Michigan State Spartans

By · Last updated

Michigan State Spartans is 2-5 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.3. Michigan State Spartans's games are hitting the under at 71% this season (5-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The Michigan State Spartans head to UCLA next in Week 8.

Conference: Big Ten Conference
Stadium: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Power Rating (most current): -0.3
HFA Rating:1.4 pts
2026 Win Total:3.5
2026 Record: 2-5
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 2-5

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Michigan State Spartans Power Rating of -0.3 is 0.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Michigan State Spartans have logged 731 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,722 miles, ranking 91st heaviest in the FBS.

Michigan State Spartans Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachPat Fitzgerald
TenureFirst season
Career record110-101 (17 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorNick Sheridan
Defensive coordinatorsJoe Rossi, Max Bullough

Offense

Alessio Milivojevic QB, Ben Murawski OL, Trent Fraley OL, Cam Edwards RB, Carson Gulker TE, Chrishon McCray WR

Defense

Jordan Hall LB, Caleb Wheatland LB, Dion Crawford LB, Nikai Martinez S, Charles Brantley CB

Special teams

Rhys Dakin P, Liam Boyd K

2025 Season in Review

Record4-8 ATS7-5 O/U7-5
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-10-1
Week 22-00-21-1
Week 33-00-32-1
Week 43-11-33-1
Week 63-22-34-1
Week 73-32-44-2
Week 83-43-45-2
Week 93-54-46-2
Week 103-65-46-3
Week 123-75-56-4
Week 133-86-56-5
Week 144-87-57-5

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -1.1 in the preseason and finished -0.3 after week 8, a move of +0.9 points. High +4.0 (week 4), low -1.1 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -1.1 to -0.3.

PreW8

Michigan State Spartans SP+ Profile

Offence+26.761 of 138higher is better
Defence+25.970 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4105 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±1.4 pts
HFA measured-0.7 pts
HFA applied+1.4 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of -0.7 is regressed to +1.4 before it is applied, a difference of 2.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Notre Dame21-11-1
Nebraska42-22-2
Wisconsin31-21-2
Illinois41-31-3
Northwestern63-33-3
UCLA10-10-1
Michigan103-75-4-1
Washington20-20-2
Oregon20-22-0
Rutgers96-35-4

No meeting on record since 2016: Toledo, Eastern Michigan.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home37-2722-40-2 ATS · 64 games
On the road17-3226-22-1 ATS · 49 games
Neutral site4-25-1 ATS · 6 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

5,722 miles - ranked 91st heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 5,722 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 05,722 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1ToledoHome0 mi
Week 2Eastern MichiganHome0 mi
Week 3Notre Dame114 mi229 mi
Week 4NebraskaHome229 mi
Week 5Wisconsin251 mi731 mi
Week 6IllinoisHome731 mi
Week 7NorthwesternHome731 mi
Week 8UCLA1,906 mi4,543 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Michigan49 mi4,641 mi
Week 11WashingtonHome4,641 mi
Week 12OregonHome4,641 mi
Week 13Rutgers541 mi5,722 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Michigan State Spartans Season Outlook

A rebuild under Fitzgerald shows flashes but little consistency

Pat Fitzgerald's first season in East Lansing has produced a 2-5 record and an 0-4 mark in Big Ten play, with both wins coming at home against Group of Five opponents (Toledo and Eastern Michigan). The Spartans have been competitive in spurts, pushing Illinois to overtime and nearly upsetting Northwestern, but they have been outscored 89-26 in their three Power Four losses before the Illinois game. The preseason expectation of a rebuilding year has played out: the team is still searching for an identity on both sides of the ball.

Offense is a tale of two units: run game carries, passing game sputters

Cam Edwards emerged as a workhorse early, rushing for 152 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan and leading the Big Ten in rushing before a leg injury in Week 4 against Nebraska sidelined him. The run game piled up 258 yards against EMU, the most since 2022, but Edwards' absence has forced the offense to lean on quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who has been efficient at times (216 yards and two touchdowns against Northwestern) but also prone to turnovers and sacks. The offensive line, rebuilt with portal additions Ben Murawski and Trent Fraley, has struggled against Power Four fronts, allowing six sacks to Nebraska and contributing to a three-game stretch where the Spartans scored 10, 13, and 3 points. The return of Edwards would be a significant boost, but his status remains uncertain.

Defense shows life with sacks but remains vulnerable to big plays

After failing to record a sack in three consecutive games, Michigan State's defense erupted for five sacks and 10 tackles for loss against Northwestern, albeit in a losing effort. The unit has been hampered by injuries, missing its top three inside linebackers and top three cornerbacks against the Wildcats. The takeaway drought that plagued the team last season (nine forced turnovers, sixth-lowest in the FBS) has continued, and the thin defensive line has struggled to generate consistent pressure. Opponents have moved the ball at will through the air and on the ground, and the Spartans have yet to force a turnover in critical moments. The return of healthy defensive backs and linebackers will be key to any improvement.

Special teams and situational football cost the Spartans in close games

Michigan State has lost two straight games by a combined four points, and special teams miscues have been a major factor. Against Northwestern, Liam Boyd's 33-yard field goal attempt was blocked with the game tied, setting up the Wildcats' game-winning drive. Against Illinois, a controversial offside penalty on an onside kick recovery negated a potential game-changing play. The Spartans also failed a two-point conversion in overtime that would have beaten the Illini. These fine margins have kept Michigan State from flipping its record, and cleaning up situational execution will be critical for Fitzgerald's staff going forward.

The schedule offers opportunities, but the path to a winning season is steep

With five games remaining, Michigan State needs to win out to finish above .500, a tall order given a road trip to UCLA and remaining Big Ten matchups. The Spartans have shown they can compete with middle-tier conference teams (Illinois, Northwestern), but they have yet to put together a complete game against a Power Four opponent. The return of injured players, particularly Cam Edwards, and improved discipline in close games are the biggest swing factors. A bowl game is unlikely, but the development of young players and the establishment of Fitzgerald's culture will be the true measure of this season's success.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Michigan State Spartans's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Michigan State Spartans is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Michigan State Spartans's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Michigan State Spartans holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Michigan State Spartans's home field advantage rating?

Michigan State Spartans's home field advantage rating is 1.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Michigan State Spartans's 2026 win total?

Michigan State Spartans's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Michigan State Spartans travel in 2026?

Michigan State Spartans travels 5,722 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 91st heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Michigan State Spartans: 2-5 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -0.3 (2026 records).