Troy Trojans is 3-3 on the season, 2-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -10.5. Troy Trojans is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The Troy Trojans host UL Monroe next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Troy Trojans Power Rating of -10.5 is 10.5 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Troy Trojans have logged 5,137 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,437 miles, ranking 63rd heaviest in the FBS.
Will Crowder QB, Tucker Kilcrease QB, Gavin Griffin RB, Noreel White WR, Mojo Dortch WR, Elijah Prather OL
Donnie Smith EDGE, Justin Powe S, Kam Curry DL, Luke Hodge LB, TJ Thompson LB, Jordan Perry S, Jabari Strait CB, Kavion Henderson EDGE, Marcus Goree Jr. S, Ty Clemons DL, Bryce Steele LB
Evan Crenshaw P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 6-1 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 6-4 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 8-3 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 9-3 | 5-7 |
| Week 15 | 8-5 | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Postseason | 8-6 | 10-4 | 5-9 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -7.1 in the preseason and finished -10.5 after week 8, a move of -3.4 points. High -7.1 (the preseason), low -10.5 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +0.6 is regressed to +1.8 before it is applied, a difference of 1.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Missouri | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Southern Miss | 7 | 6-1 | 6-1 |
| Louisiana | 7 | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| UL Monroe | 6 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| James Madison | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| South Alabama | 10 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Georgia Southern | 7 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Arkansas State | 8 | 4-4 | 5-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Sam Houston, Utah State, Louisiana Tech.
Week 07,437 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Sam Houston | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Alabama State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Missouri | 609 mi | 1,219 mi |
| Week 4 | Utah State | 1,582 mi | 4,383 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Southern Miss | Home | 4,383 mi |
| Week 7 | Louisiana | 377 mi | 5,137 mi |
| Week 8 | UL Monroe | Home | 5,137 mi |
| Week 9 | James Madison | 608 mi | 6,353 mi |
| Week 10 | Louisiana Tech | Home | 6,353 mi |
| Week 11 | South Alabama | 153 mi | 6,659 mi |
| Week 12 | Georgia Southern | Home | 6,659 mi |
| Week 13 | Arkansas State | 389 mi | 7,437 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
After a rocky non-conference slate, Troy's offense exploded in a 55-34 win over Southern Miss to open Sun Belt play. The Trojans racked up 437 rushing yards, with quarterback Goose Crowder throwing for 225 yards and two touchdowns while adding 145 yards and two scores on the ground. Running back Jordan Lovett contributed 142 yards on just 12 carries. That performance snapped a two-game losing streak and showed what the offense can be when Crowder is healthy and the run game is clicking. However, consistency remains an issue: in the two games prior, Troy managed only 17 points at Missouri and 10 at Utah State. The challenge now is proving that the Southern Miss outburst was a turning point rather than an outlier.
Troy's rebuilt secondary has struggled all season, allowing 335 passing yards and three touchdowns to Sam Houston's Landyn Locke in the opener, 242 yards and two scores to Utah State's Grady Brosterhous, and even 316 yards and two touchdowns to Southern Miss's Landry Lyddy in a blowout win. The unit, led by safety Justin Powe and cornerback Jabari Strait, has not held a competent passing offense under 240 yards all year. With Sun Belt play now in full swing, opposing offenses will continue to test this group. Improving communication and tackling in space is critical if Troy hopes to contend for a division title.
Troy is 0-2 in true road games this season, falling 27-17 at Missouri and 21-10 at Utah State. In both losses, the offense stalled after halftime and the defense couldn't get off the field. The Trojans have not won a true road game since the 2025 season, and their next opportunity comes at Louisiana on October 17. With a manageable 377-mile trip and a 10-day rest window, Troy has a chance to reverse the trend, but the Ragin' Cajuns present a tough test with a strong home-field advantage. Breaking the road drought would be a significant step toward competing for the Sun Belt West crown.
Punter Evan Crenshaw, the reigning Sun Belt Special Teams Player of the Year, remains a weapon, consistently flipping field position. Last season he dropped 29 punts inside the 20, and his ability to pin opponents deep is especially valuable in close games. The kicking game, however, is less settled: Ethan Head has handled field goals but missed a 54-yard attempt at Missouri that would have made it a one-score game. In a season where margins are thin, Crenshaw's leg and Head's development could be the difference in tight Sun Belt matchups.
Goose Crowder's injury history is well documented, and his availability is paramount to Troy's success. When healthy, he has shown big-play ability, as evidenced by his 225-yard, two-touchdown passing performance against Southern Miss. But he has also been inconsistent, completing around half his passes in several games and throwing three interceptions at Utah State. Backup Tucker Kilcrease provides a capable alternative, but the offense is at its best with Crowder under center. If Crowder can stay on the field and build on his Sun Belt opener, Troy has the pieces to make a run. If not, the Trojans will need to rely on their running game and defense to carry the load.
Troy Trojans is 2-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.
Troy Trojans holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -10.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Troy Trojans's home field advantage rating is 1.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Troy Trojans's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Troy Trojans travels 7,437 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 63rd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Troy Trojans: 3-3 overall, 2-4 ATS, power rating -10.5 (2026 records).
.png)
