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Air Force Falcons is 5-2 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.6. Air Force Falcons is 5-2 on the season, with no single factor standing out strongly in the current data. The Air Force Falcons host UConn next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Air Force Falcons Power Rating of -0.6 is 0.6 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Air Force Falcons have logged 3,672 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,516 miles, ranking 61st heaviest in the FBS.
Liam Szarka QB, Owen Allen FB, Luke Vonderhaar OL, Jonah Dawson WR
Blake Fletcher LB, Dallas Daley LB, Isaac Hubert LB, Roger Jones Jr. S, Mikhail Seiken CB, Korey Johnson CB, Max Mustell S
Jacob Medina K, Will Duncan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Week 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Week 6 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Week 7 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 6-0 |
| Week 8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 6-1 |
| Week 10 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 6-2 |
| Week 11 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 7-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -5.4 in the preseason and finished -0.6 after week 8, a move of +4.8 points. High -0.6 (week 8), low -6.1 (week 4).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.1 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 5 | 4-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Navy | 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| UNLV | 6 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Wyoming | 9 | 4-5 | 2-7 |
| UConn | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Army | 10 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| San José State | 6 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| New Mexico | 9 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Duquesne, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, UTEP.
Week 07,516 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Duquesne | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | North Dakota State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | - | Bye | |
| Week 4 | Nevada | 803 mi | 1,606 mi |
| Week 5 | Navy | Home | 1,606 mi |
| Week 6 | Northern Illinois | 869 mi | 3,344 mi |
| Week 7 | UNLV | Home | 3,344 mi |
| Week 8 | Wyoming | 164 mi | 3,672 mi |
| Week 9 | UConn | Home | 3,672 mi |
| Week 10 | Army | 1,634 mi | 6,939 mi |
| Week 11 | San José State | Home | 6,939 mi |
| Week 12 | UTEP | Home | 6,939 mi |
| Week 13 | New Mexico | 288 mi | 7,516 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Air Force has leaned on a deep and versatile rushing attack to open the season 5-1, including a 3-1 mark in Mountain West play. The Falcons opened with 431 rushing yards in a 34-0 shutout of Duquesne, with 17 different players carrying the ball. Against Northern Illinois, with Liam Szarka limited, Evan Medders (114 yards) and Owen Allen (100 yards) each topped the century mark and combined for four touchdowns, and Air Force did not complete a pass yet won 28-7. Medders then exploded for 152 yards and three scores in a 41-31 win over UNLV, while Rocco Conti added 103 yards and Allen 96. The offense has shown it can move the ball on the ground regardless of who is under center, and that depth has been a major asset.
The defensive line entered the season as the biggest question after losing every starter to graduation, and North Dakota State exposed that inexperience in a 38-32 loss, gashing the Falcons on the ground and through the air. But since then, the unit has stiffened considerably. Navy managed only nine points, and Northern Illinois was held to seven. The veteran back eight, led by linebackers Blake Fletcher (who returned an interception 85 yards for a touchdown against NDSU), Dallas Daley, and Isaac Hubert, along with safeties Roger Jones Jr. and Max Mustell, has been the strength of the team. If the front can continue to hold up, this defense can keep Air Force in every game.
Air Force has not fumbled the ball all season, a streak that extends back to the second quarter against New Mexico in 2025, spanning 549 total plays. That remarkable ball security fits the Falcons' possession-based, clock-controlling style. On the other side, the defense has shown a knack for creating turnovers, none bigger than Fletcher's 85-yard pick-six against North Dakota State. Opposing coaches have noted that turning the ball over against Air Force is fatal because the Falcons make you pay. That formula has been a key driver of the 5-1 record.
Liam Szarka remains the centerpiece of the offense when healthy, but his absence or limited availability has not slowed the Falcons. Evan Medders has stepped in and produced, both on the ground and as a leader. Kemper Hodges has also contributed, adding 52 rushing yards against Northern Illinois. The ability to plug in multiple quarterbacks who can run the option effectively has given Air Force a dimension that opponents struggle to prepare for. Szarka's dual-threat ability (he led the Mountain West in rushing touchdowns last season) remains a weapon, but the offense no longer relies solely on him.
At 5-1, Air Force has positioned itself as a contender in the Mountain West, especially with Boise State and San Diego State no longer in the conference. The schedule remains challenging, with road trips to Wyoming and others, but the Falcons have already shown they can win away from home (at Nevada, at Northern Illinois). The biggest question is whether the defensive front can hold up against stronger running teams, and whether the passing game can provide a spark if opponents load the box. With a veteran defense, a deep rushing attack, and excellent ball security, Air Force looks poised to challenge for a top-three finish in the league and possibly more. The arrow is pointing up in Troy Calhoun's 20th season.
Air Force Falcons is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
Air Force Falcons holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Air Force Falcons's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Air Force Falcons's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Air Force Falcons travels 7,516 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 61st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Air Force Falcons: 5-2 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -0.6 (2026 records).