Florida Gators is 5-2 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +13.2. Florida Gators holds a power rating of +13.2, ranking them among the stronger teams in the FBS and suggesting consistent line value as a favourite. The Florida Gators head to Georgia next in Week 9.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Florida Gators Power Rating of +13.2 is 13.2 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Florida Gators have logged 4,110 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,164 miles, ranking 85th heaviest in the FBS.
Jadan Baugh RB, Vernell Brown III WR, Dallas Wilson WR, Aaron Philo QB, Tramell Jones Jr. QB, Eric Singleton Jr. WR, Micah Mays Jr. WR, Evan Pryor RB, TJ Shanahan Jr. OL, Harrison Moore OL, Emeka Ugorji OL, Knijeah Harris OL
Myles Graham LB, Jaden Robinson LB, Aaron Chiles LB, Jayden Woods EDGE, Brendan Bett DL, Kamran James DL, LJ McCray DL, Joseph Mbatchou DL, Jeramiah McCloud DL, Emmanuel Oyebadejo DL, Ben Hanks III CB, Dijon Johnson CB, Cormani McClain CB, Bryce Thornton S, DJ Coleman S
Patrick Durkin K, Alec Clark P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Week 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Week 10 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-6 |
| Week 11 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +11.5 in the preseason and finished +13.2 after week 8, a move of +1.7 points. High +18.4 (week 5), low +11.1 (week 7).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +6.4 is regressed to +3.6 before it is applied, a difference of 2.8 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Auburn | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Ole Miss | 3 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Missouri | 8 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Texas | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Georgia | 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kentucky | 10 | 5-5 | 2-7-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 8 | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Florida State | 9 | 5-4 | 5-4 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Campbell.
Week 06,164 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Florida Atlantic | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Campbell | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Auburn | 276 mi | 551 mi |
| Week 4 | Ole Miss | Home | 551 mi |
| Week 5 | Missouri | 857 mi | 2,265 mi |
| Week 6 | South Carolina | Home | 2,265 mi |
| Week 7 | Texas | 923 mi | 4,110 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Georgia | 308 mi | 4,726 mi |
| Week 10 | Oklahoma | Home | 4,726 mi |
| Week 11 | Kentucky | 590 mi | 5,906 mi |
| Week 12 | Vanderbilt | Home | 5,906 mi |
| Week 13 | Florida State | 129 mi | 6,164 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Florida opened the Jon Sumrall era with a 4-0 start, the program's best since 2019. The Gators scored 214 points in their first four games, the most by an SEC team in a coach's first four games. Jadan Baugh powered the offense with 11 rushing touchdowns in that span, while Aaron Philo threw for over 1,000 yards and 10 scores. The defense, led by Myles Graham and Jayden Woods, held opponents to 22.8 points per game during the streak. The highlight was a 52-28 demolition of No. 4 Ole Miss in the Swamp, where Baugh ran for 142 yards and three scores and Duke Clark added 126 yards and a touchdown.
Florida's offense is built around a dominant running game. Baugh has been the workhorse, but the Gators also have depth with Duke Clark and Evan Pryor. The offensive line, rebuilt with transfers TJ Shanahan Jr., Harrison Moore, and Emeka Ugorji, has gelled faster than expected. In the first four games, Florida averaged 245 rushing yards per game and scored 18 touchdowns on the ground. However, the passing game has been inconsistent when teams stack the box, as seen in the loss to Missouri when Baugh was held to 13 yards on 12 carries.
While the front seven has been stout against the run, the secondary has been a liability all season. Opposing quarterbacks have consistently moved the ball through the air, with FAU's Caden Veltkamp throwing for 276 yards in Week 1 and Missouri's Austin Simmons torching the Gators for 340 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5. South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers then threw for 279 yards and four scores in Week 6. The cornerback trio of Dijon Johnson, Cormani McClain, and Ben Hanks III has struggled in coverage, and the defense has allowed a 65% completion rate and 12 passing touchdowns through six games.
Florida has been without key playmakers in recent weeks. Leading receiver Vernell Brown III missed the Missouri and South Carolina games with a knee injury, removing a dynamic threat in the passing game and on special teams. Brown had 17 catches for 271 yards and two punt return touchdowns before the injury. Backup running back Duke Clark also left the South Carolina game with an injury. The absence of Brown has allowed defenses to focus more on Dallas Wilson and the running game, contributing to the offensive slowdown.
Florida's 4-2 record is respectable, but the schedule only gets tougher. The Gators travel to face top-ranked Texas next, then still have games against Georgia, LSU, and Florida State. The offense must find ways to move the ball when Baugh is contained, and the defense must shore up its pass coverage. If the secondary can improve and Brown returns healthy, Florida has the talent to compete with anyone. However, the margin for error is slim in the SEC, and the Gators cannot afford many more performances like the ones against Missouri and South Carolina.
Florida Gators is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
Florida Gators holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +13.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Florida Gators's home field advantage rating is 3.6 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Florida Gators's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +130 over and -160 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Florida Gators travels 6,164 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 85th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Florida Gators: 5-2 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating +13.2 (2026 records).
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