Ole Miss Rebels is 5-1 on the season, 3-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +19.1. Ole Miss Rebels holds a power rating of +19.1, ranking them among the stronger teams in the FBS and suggesting consistent line value as a favourite. The Ole Miss Rebels head to Texas next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Ole Miss Rebels Power Rating of +19.1 is 19.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Ole Miss Rebels have logged 1,858 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,876 miles, ranking 120th heaviest in the FBS.
Trinidad Chambliss QB, Kewan Lacy RB
Will Echoles DT, Kam Franklin DE, Suntarine Perkins LB, Antonio Kite CB, Jaylon Braxton CB, Edwin Joseph S, Jalyn Crawford CB
Lucas Carneiro K, Oscar Bird P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 6-0 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 8-1 | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Week 11 | 9-1 | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Week 12 | 10-1 | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 11-1 | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 13-2 | 9-6 | 8-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +20.2 in the preseason and finished +19.1 after week 8, a move of -1.1 points. High +20.8 (week 1), low +13.4 (week 6).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.1 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| LSU | 10 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Florida | 3 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Vanderbilt | 8 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Missouri | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Auburn | 8 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Georgia | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Wofford | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Mississippi State | 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Charlotte, Texas.
Week 03,876 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Louisville | 200 mi | 399 mi |
| Week 2 | Charlotte | Home | 399 mi |
| Week 3 | LSU | Home | 399 mi |
| Week 4 | Florida | 532 mi | 1,463 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Vanderbilt | 197 mi | 1,858 mi |
| Week 7 | Missouri | Home | 1,858 mi |
| Week 8 | Texas | 556 mi | 2,969 mi |
| Week 9 | Auburn | Home | 2,969 mi |
| Week 10 | Georgia | Home | 2,969 mi |
| Week 11 | Oklahoma | 453 mi | 3,876 mi |
| Week 12 | Wofford | Home | 3,876 mi |
| Week 13 | Mississippi State | Home | 3,876 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Trinidad Chambliss has been the engine of the Ole Miss offense, throwing for 351 yards and three touchdowns in the opener against Louisville and adding 363 yards and two scores through the air plus a key rushing touchdown in the win over LSU. However, he has also been prone to turnovers, with a fumble and an interception in the first half against Louisville, and he faced heavy pressure against Florida, throwing an interception late. The rebuilt receiving corps, which lost over 3,000 yards of production and both starting tackles, has relied on big plays from Deuce Alexander and others, but consistency has been an issue. Chambliss's health is also a factor: he injured his left thigh against Florida and was seen using an exercise bike between drives. For Ole Miss to reach its ceiling, Chambliss must protect the ball and the new receivers must step up against quality defenses.
Ole Miss's defensive front, led by Will Echoles, Kam Franklin, and Suntarine Perkins, has been stout against the run for much of the season. The Rebels held Louisville's Isaac Brown, the nation's leading rusher by yards per carry in 2025, to just 36 yards on 16 carries in Week 1, and they limited Missouri to 39 yards on 26 rushes in Week 7. However, they were gashed by Florida for 302 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground, as Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark combined for 268 yards and four scores. The Gators exploited Ole Miss's tackling and gap control, raising questions about the defense's consistency. With mobile quarterbacks and talented backs remaining on the schedule, the Rebels must shore up their run fits to avoid similar breakdowns.
Kewan Lacy, a Doak Walker Award finalist who ran for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries. He was limited to 61 yards on 17 carries against Louisville before leaving with a thigh injury, then bounced back with 87 yards on 13 carries against Charlotte before resting most of the second half. He left the LSU game with a shoulder injury and missed the Florida loss entirely. In his return against Vanderbilt, he carried just seven times for 39 yards as a precaution, but he showed his value with 122 yards on 16 carries in the win over Missouri. When Lacy is healthy, he provides a between-the-tackles threat that balances the offense and keeps Chambliss protected. If he is limited or sidelined, the offense becomes more one-dimensional and vulnerable to opposing pass rushes.
Kicker Lucas Carneiro has been clutch, hitting a 48-yard game-winner as time expired against Louisville and adding field goals of 57 and 42 yards against Charlotte. Punter Oscar Bird has been solid, and the coverage units have generally been sound. Ole Miss has also enjoyed a strong home-field advantage, going 25-1 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since 2023. The Rebels are 3-0 at home this season, with wins over Charlotte, LSU, and Missouri. As the schedule turns to tougher road tests, maintaining special teams excellence and protecting home turf will be crucial for Ole Miss to stay in the SEC race.
Ole Miss has navigated the first half of the season to a 5-1 record, but the toughest challenges lie ahead. The Rebels still have games against No. 1 Georgia and No. 7 Texas, with four of their final five contests at home. However, they must travel to Texas next, a place where they have struggled historically. The Rebels' only loss came on the road at Florida, where they were overwhelmed 52-28. With a target on their backs as a top-10 team, Ole Miss must prove it can win in hostile environments and against elite competition. The margin for error is slim in the SEC, and the Rebels' ability to handle adversity on the road will determine whether they contend for a playoff spot.
Ole Miss Rebels is 3-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.
Ole Miss Rebels holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +19.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Ole Miss Rebels's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Ole Miss Rebels's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Ole Miss Rebels travels 3,876 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 120th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Ole Miss Rebels: 5-1 overall, 3-3 ATS, power rating +19.1 (2026 records).
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