Mississippi State Bulldogs

By · Last updated

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-3 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +8.6. Mississippi State Bulldogs is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Texas next in Week 9.

Conference: Southeastern Conference
Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Power Rating (most current): +8.6
HFA Rating:1.3 pts
2026 Win Total:4.5
2026 Record: 4-3
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 3-4

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Mississippi State Bulldogs Power Rating of +8.6 is 8.6 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Mississippi State Bulldogs have logged 3,061 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,350 miles, ranking 112th heaviest in the FBS.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJeff Lebby
Tenure2 seasons
Record7-18
Offensive coordinatorPhilip Montgomery
Defensive coordinatorsZach Arnett, Matt Brock

Offense

Kamario Taylor QB, Fluff Bothwell RB, Anthony Evans III WR, Marquis Johnson WR, Kolin Wilson WR

Defense

Isaac Smith S, Kelley Jones CB

Special teams

Kyle Ferrie K, Ethan Pulliam P

2025 Season in Review

Record5-8 ATS8-5 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-02-00-2
Week 33-03-01-2
Week 44-04-01-3
Week 54-15-02-3
Week 64-25-12-4
Week 84-36-12-5
Week 94-47-13-5
Week 105-48-14-5
Week 115-58-25-5
Week 125-68-36-5
Week 145-78-46-6
Postseason5-88-57-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +3.5 in the preseason and finished +8.6 after week 8, a move of +5.1 points. High +14.3 (week 5), low +3.5 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +3.5 to +8.6.

PreW8

Mississippi State Bulldogs SP+ Profile

Offence+30.141 of 138higher is better
Defence+26.775 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.521 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.6 pts
HFA measured-0.8 pts
HFA applied+1.3 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of -0.8 is regressed to +1.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
South Carolina21-11-1
Missouri31-21-2
Alabama80-81-7
LSU82-63-5
Texas20-22-0
Vanderbilt22-01-1
Auburn83-52-6
Ole Miss104-67-3

No meeting on record since 2016: UL Monroe, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee Tech.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home39-2936-31-1 ATS · 68 games
On the road17-3224-25 ATS · 49 games
Neutral site5-43-6 ATS · 9 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

4,350 miles - ranked 112th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 4,350 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 04,350 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1UL MonroeHome0 mi
Week 2Minnesota829 mi1,658 mi
Week 3South Carolina449 mi2,556 mi
Week 4MissouriHome2,556 mi
Week 5AlabamaHome2,556 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7LSU252 mi3,061 mi
Week 8OklahomaHome3,061 mi
Week 9Texas569 mi4,199 mi
Week 10VanderbiltHome4,199 mi
Week 11AuburnHome4,199 mi
Week 12Tennessee TechHome4,199 mi
Week 13Ole Miss76 mi4,350 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Mississippi State Bulldogs Season Outlook

Kamario Taylor is the engine, and his health is the season

Taylor has been the story of the year, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the opener, adding 86 rushing yards at Minnesota, and rallying the Bulldogs from 16-0 down at South Carolina with four touchdown passes. He has shown dual-threat ability that stresses defenses, but his ankle injury against Alabama limited his mobility and led to three first-quarter turnovers in a 56-23 loss. He then sat out the LSU game, a 31-0 shutout. When Taylor is healthy, Mississippi State's offense is among the most explosive in the SEC; when he is not, the Bulldogs struggle to move the ball. His availability for the stretch run is the single biggest factor in whether this season ends in a bowl or fades.

The rebuilt defense has been a pleasant surprise, but has a ceiling

Zach Arnett's return as defensive coordinator has paid early dividends: UL Monroe managed just 278 total yards, Minnesota was held to 13 points and converted only 4 of 13 third downs, and Missouri was limited to 24 points in a Mississippi State win. The aggressive scheme and improved secondary play from Isaac Smith and Kelley Jones have been key. However, Alabama exposed vulnerabilities, rushing for 179 yards to Mississippi State's 18 and scoring 56 points, and LSU's Sam Leavitt threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns with no turnovers. The defense has been good enough to win most weeks, but against elite quarterbacks and balanced offenses, it has struggled. Finding a way to generate pressure without sacrificing coverage will be crucial.

The running game is potent when Fluff Bothwell is available

Bothwell has been a difference-maker, rushing for 113 yards and two scores at Minnesota, 115 yards at South Carolina, and 122 yards with a receiving touchdown against Missouri. His ability to break tackles and catch passes out of the backfield adds a dimension to the offense. But a lower-body injury limited him to one carry against Alabama, and he missed the LSU game entirely. In his absence, Kolin Wilson ran for 75 yards against LSU, but the offense lacked explosiveness. Bothwell's health, like Taylor's, is critical to Mississippi State's chances. If he can return to form, the Bulldogs have a balanced attack that can control games.

The offensive line has exceeded expectations but faces tough tests ahead

A major preseason question mark, the offensive line has held up well for most of the season. Taylor was rarely pressured at Minnesota and had time to throw at South Carolina. However, Alabama's edge speed overwhelmed the unit, sacking Taylor five times and forcing three turnovers. LSU also got to backup Parker Puckett three times. The line's performance has been a key reason for the offense's success, but the Alabama game showed that against elite fronts, it can be exposed. With games against Oklahoma and other SEC opponents remaining, the line must protect whoever is at quarterback and open holes for the running game. If it regresses, the offense will struggle to sustain drives.

The path forward: bowl eligibility is likely, but the ceiling depends on health

At 4-2 with wins over Minnesota, South Carolina, and Missouri, Mississippi State has already matched its win total from last season and shown it can compete with ranked teams. The Bulldogs have been excellent against the spread (4-2) and have a power rating of 12.52. However, the two losses to Alabama and LSU were by a combined 64 points, revealing a gap between Mississippi State and the SEC's elite. The remaining schedule includes Oklahoma, which is 3-3 but favored by 4.5, and other winnable games. If Taylor and Bothwell return healthy, this team can reach eight or nine wins and a solid bowl game. If not, the Bulldogs may limp to the finish. The season has been a step forward for the program, but the final month will determine just how big that step is.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Mississippi State Bulldogs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +8.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's home field advantage rating?

Mississippi State Bulldogs's home field advantage rating is 1.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's 2026 win total?

Mississippi State Bulldogs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -125 over and -105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Mississippi State Bulldogs travel in 2026?

Mississippi State Bulldogs travels 4,350 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 112th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating +8.6 (2026 records).