San José State is 1-1 on the season, 2-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -10.8. San José State enters the season with a power rating of -10.8, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The San José State host Cal Poly next in Week 2. In 2025, San José State went 3-9 overall, 4-8 against the spread, and 7-5 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the San José State Power Rating of -10.8 is 10.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. San José State have logged 4,698 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 13,681 miles, ranking 11th heaviest in the FBS.
Robert McDaniel QB, Luke Weaver QB, Daniel Rolovich QB, Malachi Riley WR, Anthony Ivey WR, Jabari Bates RB, Joseph Harbert OL
Ethan Powell LB, Zane Carter LB, Aizik Mahuka LB, Justin Stearns DL, Nate Lewis DL, Greco Carrillo CB, Kejuan Bullard Jr. CB, Brian Dukes Jr. S, Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa S
Trent Carrizosa P, Mathias Brown K, Trajan Sinatra K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 3-9 | 4-8 | 7-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -14.8 in the preseason and finished -10.8 after week 2, a move of +4.1 points. High -10.8 (week 2), low -14.8 (the preseason).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +1.0 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cal Poly | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Fresno State | 9 | 3-6 | 2-6-1 |
| Hawai'i | 9 | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Wyoming | 6 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Nevada | 9 | 4-5 | 3-5-1 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Air Force | 6 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| UNLV | 9 | 6-3 | 5-3-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: UTEP, Northern Illinois, North Dakota State.
Week 013,681 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | USC | 304 mi | 608 mi |
| Week 1 | Eastern Michigan | 2,045 mi | 4,698 mi |
| Week 2 | Cal Poly | Home | 4,698 mi |
| Week 3 | Fresno State | Home | 4,698 mi |
| Week 4 | - | Bye | |
| Week 5 | Hawai'i | 2,414 mi | 9,527 mi |
| Week 6 | Wyoming | Home | 9,527 mi |
| Week 7 | UTEP | 954 mi | 11,436 mi |
| Week 8 | Nevada | 190 mi | 11,815 mi |
| Week 9 | New Mexico | Home | 11,815 mi |
| Week 10 | Northern Illinois | Home | 11,815 mi |
| Week 11 | Air Force | 933 mi | 13,681 mi |
| Week 12 | UNLV | Home | 13,681 mi |
| Week 13 | North Dakota State | Home | 13,681 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
After a preseason battle among Robert McDaniel, Luke Weaver, and freshman Daniel Rolovich, Weaver has clearly taken control. In the opener at USC, he threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score, mostly against backups but showing the ability to extend plays. Against Eastern Michigan, he was even better, completing 23 of 39 passes for 316 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead 40-yard strike to Cooper Hoch. His mobility and willingness to push the ball downfield have made the Spartans' pass-heavy system dangerous, and he has already cut down on the interception problem that plagued the team last year, throwing just one pick in two games.
San José State produced the nation's top receiver in each of Ken Niumatalolo's first two seasons, but both Danny Scudero and Nick Nash are gone. The new group is emerging quickly. Cooper Hoch has become Weaver's favorite target, hauling in two touchdown catches and 115 yards against Eastern Michigan. Malachi Riley, who missed all of 2025 with injury, and Penn State transfer Anthony Ivey have yet to break out, but the early production from Hoch and others like Jerry McClure and Jordan Anderson, who both scored against USC, shows the system keeps finding ways to get playmakers the ball.
The Spartans returned only two defensive starters and brought in a new coordinator, Bojay Filimoeatu, after a 2025 season that saw them allow the Mountain West's second-highest passer rating and tie for a league-low seven interceptions. Against USC, the unit gave up 35 points in the first three quarters before tightening up. At Eastern Michigan, they allowed just 25 yards in the fourth quarter, which allowed the offense to rally. Key pieces like corner Greco Carrillo and linebacker Zane Carter are back from injuries, and the front seven, led by Justin Stearns and Nate Lewis, is still gaining experience. The improvement in crunch time is encouraging, but consistency over four quarters remains a question.
Bates averaged 7.1 yards per carry as a reserve last year, and he has stepped into the lead back role effectively. Against Eastern Michigan, he rushed for 119 yards, giving the Spartans a balanced attack that keeps defenses honest. His production, combined with Weaver's passing, helped San José State control the clock late and secure the win. If Bates can maintain that level, the offense will be much harder to stop than the pass-heavy unit that threw 17 interceptions a year ago.
After a 3-9 season that snapped a three-year bowl streak, the Spartans have already shown they can compete, covering a massive spread against USC and winning at Eastern Michigan as underdogs. Their next game is a home date with FCS Cal Poly, where they are heavy favorites, before Mountain West play begins. The conference slate will determine whether this is a true turnaround, and the defense's ability to hold up against better offenses will be the key. With Weaver playing well and Bates providing balance, San José State has a real chance to exceed the low expectations set by last year's record.
San José State is 2-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
San José State holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -10.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
San José State's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
San José State's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at +155 over and -200 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
San José State travels 13,681 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 11th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
San José State: 1-1 overall, 2-0 ATS, power rating -10.8 (2026 records).
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