Air Force Falcons is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -4.3. Air Force Falcons enters the season with a power rating of -4.3, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Air Force Falcons host North Dakota State next in Week 2. In 2025, Air Force Falcons went 4-8 overall, 5-7 against the spread, and 7-5 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Air Force Falcons Power Rating of -4.3 is 4.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Air Force Falcons have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,516 miles, ranking 61st heaviest in the FBS.
Liam Szarka QB, Owen Allen FB, Luke Vonderhaar OL, Jonah Dawson WR
Blake Fletcher LB, Dallas Daley LB, Isaac Hubert LB, Roger Jones Jr. S, Mikhail Seiken CB, Korey Johnson CB, Max Mustell S
Jacob Medina K, Will Duncan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Week 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Week 6 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Week 7 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 6-0 |
| Week 8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 6-1 |
| Week 10 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 6-2 |
| Week 11 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 7-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -5.4 in the preseason and finished -4.3 after week 2, a move of +1.1 points. High -4.3 (week 2), low -5.8 (week 1).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.1 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 5 | 4-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Navy | 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| UNLV | 6 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Wyoming | 9 | 4-5 | 2-7 |
| UConn | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Army | 10 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| San José State | 6 | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| New Mexico | 9 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Duquesne, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, UTEP.
Week 07,516 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Duquesne | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | North Dakota State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | - | Bye | |
| Week 4 | Nevada | 803 mi | 1,606 mi |
| Week 5 | Navy | Home | 1,606 mi |
| Week 6 | Northern Illinois | 869 mi | 3,344 mi |
| Week 7 | UNLV | Home | 3,344 mi |
| Week 8 | Wyoming | 164 mi | 3,672 mi |
| Week 9 | UConn | Home | 3,672 mi |
| Week 10 | Army | 1,634 mi | 6,939 mi |
| Week 11 | San José State | Home | 6,939 mi |
| Week 12 | UTEP | Home | 6,939 mi |
| Week 13 | New Mexico | 288 mi | 7,516 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Air Force opened the season with a 34-0 shutout of Duquesne, racking up 431 rushing yards on the ground. Liam Szarka scored twice on short runs, while Rocco Conti and Kemper Hodges each topped 70 yards. The Falcons attempted just five passes, a clear sign that the triple-option identity is fully intact. With Szarka and fullback Owen Allen both back from productive 2025 campaigns, the rushing attack should remain the engine of the offense all season.
After allowing 30.3 points per game last year, the Falcons responded with a shutout in Week 1. The rebuilt defensive line was untested against an FCS opponent, but the veteran back eight, led by linebacker Blake Fletcher and safety Max Mustell, controlled the game. Duquesne managed only 107 total yards, and the Falcons forced a quick three-and-out on the opening drive. The real test comes against North Dakota State, a top FCS program with a physical run game, which will reveal whether the front seven can hold up without transfer help.
Jacob Medina entered the season as the No. 1 kicker after losing the job last year, but it was Carter Cremascoli who handled field goals in the opener, converting two. That rotation is worth monitoring, as close conference games could hinge on reliable kicking. Will Duncan took over punting duties and had a quiet day given the defense's dominance. Consistency in the kicking game will be a key factor in tight Mountain West matchups later in the season.
The Falcons face North Dakota State in Week 2, a team that is currently favored by 2.5 points and has a 54% win probability in the prediction market. This is a significant step up from Duquesne and will test Air Force's offensive line and defensive front against a physical, disciplined opponent. After that, the Mountain West slate begins, with no Boise State or San Diego State on the schedule, opening a path to a top-three finish if the Falcons can handle the Bison.
With a veteran quarterback in Liam Szarka, an experienced defense, and a favorable conference landscape, Air Force has a realistic shot at finishing above .500 for the first time since 2023. The Falcons have won 20 straight season openers and are 31-0 all-time against FCS teams, but the real measure will come against FBS competition. If the offensive line gels and the defense continues to force turnovers, a bowl game and a top-three Mountain West finish are attainable goals for Troy Calhoun's 20th season.
Air Force Falcons is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Air Force Falcons holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -4.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Air Force Falcons's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Air Force Falcons's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Air Force Falcons travels 7,516 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 61st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Air Force Falcons: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -4.3 (2026 records).
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