Michigan State Spartans is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +0.2. Michigan State Spartans enters the season with a power rating of +0.2, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Michigan State Spartans host Eastern Michigan next in Week 2. In 2025, Michigan State Spartans went 4-8 overall, 7-5 against the spread, and 7-5 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Michigan State Spartans Power Rating of +0.2 is 0.2 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Michigan State Spartans have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,722 miles, ranking 91st heaviest in the FBS.
Alessio Milivojevic QB, Ben Murawski OL, Trent Fraley OL, Cam Edwards RB, Carson Gulker TE, Chrishon McCray WR
Jordan Hall LB, Caleb Wheatland LB, Dion Crawford LB, Nikai Martinez S, Charles Brantley CB
Rhys Dakin P, Liam Boyd K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 6-2 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 7-5 | 7-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +3.6 in the preseason and finished +6.0 after the postseason, a move of +2.4 points. High +7.6 (week 15), low +1.3 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -0.7 is regressed to +1.4 before it is applied, a difference of 2.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Nebraska | 4 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Illinois | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Northwestern | 6 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| UCLA | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Michigan | 10 | 3-7 | 5-4-1 |
| Washington | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Oregon | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Rutgers | 9 | 6-3 | 5-4 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Toledo, Eastern Michigan.
Week 05,722 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Toledo | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Eastern Michigan | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Notre Dame | 114 mi | 229 mi |
| Week 4 | Nebraska | Home | 229 mi |
| Week 5 | Wisconsin | 251 mi | 731 mi |
| Week 6 | Illinois | Home | 731 mi |
| Week 7 | Northwestern | Home | 731 mi |
| Week 8 | UCLA | 1,906 mi | 4,543 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Michigan | 49 mi | 4,641 mi |
| Week 11 | Washington | Home | 4,641 mi |
| Week 12 | Oregon | Home | 4,641 mi |
| Week 13 | Rutgers | 541 mi | 5,722 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Michigan State enters 2026 with Pat Fitzgerald at the helm, his first season in East Lansing after a long head coaching career elsewhere. The program is in a rebuilding phase, having changed coaches twice in three years, and Fitzgerald inherits a roster that lost significant talent. The staff he assembled, including coordinators Nick Sheridan on offense and Joe Rossi on defense, has drawn praise from opposing coaches for its quality and energy. The expectation is that success this year will be measured more by development and culture building than by wins, with a realistic ceiling of four or five victories.
Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic returns after throwing for 986 yards in four starts in 2025, but he was sacked 25 times in those games, highlighting a major concern. The offensive line was rebuilt through the transfer portal with tackle Ben Murawski from UConn and center Trent Fraley from North Dakota State, but the unit remains unproven. Running back Cam Edwards, also from UConn, brings 1,240 yards from scrimmage last season, though that production came against a weaker schedule. Offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan is known for getting playmakers in space, and he has intriguing weapons in tight end Carson Gulker, a Division II national champion transfer, and receiver Chrishon McCray. The offense may be average overall, but it has the potential for explosive moments.
The Spartans' defense struggled to generate pressure last season, which contributed to a low turnover total of just nine takeaways, sixth fewest in the FBS. The defensive line remains thin, a recurring issue that could cause problems. However, the secondary has experience with safety Nikai Martinez and cornerback Charles Brantley, who returns after a year at Miami (Fla.). Linebacker Jordan Hall anchors the middle, joined by transfers Caleb Wheatland from Auburn and Dion Crawford from Buffalo. Coordinator Joe Rossi has emphasized energy and development, hoping to get more out of a unit that may lack elite talent but could improve with coaching.
New special teams coordinator LeVar Woods comes from Iowa, where he built a reputation for detailed, disciplined special teams. He brought punter Rhys Dakin with him from Iowa, and the Australian will replace NFL-bound Ryan Eckley. Placekicker Liam Boyd, a transfer from Charlotte, was inconsistent last season, making just 4 of 6 short kicks and 3 of 4 from long range. The return game has several speedy wide receivers competing for reps, and Woods' installation of complex schemes could give Michigan State an edge in the kicking game, which may be crucial in close contests.
Michigan State's 2026 season is about laying a foundation. The roster has been reshaped through transfers, and the coaching staff is new, so early struggles are likely. The schedule opens with a home game against Toledo, where the Spartans are favored by 9.5 points, but the rest of the Big Ten slate will be challenging. The key will be whether the offensive line can protect Milivojevic, whether the defensive front can create pressure, and whether the team can develop chemistry. Even if the win total is modest, the progress made this year could set the stage for a more competitive 2027.
Michigan State Spartans is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Michigan State Spartans holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +0.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Michigan State Spartans's home field advantage rating is 1.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Michigan State Spartans's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Michigan State Spartans travels 5,722 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 91st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Michigan State Spartans: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +0.2 (2026 records).
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