quarter, stymied Cal Poly late, limited Hawai'i to 16 points on the road, and kept Wyoming out of the end zone until the final minutes of regulation. The secondary, led by Greco Carrillo and Kejuan Bullard Jr., and linebacker Ethan Powell have stabilized a group that was expected to struggle. The defense now gives San José State a chance to win even when the offense sputters.

Passing game searches for consistency

Luke Weaver opened his career with 550 yards and five touchdowns in two starts, but the offense has cooled significantly since. Against Fresno State, Weaver threw four interceptions and the Spartans managed only 10 points. The next week at Hawai'i, he was efficient (19-of-28, 246 yards, two touchdowns, no picks) but the scoring output was still just 20. In the overtime loss to Wyoming, Weaver threw for 251 yards but was intercepted once and came up short on a critical fourth down in the extra period. The system that produced the nation's leading receiver in each of Ken Niumatalolo's first two seasons lacks a proven No. 1 target this year; Cooper Hoch and Carson Clark have flashed but not consistently. Daniel Rolovich saw action against UTEP and threw for 193 yards and a score, adding a new wrinkle. Protecting the football remains the key to unlocking this group.

Ground game and special teams provide stability

Jabari Bates has emerged as a reliable workhorse, rushing for 119 yards at Eastern Michigan, 163 yards on 27 carries against Cal Poly, and 94 yards on 19 carries versus Fresno State. Against UTEP, Viliami Teu exploded for 156 yards and two touchdowns, including a 67-yard scoring dash, showing the Spartans have multiple backs who can carry the load. Kicker Trajan Sinatra has been steady, hitting key field goals including a 49-yarder at Eastern Michigan and two second-half field goals at Hawai'i. Punter Trent Carrizosa remains an all-league candidate. The running game and special teams have helped shorten games and protect leads, especially when the passing attack struggles.

Situational edge and schedule

San José State has already logged over 5,700 travel miles this season, with trips to USC, Eastern Michigan, Hawai'i, and UTEP. The Spartans have handled the road reasonably well, winning at Eastern Michigan and Hawai'i and covering the spread in both. However, the upcoming game at Nevada is a short trip (190 miles), and the team has had eight days of rest. The remaining schedule features conference matchups where the Spartans will need to protect the football and lean on their defense to stay in games. The experience gained from early-season road tests should serve them well down the stretch.

What to watch: Can the offense find its early-season form?

The Spartans are 4-3 and 2-1 in Mountain West play, but the offense has not matched its explosive start. Weaver's interception issues (four against Fresno State) and the lack of a consistent No. 1 receiver have limited scoring. The return of Malachi Riley, who was slated to start last season before a Week 1 injury, has not yet translated into a breakout. If Weaver can recapture his early form and the running game continues to produce, San José State has the defense to contend in the conference. The biggest question is whether the passing game can avoid turnovers and convert red-zone opportunities. The next few games will reveal whether this team is a true contender or still a work in progress.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is San José State's against-the-spread record in 2026?

San José State is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is San José State's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

San José State holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -11.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is San José State's home field advantage rating?

San José State's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is San José State's 2026 win total?

San José State's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at +155 over and -200 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does San José State travel in 2026?

San José State travels 13,681 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 11th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

San José State: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -11.9 (2026 records).