Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -18.4. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders enters the season with a power rating of -18.4, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders head to Marshall next in Week 2. In 2025, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders went 3-9 overall, 6-6 against the spread, and 6-6 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Power Rating of -18.4 is 18.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,580 miles, ranking 93rd heaviest in the FBS.
Roman Gagliano QB, AJ Jones WR, Antonio Martin Jr. RB, DJ Taylor RB, Otto Janse Van Rensburg OL
Zeion Simpson-Smith DL, Reggie Johnson LB, Jackson Lowe CB
Dominic Bourgeois K, Ashton Logan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Week 9 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Week 10 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 1-8 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 1-9 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 2-9 | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 3-9 | 6-6 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -20.2 in the preseason and finished -18.4 after week 2, a move of +1.8 points. High -18.4 (week 2), low -20.3 (week 1).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.6 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murray State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Marshall | 7 | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Nevada | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Jacksonville State | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Delaware | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Florida International | 10 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Kennesaw State | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Western Kentucky | 10 | 1-9 | 3-7 |
| Liberty | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Sam Houston | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| New Mexico State | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Kansas.
Week 05,580 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Murray State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Marshall | 281 mi | 562 mi |
| Week 3 | Nevada | Home | 562 mi |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville State | 144 mi | 850 mi |
| Week 5 | Kansas | 533 mi | 1,916 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Delaware | Home | 1,916 mi |
| Week 8 | Florida International | 781 mi | 3,479 mi |
| Week 9 | Kennesaw State | Home | 3,479 mi |
| Week 10 | Western Kentucky | Home | 3,479 mi |
| Week 11 | Liberty | 413 mi | 4,305 mi |
| Week 12 | Sam Houston | 638 mi | 5,580 mi |
| Week 13 | New Mexico State | Home | 5,580 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The Blue Raiders enter 2026 with sophomore Roman Gagliano as the full-time starting quarterback after he threw for 1,005 yards and seven scores in five games last year. He is working with first-year offensive coordinator Anthony Scelfo, and the offense has just one returning starter in receiver AJ Jones. The unit showed promise in the season opener, a 38-14 win over Murray State, but the passing game remains unproven against tougher competition. Gagliano's development and chemistry with a largely new skill group will be central to whether this offense can improve on last year's struggles.
Middle Tennessee's running game looks like its most reliable strength. DJ Taylor averaged 7.7 yards per carry last season on limited touches, and Kansas State transfer Antonio Martin Jr. adds experience and power. In the opener, the Blue Raiders leaned on the ground game to control the tempo and build a comfortable lead. If the offensive line, which allowed 30 sacks in 2025, can open consistent lanes, this backfield tandem could keep the chains moving and take pressure off the passing attack. The line's improvement is a key factor, especially with Otto Janse Van Rensburg returning from injury to anchor the unit.
The Blue Raiders' defense lost its entire starting defensive line and its top four tacklers from a unit that allowed 30.9 points per game last season. Zeion Simpson-Smith, who had three sacks as a freshman, is the most experienced returning piece up front, and linebacker Reggie Johnson brings 34 tackles and 3.5 sacks from last year. However, the team returns only 7.5 of its 23 sacks, and the secondary ranked 11th in Conference USA in pass defense. The opener against Murray State did not provide a true test, so the real evaluation begins now. How this rebuilt front seven holds up against stronger offenses will define the season.
Punter Ashton Logan is a proven weapon, averaging 44.7 yards per punt last season and dropping 29 of 66 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. That field-position advantage could be crucial in close conference games. Kicker Dominic Bourgeois, a Division III transfer, handled the placekicking duties in the opener and converted his opportunities. DJ Taylor also brings experience as a kick returner, averaging 17.4 yards per return last year. If the offense sputters at times, strong punting and reliable kicking could keep Middle Tennessee competitive in tight contests.
Head coach Derek Mason is 6-18 in two seasons at Middle Tennessee, and this year feels pivotal. The Blue Raiders ended 2025 with back-to-back wins, scoring 31 points in each, but they still face a tough road ahead. The schedule includes a Week 2 trip to Marshall, where they are heavy underdogs, and the team has dealt with significant coaching turnover, including losing offensive line coach Kendall Simmons midseason last year. Consistency will be hard to find with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. If Mason can build on the opener's momentum and steal a few conference wins, the season could be a step forward; if not, his tenure may be in jeopardy.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -18.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders's home field advantage rating is 2.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at +140 over and -180 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders travels 5,580 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 93rd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -18.4 (2026 records).
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