Mississippi State Bulldogs

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Mississippi State Bulldogs is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +7.3. Mississippi State Bulldogs enters the season with a power rating of +7.3, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Minnesota next in Week 2. In 2025, Mississippi State Bulldogs went 5-8 overall, 8-5 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.

Conference: Southeastern Conference
Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Power Rating (most current): +7.3
HFA Rating:1.3 pts
2026 Win Total:4.5
2026 Record: 1-0
2026 ATS: 1-0
2026 O/U: 1-0

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Mississippi State Bulldogs Power Rating of +7.3 is 7.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Mississippi State Bulldogs have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,350 miles, ranking 112th heaviest in the FBS.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJeff Lebby
Tenure2 seasons
Record7-18
Offensive coordinatorPhilip Montgomery
Defensive coordinatorsZach Arnett, Matt Brock

Offense

Kamario Taylor QB, Fluff Bothwell RB, Anthony Evans III WR, Marquis Johnson WR, Kolin Wilson WR

Defense

Isaac Smith S, Kelley Jones CB

Special teams

Kyle Ferrie K, Ethan Pulliam P

2025 Season in Review

Record5-8 ATS8-5 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-02-00-2
Week 33-03-01-2
Week 44-04-01-3
Week 54-15-02-3
Week 64-25-12-4
Week 84-36-12-5
Week 94-47-13-5
Week 105-48-14-5
Week 115-58-25-5
Week 125-68-36-5
Week 145-78-46-6
Postseason5-88-57-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +3.5 in the preseason and finished +7.3 after week 2, a move of +3.8 points. High +7.3 (week 2), low +3.5 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from +3.5 to +7.3.

PreW2

Mississippi State Bulldogs SP+ Profile

Offence+30.141 of 138higher is better
Defence+26.775 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.521 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.6 pts
HFA measured-0.8 pts
HFA applied+1.3 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of -0.8 is regressed to +1.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
South Carolina21-11-1
Missouri31-21-2
Alabama80-81-7
LSU82-63-5
Texas20-22-0
Vanderbilt22-01-1
Auburn83-52-6
Ole Miss104-67-3

No meeting on record since 2016: UL Monroe, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee Tech.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home39-2936-31-1 ATS · 68 games
On the road17-3224-25 ATS · 49 games
Neutral site5-43-6 ATS · 9 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

4,350 miles - ranked 112th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 4,350 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 04,350 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1UL MonroeHome0 mi
Week 2Minnesota829 mi1,658 mi
Week 3South Carolina449 mi2,556 mi
Week 4MissouriHome2,556 mi
Week 5AlabamaHome2,556 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7LSU252 mi3,061 mi
Week 8OklahomaHome3,061 mi
Week 9Texas569 mi4,199 mi
Week 10VanderbiltHome4,199 mi
Week 11AuburnHome4,199 mi
Week 12Tennessee TechHome4,199 mi
Week 13Ole Miss76 mi4,350 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Mississippi State Bulldogs Season Outlook

Kamario Taylor is the engine of a record-setting offense

The sophomore quarterback opened the season with a historic performance, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns while adding 59 yards and a score on the ground in a 62-13 rout of UL Monroe. Mississippi State's 762 total yards set a program record, and Taylor completed 21 passes in the first half alone. His Heisman pose after a 26-yard touchdown run showed his confidence, and coach Jeff Lebby praised his work from the pocket. With playmakers like Anthony Evans III (seven catches, 118 yards) and transfer Marquis Johnson (three catches, 99 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown), Taylor has the weapons to keep the offense explosive. The key will be whether the offensive line, which was inconsistent last season, can hold up against SEC competition.

Special teams provide a reliable foundation

Senior kicker Kyle Ferrie is one of the most consistent placekickers in program history, having set the school's all-time career scoring record for a kicker last season. Junior punter Ethan Pulliam, a former two-sport athlete, returns to handle punting duties. The return game has multiple speedy options, including Anthony Evans III, Marquis Johnson, and redshirt freshman Kolin Wilson. In a season where close SEC games could be decided by field position and kicking, Ferrie's reliability and the return threats give Mississippi State an edge in the third phase of the game.

The schedule ramps up quickly after a soft opener

Mississippi State's 62-13 win over UL Monroe was a dominant start, but the Bulldogs face a much stiffer test in Week 2 at Minnesota, who beat Eastern Illinois 59-7 in their opener. The Gophers are a near-even matchup according to the betting market, with a line of Minnesota -1.0. After that, SEC play will bring the real challenges. The Bulldogs won five games last season after winning just two in 2024, and this roster is considered the most talented of the Lebby era. If the offensive line can be adequate and the defense can climb to the middle of the SEC pack, Mississippi State has a chance to improve on last year's record and make some noise in the conference.

The Bulldogs' identity is taking shape, but questions remain

Through one game, Mississippi State looks like a team that can score with anyone, thanks to Taylor's dual-threat ability and a deep receiver corps. The defense, however, is still a work in progress, and the offensive line's performance against UL Monroe was not a true test. The Bulldogs' ability to win in the SEC will depend on whether the line can protect Taylor and open holes for running back Fluff Bothwell, who is looking for a fully healthy season after injury derailed his 2025 start. If the defense can generate a consistent pass rush and the secondary holds up, Mississippi State could exceed expectations. If not, the offense may have to win shootouts, which is a risky proposition in the SEC.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Mississippi State Bulldogs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +7.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's home field advantage rating?

Mississippi State Bulldogs's home field advantage rating is 1.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Mississippi State Bulldogs's 2026 win total?

Mississippi State Bulldogs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -125 over and -105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Mississippi State Bulldogs travel in 2026?

Mississippi State Bulldogs travels 4,350 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 112th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +7.3 (2026 records).