Troy Trojans is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -7.9. Troy Trojans enters the season with a power rating of -7.9, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Troy Trojans host Alabama State next in Week 2. In 2025, Troy Trojans went 8-6 overall, 10-4 against the spread, and 5-9 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Troy Trojans Power Rating of -7.9 is 7.9 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Troy Trojans have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,437 miles, ranking 63rd heaviest in the FBS.
Will Crowder QB, Tucker Kilcrease QB, Gavin Griffin RB, Noreel White WR, Mojo Dortch WR, Elijah Prather OL
Donnie Smith EDGE, Justin Powe S, Kam Curry DL, Luke Hodge LB, TJ Thompson LB, Jordan Perry S, Jabari Strait CB, Kavion Henderson EDGE, Marcus Goree Jr. S, Ty Clemons DL, Bryce Steele LB
Evan Crenshaw P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 6-1 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 6-4 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 8-3 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 9-3 | 5-7 |
| Week 15 | 8-5 | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Postseason | 8-6 | 10-4 | 5-9 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -6.7 in the preseason and finished -2.0 after the postseason, a move of +4.7 points. High -2.0 (the postseason), low -8.2 (week 1).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +0.6 is regressed to +1.8 before it is applied, a difference of 1.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Missouri | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Southern Miss | 7 | 6-1 | 6-1 |
| Louisiana | 7 | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| UL Monroe | 6 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| James Madison | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| South Alabama | 10 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Georgia Southern | 7 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Arkansas State | 8 | 4-4 | 5-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Sam Houston, Utah State, Louisiana Tech.
Week 07,437 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Sam Houston | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Alabama State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Missouri | 609 mi | 1,219 mi |
| Week 4 | Utah State | 1,582 mi | 4,383 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Southern Miss | Home | 4,383 mi |
| Week 7 | Louisiana | 377 mi | 5,137 mi |
| Week 8 | UL Monroe | Home | 5,137 mi |
| Week 9 | James Madison | 608 mi | 6,353 mi |
| Week 10 | Louisiana Tech | Home | 6,353 mi |
| Week 11 | South Alabama | 153 mi | 6,659 mi |
| Week 12 | Georgia Southern | Home | 6,659 mi |
| Week 13 | Arkansas State | 389 mi | 7,437 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Troy enters 2026 with two senior quarterbacks, Will Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease, both back from last year. Crowder has missed 14 games over the past two seasons due to injuries, while Kilcrease started most of 2025 and went 5-2 as a starter. The Trojans finished last in the Sun Belt in total offense and yards per play in 2025, so the quarterback who emerges must elevate a unit that has underperformed. New offensive coordinator Adam Austin arrives from Tarleton State, which led the FCS in scoring, and his system could give whichever quarterback plays a boost. But if Crowder cannot stay healthy, Kilcrease has already shown he can win games, making the quarterback room a strength in depth but a question mark in durability.
Punter Evan Crenshaw was the Sun Belt Special Teams Player of the Year as a junior after leading the nation with 29 punts downed inside the 20-yard line. He gives Troy a major field-position weapon. However, the kicking game is unsettled: four candidates are competing for the placekicking job, and none has attempted a field goal at the Division I level. The return spots are also wide open. While Crenshaw can flip the field, the Trojans will need someone to step up on field goals and extra points, especially in close conference games.
Troy won the Sun Belt West in 2025 and has a realistic shot at reaching the conference championship game for the fourth time in five years. The schedule opens with a home game against Sam Houston, a team Troy is heavily favored to beat, which could build early momentum. The Trojans' defense, even with losses, is expected to remain solid under Dontae Wright, and if the revamped offense can become merely average, the team should contend. The biggest risks are injuries, especially at quarterback, and the inexperience at kicker. But with a manageable early slate and a defense that should keep games close, Troy has the pieces to make another run at the Sun Belt crown.
Troy Trojans is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Troy Trojans holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -7.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Troy Trojans's home field advantage rating is 1.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Troy Trojans's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Troy Trojans travels 7,437 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 63rd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Troy Trojans: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -7.9 (2026 records).
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