Air Force Falcons

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Air Force Falcons is 5-2 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.6. Air Force Falcons is 5-2 on the season, with no single factor standing out strongly in the current data. The Air Force Falcons host UConn next in Week 9.

Conference: Mountain West Conference
Stadium: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO
Power Rating (most current): -0.6
HFA Rating:2.5 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 5-2
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 3-4

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Air Force Falcons Power Rating of -0.6 is 0.6 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Air Force Falcons have logged 3,672 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,516 miles, ranking 61st heaviest in the FBS.

Air Force Falcons Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachTroy Calhoun
Tenure19 seasons
Record139-97
Offensive coordinatorMike Thiessen
Defensive coordinatorSteve Russ

Offense

Liam Szarka QB, Owen Allen FB, Luke Vonderhaar OL, Jonah Dawson WR

Defense

Blake Fletcher LB, Dallas Daley LB, Isaac Hubert LB, Roger Jones Jr. S, Mikhail Seiken CB, Korey Johnson CB, Max Mustell S

Special teams

Jacob Medina K, Will Duncan P

2025 Season in Review

Record4-8 ATS5-7 O/U7-5
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-01-0
Week 31-11-12-0
Week 41-21-23-0
Week 51-31-34-0
Week 61-42-35-0
Week 71-53-36-0
Week 82-53-46-1
Week 102-63-56-2
Week 113-64-56-3
Week 123-74-66-4
Week 133-84-76-5
Week 144-85-77-5

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -5.4 in the preseason and finished -0.6 after week 8, a move of +4.8 points. High -0.6 (week 8), low -6.1 (week 4).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -5.4 to -0.6.

PreW8

Air Force Falcons SP+ Profile

Offence+25.370 of 138higher is better
Defence+27.783 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.166 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.1 pts
HFA measured+2.4 pts
HFA applied+2.5 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.1 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Nevada54-12-2-1
Navy106-46-4
UNLV64-23-3
Wyoming94-52-7
UConn10-10-1
Army103-73-7
San José State64-22-4
New Mexico95-44-5

No meeting on record since 2016: Duquesne, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, UTEP.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home39-1826-30-1 ATS · 57 games
On the road26-2627-23-2 ATS · 52 games
Neutral site7-35-5 ATS · 10 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

7,516 miles - ranked 61st heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 7,516 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 07,516 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1DuquesneHome0 mi
Week 2North Dakota StateHome0 mi
Week 3-Bye
Week 4Nevada803 mi1,606 mi
Week 5NavyHome1,606 mi
Week 6Northern Illinois869 mi3,344 mi
Week 7UNLVHome3,344 mi
Week 8Wyoming164 mi3,672 mi
Week 9UConnHome3,672 mi
Week 10Army1,634 mi6,939 mi
Week 11San José StateHome6,939 mi
Week 12UTEPHome6,939 mi
Week 13New Mexico288 mi7,516 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Air Force Falcons Season Outlook

Ground game powers a 5-1 start

Air Force has leaned on a deep and versatile rushing attack to open the season 5-1, including a 3-1 mark in Mountain West play. The Falcons opened with 431 rushing yards in a 34-0 shutout of Duquesne, with 17 different players carrying the ball. Against Northern Illinois, with Liam Szarka limited, Evan Medders (114 yards) and Owen Allen (100 yards) each topped the century mark and combined for four touchdowns, and Air Force did not complete a pass yet won 28-7. Medders then exploded for 152 yards and three scores in a 41-31 win over UNLV, while Rocco Conti added 103 yards and Allen 96. The offense has shown it can move the ball on the ground regardless of who is under center, and that depth has been a major asset.

Defense rounding into form after early test

The defensive line entered the season as the biggest question after losing every starter to graduation, and North Dakota State exposed that inexperience in a 38-32 loss, gashing the Falcons on the ground and through the air. But since then, the unit has stiffened considerably. Navy managed only nine points, and Northern Illinois was held to seven. The veteran back eight, led by linebackers Blake Fletcher (who returned an interception 85 yards for a touchdown against NDSU), Dallas Daley, and Isaac Hubert, along with safeties Roger Jones Jr. and Max Mustell, has been the strength of the team. If the front can continue to hold up, this defense can keep Air Force in every game.

Ball security and takeaways define the identity

Air Force has not fumbled the ball all season, a streak that extends back to the second quarter against New Mexico in 2025, spanning 549 total plays. That remarkable ball security fits the Falcons' possession-based, clock-controlling style. On the other side, the defense has shown a knack for creating turnovers, none bigger than Fletcher's 85-yard pick-six against North Dakota State. Opposing coaches have noted that turning the ball over against Air Force is fatal because the Falcons make you pay. That formula has been a key driver of the 5-1 record.

Quarterback depth and versatility

Liam Szarka remains the centerpiece of the offense when healthy, but his absence or limited availability has not slowed the Falcons. Evan Medders has stepped in and produced, both on the ground and as a leader. Kemper Hodges has also contributed, adding 52 rushing yards against Northern Illinois. The ability to plug in multiple quarterbacks who can run the option effectively has given Air Force a dimension that opponents struggle to prepare for. Szarka's dual-threat ability (he led the Mountain West in rushing touchdowns last season) remains a weapon, but the offense no longer relies solely on him.

What to watch: Can the Falcons keep rolling?

At 5-1, Air Force has positioned itself as a contender in the Mountain West, especially with Boise State and San Diego State no longer in the conference. The schedule remains challenging, with road trips to Wyoming and others, but the Falcons have already shown they can win away from home (at Nevada, at Northern Illinois). The biggest question is whether the defensive front can hold up against stronger running teams, and whether the passing game can provide a spark if opponents load the box. With a veteran defense, a deep rushing attack, and excellent ball security, Air Force looks poised to challenge for a top-three finish in the league and possibly more. The arrow is pointing up in Troy Calhoun's 20th season.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Air Force Falcons's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Air Force Falcons is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Air Force Falcons's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Air Force Falcons holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Air Force Falcons's home field advantage rating?

Air Force Falcons's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Air Force Falcons's 2026 win total?

Air Force Falcons's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -110 over and -120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Air Force Falcons travel in 2026?

Air Force Falcons travels 7,516 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 61st heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Air Force Falcons: 5-2 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -0.6 (2026 records).