North Dakota State Bison

By · Last updated

North Dakota State Bison is 3-0 on the season, 2-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -2.2. North Dakota State Bison enters the season with a power rating of -2.2, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The North Dakota State Bison head to Sacramento State next in Week 3. In 2025, North Dakota State Bison went 12-1 overall, 5-5 against the spread, and 7-3 on totals.

Conference: Mountain West Conference
Stadium: Fargodome, Fargo, ND
Power Rating (most current): -2.2
HFA Rating:2.5 pts
2026 Win Total:9.5
2026 Record: 3-0
2026 ATS: 2-1
2026 O/U: 1-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 2 of 2026 the North Dakota State Bison Power Rating of -2.2 is 2.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. North Dakota State Bison have logged 1,361 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 18,929 miles, ranking 4th heaviest in the FBS.

North Dakota State Bison Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachTim Polasek
Tenure2 seasons
Record26-3
Offensive coordinatorDan Larson
Defensive coordinatorGrant Olson

Offense

Nathan Hayes QB, Kene Anene OL, DJ Scott RB, Myles Mitchell RB, Braylon Toliver RB, Reis Kessel TE, Jackson Williams WR

Defense

Donovan Woolen LB, Gavin Sell LB, Darius Givance S, Taylen Eady S, Keenan Wilson DL

Special teams

Drew Klein K, Aaron Bickerton P

2025 Season in Review

Record12-1 ATS5-5 O/U7-3
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-00-0
Week 22-01-01-0
Week 33-01-12-0
Week 54-02-13-0
Week 65-02-13-0
Week 76-03-14-0
Week 87-03-24-1
Week 98-04-24-2
Week 109-04-35-2
Week 1110-04-45-3
Week 1211-04-56-3
Week 1312-05-57-3
Week 1512-15-57-3

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -12.8 in the preseason and finished -2.2 after week 2, a move of +10.6 points. High -2.2 (week 2), low -12.8 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from -12.8 to -2.2.

PreW2

North Dakota State Bison SP+ Profile

Offence+24.482 of 138higher is better
Defence+25.867 of 138lower is better
Special teams0.074 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended4
Source spread±13.7 pts
HFA measured+2.5 pts
HFA applied+2.5 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

2026 Season Travel Profile

18,929 miles - ranked 4th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 18,929 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 018,929 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0Jacksonville StateHome0 mi
Week 1FordhamHome0 mi
Week 2Air Force680 mi1,361 mi
Week 3Sacramento State1,371 mi4,104 mi
Week 4-Bye
Week 5WyomingHome4,104 mi
Week 6UNLV1,206 mi6,515 mi
Week 7NevadaHome6,515 mi
Week 8New Mexico963 mi8,442 mi
Week 9UTEPHome8,442 mi
Week 10-Bye
Week 11Hawai'i3,804 mi16,050 mi
Week 12Northern IllinoisHome16,050 mi
Week 13San José State1,439 mi18,929 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

North Dakota State Bison Season Outlook

Smooth Start to the FBS Era

North Dakota State has opened its first FBS season with two convincing home wins, beating Jacksonville State 33-7 and shutting out Fordham 38-0. The Bison have shown they can handle the step up in competition, with the defense allowing just 170 and 135 total yards in the two games. Quarterback Nathan Hayes has been efficient, completing 14 of 22 passes for 160 yards against Jacksonville State and 18 of 22 for 210 yards against Fordham, with two touchdown passes in each game. The offense has been balanced, and the team has not trailed since the first quarter of the opener.

Offensive Line Anchors the Attack

The offensive line, which returned three starters and added Kansas transfer Kene Anene at right tackle, has been the team's biggest strength. They have controlled the line of scrimmage in both games, paving the way for DJ Scott to rush for 60 yards and two touchdowns against Fordham and for the offense to total 373 yards in that game. The line's dominance has allowed the Bison to dictate tempo and keep the defense fresh, a critical factor as they face tougher Mountain West opponents later in the season.

Defense Exceeds Expectations Despite Secondary Questions

The defense was expected to be a concern, especially at cornerback after both starters transferred, but the unit has been outstanding. They held Jacksonville State to 2 of 10 on third downs and forced three interceptions against Fordham, including a 37-yard pick-six by Marion Moore. The front seven, led by all-conference defensive tackle Keenan Wilson and linebacker Donovan Woolen, has generated consistent pressure, which has masked the inexperience in the secondary. The Bison have yet to allow a touchdown in the second half of either game.

Special Teams and Turnover Margin Provide a Boost

Kicker Drew Klein has been reliable, making field goals from 34, 44, and 42 yards in the opener, and the special teams unit contributed a touchdown when Blake Schiltz recovered an errant snap in the end zone against Jacksonville State. The Bison have also won the turnover battle, with the defense forcing four turnovers in two games while the offense has committed just one interception. This opportunistic play has helped turn close games into comfortable wins and will be crucial in tighter conference matchups.

Road Test Ahead Will Reveal True Ceiling

After two home games in the friendly confines of the Fargodome, North Dakota State hits the road for the first time as an FBS team, traveling to Air Force. The Bison are slight favorites, but this will be their first true test against a service academy with a unique option offense and a disciplined defense. The game will show whether the offensive line can dominate away from home and whether the young secondary can hold up against a more creative passing attack. A win would solidify their status as a contender in the Mountain West, while a loss would raise questions about their ability to win on the road in their new conference.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is North Dakota State Bison's against-the-spread record in 2026?

North Dakota State Bison is 2-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 67% of games.

What is North Dakota State Bison's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

North Dakota State Bison holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -2.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is North Dakota State Bison's home field advantage rating?

North Dakota State Bison's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is North Dakota State Bison's 2026 win total?

North Dakota State Bison's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at +180 over and -240 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does North Dakota State Bison travel in 2026?

North Dakota State Bison travels 18,929 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 4th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

North Dakota State Bison: 3-0 overall, 2-1 ATS, power rating -2.2 (2026 records).