Troy17 @FINAL 27Missouri , Week 3, Sep 19, 2026

Troy's new-look defense, which lost nearly its entire 2025 starting lineup, allowed Sam Houston to throw for 335 yards and three touchdowns in the opener and then gave up a pair of third-quarter scoring drives to FCS Alabama State that both began on Troy's side of the 50. The Trojans have faced two offenses that rank near the bottom of the FBS and FCS respectively, and now draw a Missouri offense that is far more talented and balanced. The market's near-total confidence in Missouri reflects that gap, but the bigger concern is whether Troy's transfers and promoted seniors can communicate and tackle in space against a Power Four passing attack. This favors Missouri.

Against Alabama State, Troy scored on five of six first-half possessions and led 31-7 at the break, then managed just three points after halftime. In the opener, Troy needed a fourth-quarter touchdown and an onside-kick recovery to hold off Sam Houston. Will Crowder has shown big-play ability (a 73-yard touchdown pass to TK Keyes, three touchdown passes in Week 1) but has completed only about half his passes in each game, and the running game has been inconsistent outside of Jaheim Merriweather's 127-yard outburst against an FCS defense. Missouri's defense is a massive step up in class, and if Troy cannot sustain drives into the second half, the game could get away from them. This favors Missouri.

Punter Evan Crenshaw was the Sun Belt Special Teams Player of the Year after dropping 29 punts inside the 20, and he could be busy against Missouri. If Crenshaw can flip the field and Troy's defense can force a couple of stops, the Trojans might keep the score respectable. However, the kicking game is unsettled with four candidates who have never attempted a Division I field goal, and Ethan Head has handled those duties so far. In a game where Troy is a heavy underdog, hidden yards from punting and avoiding special-teams mistakes are critical. This slightly favors Troy relative to a blowout, but not enough to change the likely outcome.

The prediction market gives Missouri a near-certain win probability and the line is set at a massive margin, reflecting Missouri's power rating and home-field advantage. But Troy has not been blown out in either game this season despite failing to cover both spreads, and the Trojans have a veteran quarterback in Crowder who has produced explosive plays. Missouri is 1-1 against the spread and may not have the same urgency against a Sun Belt opponent. While Missouri should win comfortably, the margin may not reach the market's expectation, especially if Troy's defense can generate a few stops and the offense avoids turnovers. This slightly favors Troy against the spread.

Troy has played both games at home with zero travel, but now makes its first road trip of the season to an SEC venue with a strong home-field advantage. The Trojans have a full week of rest, but Missouri does as well, and the Tigers are coming off a 2-0 start. Travel and crowd noise can disrupt a rebuilt offensive line and a quarterback with an injury history. This favors Missouri.

Missouri's special teams were a disaster in the Border War: two blocked field goals, one returned 88 yards for Kansas's first touchdown, and Drinkwitz called the unit 'not good tonight in any form or facet.' The return of Blake Craig was supposed to fix last year's kicking woes, but the protection and coverage units remain broken. Troy is 2-0 and, while its power rating is low, it has the athletes to exploit a leaky kicking game. If Missouri gives Troy short fields or a special teams score, the margin could shrink well below what the market projects.

The Tigers' new defense forced two second-half turnovers against Kansas, turning a tie game into a 38-21 win, but it also allowed 21 points and gave up chunks on the ground to Isaiah Marshall (20 carries, 23 yards) and through the air (168 yards, two touchdowns). Against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the defense pitched a first-half shutout but allowed two second-half touchdowns to backups. Troy's offense is far less talented than Kansas's, so this is a chance for the front seven to build confidence. However, the unit has yet to prove it can consistently get off the field on early downs, and if Troy sustains drives, the game could be closer than the spread suggests.

Simmons threw four touchdowns in the opener and followed with two more against Kansas, showing the downfield arm Missouri lacked last year. But he also fumbled in the opener, and the offense committed four false starts and other undisciplined penalties in the first half at Kansas. Against a Troy team that is 0-2 against the spread, the Tigers should move the ball at will, but if Simmons forces throws or the line commits penalties, drives will stall. The market is pricing a blowout, but Missouri's self-inflicted mistakes have been a recurring theme and could keep the score from reaching the projected margin.

Missouri failed to cover a massive spread against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and needed a second-half surge to cover a modest line at Kansas. The market now has Missouri as a heavy home favorite, but the Tigers have shown a tendency to play down to competition and commit penalties that keep games from getting out of hand. Troy is 2-0 and, while overmatched, has nothing to lose. The market's confidence in a blowout is not fully supported by Missouri's first two performances, which were marked by slow starts and self-inflicted errors.

Missouri returns to Columbia after a short trip to Lawrence, with no travel and a full week of rest. The venue's home-field advantage is modest, but it is a significant step up from what Troy has faced in its 2-0 start. Troy's power rating is among the lowest in the country, and the Tigers' talent advantage is substantial. This is the easiest remaining game on Missouri's schedule, and it should allow the coaching staff to clean up the special teams and penalty issues that plagued the first two weeks. A focused, clean performance could produce the blowout the market expects.