North Dakota State Bison

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North Dakota State Bison is 6-2 on the season, 3-5 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +2.6. North Dakota State Bison carries one of the heaviest travel loads in the FBS, ranked 4th with 18,929 miles travelled this season, a meaningful fatigue factor for away games. The North Dakota State Bison host UTEP next in Week 9.

Conference: Mountain West Conference
Stadium: Fargodome, Fargo, ND
Power Rating (most current): +2.6
HFA Rating:2.5 pts
2026 Win Total:9.5
2026 Record: 6-2
2026 ATS: 3-5
2026 O/U: 2-6

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the North Dakota State Bison Power Rating of +2.6 is 2.6 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. North Dakota State Bison have logged 8,442 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 18,929 miles, ranking 4th heaviest in the FBS.

North Dakota State Bison Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachTim Polasek
Tenure2 seasons
Record26-3
Offensive coordinatorDan Larson
Defensive coordinatorGrant Olson

Offense

Nathan Hayes QB, Kene Anene OL, DJ Scott RB, Myles Mitchell RB, Braylon Toliver RB, Reis Kessel TE, Jackson Williams WR

Defense

Donovan Woolen LB, Gavin Sell LB, Darius Givance S, Taylen Eady S, Keenan Wilson DL

Special teams

Drew Klein K, Aaron Bickerton P

2025 Season in Review

Record12-1 ATS5-5 O/U7-3
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-00-0
Week 22-01-01-0
Week 33-01-12-0
Week 54-02-13-0
Week 65-02-13-0
Week 76-03-14-0
Week 87-03-24-1
Week 98-04-24-2
Week 109-04-35-2
Week 1110-04-45-3
Week 1211-04-56-3
Week 1312-05-57-3
Week 1512-15-57-3

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -12.8 in the preseason and finished +2.6 after week 8, a move of +15.4 points. High +2.6 (week 8), low -12.8 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -12.8 to +2.6.

PreW8

North Dakota State Bison SP+ Profile

Offence+24.482 of 138higher is better
Defence+25.867 of 138lower is better
Special teams0.074 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended4
Source spread±13.7 pts
HFA measured+2.5 pts
HFA applied+2.5 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

2026 Season Travel Profile

18,929 miles - ranked 4th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 18,929 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 018,929 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0Jacksonville StateHome0 mi
Week 1FordhamHome0 mi
Week 2Air Force680 mi1,361 mi
Week 3Sacramento State1,371 mi4,104 mi
Week 4-Bye
Week 5WyomingHome4,104 mi
Week 6UNLV1,206 mi6,515 mi
Week 7NevadaHome6,515 mi
Week 8New Mexico963 mi8,442 mi
Week 9UTEPHome8,442 mi
Week 10-Bye
Week 11Hawai'i3,804 mi16,050 mi
Week 12Northern IllinoisHome16,050 mi
Week 13San José State1,439 mi18,929 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

North Dakota State Bison Season Outlook

A 6-1 start with the lone stumble on the road

North Dakota State has opened its first FBS season at 6-1, with the only loss a 13-7 decision at UNLV in Week 6. The Bison have otherwise been dominant, outscoring opponents 33-7, 38-0, 38-32, 31-10, 28-0, and 31-17. The UNLV game stands out as the one time the offense stalled, managing a single touchdown. The team has shown it can win in different ways: blowouts at home, a close road win at Air Force, and a comeback against Nevada after trailing 11-0 early.

The rebuilt secondary has been a strength, not a weakness

The preseason concern was that losing both starting cornerbacks to the transfer portal and replacing them with Division II transfers would be a vulnerability. Instead, the secondary has been a key part of a defense that has allowed 7, 0, 32, 10, 0, 13, and 17 points. Opponents have been held to 170, 135, 103, and 162 passing yards in several games, and the Bison have intercepted multiple passes, including a pick-six by Marion Moore against Fordham and a fumble return for a touchdown by Darius Givance against Sacramento State. The one blemish was an 85-yard pick-six thrown by Nathan Hayes at Air Force, which was a mistake by the quarterback rather than a coverage bust.

Nathan Hayes manages the offense efficiently, but the run game is committee-driven

Quarterback Nathan Hayes has been a steady game manager, completing 14 of 22 for 160 yards against Jacksonville State, 18 of 22 for 210 against Fordham, 15 of 23 for 228 at Air Force, 14 of 24 for 210 at Sacramento State, and 19 of 25 for 153 against Nevada. He has thrown two touchdown passes in several games and also contributes on the ground, scoring on a 17-yard run at Air Force and two rushing touchdowns against Wyoming. The running back room has been by committee: DJ Scott scored twice against Fordham and had a 42-yard touchdown run at Sacramento State, while Myles Mitchell had a 31-yard touchdown run on the opening drive at Air Force and a 9-yard score at Sacramento State. The offensive line, anchored by three returning starters and Kansas transfer Kene Anene at right tackle, has kept Hayes clean and opened holes for the run game.

Special teams and hidden yardage provide a consistent edge

Kicker Drew Klein has been reliable, making all four of his field goal attempts this season, including a program-record 56-yarder at Air Force. The Bison have also scored non-offensive touchdowns in multiple games: a recovered errant snap in the end zone against Jacksonville State, a pick-six by Marion Moore against Fordham, a fumble return by Darius Givance at Sacramento State, and a 100-yard return of a missed field goal by Jackson Williams against Nevada. These hidden yards have turned good performances into comfortable wins and given the Bison a margin for error that most teams do not have.

The schedule ramps up with a challenging road test at New Mexico

North Dakota State faces a stiff test in Week 8 at New Mexico, which is 5-1 and has a power rating of 5.61. The Bison are underdogs on the road for the first time this season, with the line at New Mexico -4.5 and a prediction market giving NDSU only a 36 percent chance to win. The game is outdoors, which could affect the passing game, though the Bison have already won outdoors at Air Force and Sacramento State. After New Mexico, the schedule remains challenging, and the Bison will need to continue to rely on their defense, efficient offense, and special teams to contend in the Mountain West. The biggest question is whether the offense can consistently score against stronger defenses, as it did before the UNLV game.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is North Dakota State Bison's against-the-spread record in 2026?

North Dakota State Bison is 3-5 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 38% of games.

What is North Dakota State Bison's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

North Dakota State Bison holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +2.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is North Dakota State Bison's home field advantage rating?

North Dakota State Bison's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is North Dakota State Bison's 2026 win total?

North Dakota State Bison's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at +180 over and -240 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does North Dakota State Bison travel in 2026?

North Dakota State Bison travels 18,929 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 4th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

North Dakota State Bison: 6-2 overall, 3-5 ATS, power rating +2.6 (2026 records).