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31
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Missouri Tigers is 5-2 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +14.0. Missouri Tigers holds a power rating of +14.0, ranking them among the stronger teams in the FBS and suggesting consistent line value as a favourite. The Missouri Tigers head to Arkansas next in Week 9.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Missouri Tigers Power Rating of +14.0 is 14.0 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Missouri Tigers have logged 1,870 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,526 miles, ranking 129th heaviest in the FBS.
Ahmad Hardy RB, Jamal Roberts RB, Cayden Green OL, Dominick Giudice OL, Curtis Peagler OL, Austin Simmons QB, DaMarion Fowlkes WR
Darris Smith EDGE, Marquis Gracial DL, Nicholas Rodriguez LB, Santana Banner S, Chris Graves Jr. CB, Jahlil Florence CB, Robert Woodyard Jr. LB
Blake Craig K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 3-2-1 | 4-1 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 4-2-1 | 4-2 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 4-3-1 | 4-3 |
| Week 11 | 6-3 | 4-4-1 | 5-3 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 5-4-1 | 6-3 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 5-5-1 | 6-4 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 6-5-1 | 6-5 |
| Postseason | 8-5 | 6-6-1 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +12.8 in the preseason and finished +14.0 after week 8, a move of +1.2 points. High +17.1 (week 7), low +10.5 (week 5).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.1 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Troy | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Mississippi State | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Florida | 8 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Texas A&M | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Ole Miss | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Arkansas | 10 | 9-1 | 6-4 |
| Texas | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Georgia | 8 | 0-8 | 6-2 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Week 03,526 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Kansas | 157 mi | 314 mi |
| Week 3 | Troy | Home | 314 mi |
| Week 4 | Mississippi State | 426 mi | 1,167 mi |
| Week 5 | Florida | Home | 1,167 mi |
| Week 6 | Texas A&M | Home | 1,167 mi |
| Week 7 | Ole Miss | 352 mi | 1,870 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Arkansas | 222 mi | 2,314 mi |
| Week 10 | Texas | Home | 2,314 mi |
| Week 11 | Georgia | 606 mi | 3,526 mi |
| Week 12 | Kentucky | Home | 3,526 mi |
| Week 13 | Oklahoma | Home | 3,526 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Missouri's running game has been anchored by Jamal Roberts, who has stepped up in the absence of All-America running back Ahmad Hardy. Hardy has yet to play this season while recovering from a gunshot wound sustained as a bystander earlier this year. Roberts has delivered several big performances, including 125 yards and a 64-yard touchdown at Kansas, 128 yards and a score against Troy, 211 yards and three touchdowns versus Florida, and a career-best 222 yards and two scores on 34 carries against Texas A&M. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has praised Roberts' physical running style, and the offensive line has improved its run blocking as the season has progressed. When Hardy returns, Missouri could have a formidable one-two punch in the backfield.
Quarterback Austin Simmons, a transfer from Ole Miss, has shown the ability to stretch the field vertically, a dimension Missouri lacked last season. He threw four touchdown passes in his debut against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and has had strong games against Kansas and Florida. However, Simmons has also been careless with the football at times, including a fumble in the opener and an interception against Texas A&M that ended a streak of 139 pass attempts without a pick. His decision-making under pressure will be critical as the Tigers face tougher SEC defenses. Simmons' rapport with receivers Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode has been a bright spot, but he needs to avoid forcing throws into coverage.
Missouri's defense, which returned zero starters from last year's unit, has gradually improved after some shaky early performances. The Tigers struggled to get off the field on early downs against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Troy, but they have since tightened up. Against Florida, Missouri held a high-powered Gators offense to just 17 points and 325 total yards, well below their season average. The following week, the defense limited Texas A&M to six points and forced two interceptions. Transfers like Robert Woodyard Jr. and Chris Graves Jr. have settled in, and the front seven has become more disruptive. However, the pass rush remains a concern, especially with edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen dealing with injuries.
Placekicker Blake Craig has been reliable on field goals, including two 50-plus yarders against Texas A&M, but the kicking game has had issues with blocked attempts and protection. In the Border War at Kansas, two field goals were blocked, one returned 88 yards for a touchdown. Punter Brunno Reus has been a weapon, averaging 46.8 yards per punt against Troy and pinning five inside the 20. Return man DaMarion Fowlkes took a punt back 68 yards for a touchdown against Troy, marking Missouri's first punt return score since 2022. The coverage units have been mostly solid, but the blocked kicks remain a troubling trend that could cost the Tigers in close games.
At 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play, Missouri is very much in the mix for a New Year's Six bowl or better. The lone loss came at Mississippi State in a game where the Tigers led in the fourth quarter before surrendering a late touchdown. Since then, Missouri has reeled off impressive wins over Florida and Texas A&M, both of which were ranked at the time. The remaining schedule is challenging, with road trips to Ole Miss and other SEC foes, but the Tigers have shown they can compete with anyone. If Simmons cuts down on turnovers and the defense continues to improve, Missouri could be a dark horse in the SEC race.
Missouri Tigers is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
Missouri Tigers holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +14.0, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Missouri Tigers's home field advantage rating is 2.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Missouri Tigers's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -130 over and +100 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Missouri Tigers travels 3,526 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 129th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Missouri Tigers: 5-2 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating +14.0 (2026 records).