26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
Final
6
31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
38
Final
45
14
Final
42
24
Final
20
13
Final
6
20
Final
59
49
Final
51
23
Final
52
24
Final
37
38
Final
17
24
Final
25
28
Final
27
20
Final
35
10
Final
21
24
Final
27
56
Final
21
31
Final
39
24
Final
31
20
Final
31
49
Final
39
10
Final
13
23
Final
15
10
Final
28
17
Final
34
49
Final
27
17
Final
28
20
Final
24
21
Final
14
13
Final
28
31
Final
35
0
Final
26
31
Final
10
49
Final
56
20
Final
16
24
Final
57
32
Final
38
3
Final
39
17
Final
20
7
Final
24
27
Final
34
17
Final
34
31
Final
30
42
Final
19
16
Final
21
13
Final
21
Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-3 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +8.6. Mississippi State Bulldogs is covering the spread at 60% since the start of last season (12-8), well above the FBS average. The Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Texas next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Mississippi State Bulldogs Power Rating of +8.6 is 8.6 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Mississippi State Bulldogs have logged 3,061 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,350 miles, ranking 112th heaviest in the FBS.
Kamario Taylor QB, Fluff Bothwell RB, Anthony Evans III WR, Marquis Johnson WR, Kolin Wilson WR
Isaac Smith S, Kelley Jones CB
Kyle Ferrie K, Ethan Pulliam P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Week 6 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 6-1 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 7-1 | 3-5 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 8-1 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 5-5 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Week 12 | 5-6 | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 5-7 | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 5-8 | 8-5 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +3.5 in the preseason and finished +8.6 after week 8, a move of +5.1 points. High +14.3 (week 5), low +3.5 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -0.8 is regressed to +1.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Missouri | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Alabama | 8 | 0-8 | 1-7 |
| LSU | 8 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Texas | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Vanderbilt | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Auburn | 8 | 3-5 | 2-6 |
| Ole Miss | 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: UL Monroe, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee Tech.
Week 04,350 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | UL Monroe | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Minnesota | 829 mi | 1,658 mi |
| Week 3 | South Carolina | 449 mi | 2,556 mi |
| Week 4 | Missouri | Home | 2,556 mi |
| Week 5 | Alabama | Home | 2,556 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | LSU | 252 mi | 3,061 mi |
| Week 8 | Oklahoma | Home | 3,061 mi |
| Week 9 | Texas | 569 mi | 4,199 mi |
| Week 10 | Vanderbilt | Home | 4,199 mi |
| Week 11 | Auburn | Home | 4,199 mi |
| Week 12 | Tennessee Tech | Home | 4,199 mi |
| Week 13 | Ole Miss | 76 mi | 4,350 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Taylor has been the story of the year, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the opener, adding 86 rushing yards at Minnesota, and rallying the Bulldogs from 16-0 down at South Carolina with four touchdown passes. He has shown dual-threat ability that stresses defenses, but his ankle injury against Alabama limited his mobility and led to three first-quarter turnovers in a 56-23 loss. He then sat out the LSU game, a 31-0 shutout. When Taylor is healthy, Mississippi State's offense is among the most explosive in the SEC; when he is not, the Bulldogs struggle to move the ball. His availability for the stretch run is the single biggest factor in whether this season ends in a bowl or fades.
Zach Arnett's return as defensive coordinator has paid early dividends: UL Monroe managed just 278 total yards, Minnesota was held to 13 points and converted only 4 of 13 third downs, and Missouri was limited to 24 points in a Mississippi State win. The aggressive scheme and improved secondary play from Isaac Smith and Kelley Jones have been key. However, Alabama exposed vulnerabilities, rushing for 179 yards to Mississippi State's 18 and scoring 56 points, and LSU's Sam Leavitt threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns with no turnovers. The defense has been good enough to win most weeks, but against elite quarterbacks and balanced offenses, it has struggled. Finding a way to generate pressure without sacrificing coverage will be crucial.
Bothwell has been a difference-maker, rushing for 113 yards and two scores at Minnesota, 115 yards at South Carolina, and 122 yards with a receiving touchdown against Missouri. His ability to break tackles and catch passes out of the backfield adds a dimension to the offense. But a lower-body injury limited him to one carry against Alabama, and he missed the LSU game entirely. In his absence, Kolin Wilson ran for 75 yards against LSU, but the offense lacked explosiveness. Bothwell's health, like Taylor's, is critical to Mississippi State's chances. If he can return to form, the Bulldogs have a balanced attack that can control games.
A major preseason question mark, the offensive line has held up well for most of the season. Taylor was rarely pressured at Minnesota and had time to throw at South Carolina. However, Alabama's edge speed overwhelmed the unit, sacking Taylor five times and forcing three turnovers. LSU also got to backup Parker Puckett three times. The line's performance has been a key reason for the offense's success, but the Alabama game showed that against elite fronts, it can be exposed. With games against Oklahoma and other SEC opponents remaining, the line must protect whoever is at quarterback and open holes for the running game. If it regresses, the offense will struggle to sustain drives.
At 4-2 with wins over Minnesota, South Carolina, and Missouri, Mississippi State has already matched its win total from last season and shown it can compete with ranked teams. The Bulldogs have been excellent against the spread (4-2) and have a power rating of 12.52. However, the two losses to Alabama and LSU were by a combined 64 points, revealing a gap between Mississippi State and the SEC's elite. The remaining schedule includes Oklahoma, which is 3-3 but favored by 4.5, and other winnable games. If Taylor and Bothwell return healthy, this team can reach eight or nine wins and a solid bowl game. If not, the Bulldogs may limp to the finish. The season has been a step forward for the program, but the final month will determine just how big that step is.
Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
Mississippi State Bulldogs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +8.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Mississippi State Bulldogs's home field advantage rating is 1.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Mississippi State Bulldogs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -125 over and -105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Mississippi State Bulldogs travels 4,350 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 112th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating +8.6 (2026 records).