UNLV Rebels is 1-1 on the season, 1-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.8. UNLV Rebels enters the season with a power rating of -0.8, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The UNLV Rebels head to North Texas next in Week 2. In 2025, UNLV Rebels went 10-4 overall, 7-7 against the spread, and 7-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the UNLV Rebels Power Rating of -0.8 is 0.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UNLV Rebels have logged 5,512 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 14,226 miles, ranking 10th heaviest in the FBS.
Jackson Arnold QB, Alex Orji QB, Jai'Den Thomas RB, Kayden McGee WR, Taeshaun Lyons WR, Austin Boyd OL, Will Thomas OL
Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu LB, Cam Santee LB, Kamuela Ka'aihue LB, Lucas Conti DL, Andre Porter EDGE, Landen Thomas EDGE, Jake Pope S, Kyron Chambers CB, Tony Louis-Nkuba S
Ramon Villela K, Matt Choules P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 2 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 6-0 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Week 10 | 6-2 | 4-4 | 6-2 |
| Week 11 | 7-2 | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 8-2 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 9-2 | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 10-2 | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Week 15 | 10-3 | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Postseason | 10-4 | 7-7 | 7-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -0.7 in the preseason and finished -0.8 after week 2, a move of -0.2 points. High -0.7 (the preseason), low -2.9 (week 1).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i | 10 | 6-4 | 6-3-1 |
| North Texas | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| California | 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Air Force | 6 | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Wyoming | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| New Mexico | 6 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| San José State | 9 | 3-6 | 3-5-1 |
| Nevada | 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Memphis, Akron, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois.
Week 014,226 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Memphis | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 1 | Hawai'i | 2,756 mi | 5,512 mi |
| Week 2 | North Texas | 1,044 mi | 7,600 mi |
| Week 3 | - | Bye | |
| Week 4 | Akron | 1,843 mi | 11,287 mi |
| Week 5 | California | Home | 11,287 mi |
| Week 6 | North Dakota State | Home | 11,287 mi |
| Week 7 | Air Force | 602 mi | 12,491 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Northern Illinois | Home | 12,491 mi |
| Week 10 | Wyoming | Home | 12,491 mi |
| Week 11 | New Mexico | 487 mi | 13,464 mi |
| Week 12 | San José State | 381 mi | 14,226 mi |
| Week 13 | Nevada | Home | 14,226 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Jackson Arnold has taken control of the offense after a preseason battle with Alex Orji. In the opener against Memphis, he threw for 291 yards and two touchdowns, showing he can push the ball downfield. A week later at Hawai'i, he added 116 passing yards and two rushing scores, proving he can be a dual threat. The offense has not been explosive yet, but Arnold's ability to make plays with his legs has given the Rebels a reliable floor. The question is whether he can cut down on the sacks and turnovers that plagued the Memphis loss, where he was dropped six times.
Jai'Den Thomas has picked up right where he left off after a 1,000-yard season. He rushed for 143 yards and a touchdown at Hawai'i, including a 50-yard burst that sealed the game. Against Memphis, the run game was less productive, but Thomas remains the focal point of the offense. With Arnold also contributing on the ground, UNLV has a two-pronged rushing attack that can control games. If the offensive line can open consistent lanes, Thomas is a candidate for Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year.
The offensive line, featuring Austin Boyd moving to center and Will Thomas at left tackle, struggled badly in the opener. Memphis recorded six sacks and 11 tackles for loss, repeatedly collapsing the pocket and forcing a critical turnover on downs late in the game. The unit improved somewhat against Hawai'i, but the Rebels still managed only 116 passing yards, suggesting protection issues limited the passing game. With a trip to North Texas next, the line will face another test. If they cannot keep Arnold clean, the offense will struggle to sustain drives.
After ranking 89th in scoring defense last year and returning only one starter per level, the Rebels showed vulnerability in the opener, giving up explosive plays of 48 and 36 yards to Memphis. But in Week 1 at Hawai'i, the defense tightened up, holding the Rainbow Warriors to just six points and no touchdowns. The unit forced a key interception late to seal the win. Transfers like linebacker Cam Santee and cornerback Kyron Chambers are starting to gel, but the secondary was beaten over the top in the opener. The defense needs to prove it can stop consistent drives, not just bend and occasionally break.
UNLV has already logged over 2,700 miles of travel, including a long trip to Hawai'i that they survived with a win. The schedule does not get easier, with a road game at North Texas next and more travel ahead. The Rebels have won four straight Island Showdown trophies, but their true test will be whether they can win on the mainland away from Las Vegas. With Boise State gone from the Mountain West, the conference is more open, but UNLV must prove they can win in hostile environments. Their next game at North Texas will be a good indicator of their road resilience.
UNLV Rebels is 1-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.
UNLV Rebels holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
UNLV Rebels's home field advantage rating is 2.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
UNLV Rebels's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
UNLV Rebels travels 14,226 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 10th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
UNLV Rebels: 1-1 overall, 1-1 ATS, power rating -0.8 (2026 records).
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