Michigan State Spartans is 2-5 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.3. Michigan State Spartans's games are hitting the under at 71% this season (5-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The Michigan State Spartans head to UCLA next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Michigan State Spartans Power Rating of -0.3 is 0.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Michigan State Spartans have logged 731 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,722 miles, ranking 91st heaviest in the FBS.
Alessio Milivojevic QB, Ben Murawski OL, Trent Fraley OL, Cam Edwards RB, Carson Gulker TE, Chrishon McCray WR
Jordan Hall LB, Caleb Wheatland LB, Dion Crawford LB, Nikai Martinez S, Charles Brantley CB
Rhys Dakin P, Liam Boyd K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 6-2 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 7-5 | 7-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -1.1 in the preseason and finished -0.3 after week 8, a move of +0.9 points. High +4.0 (week 4), low -1.1 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -0.7 is regressed to +1.4 before it is applied, a difference of 2.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Nebraska | 4 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Illinois | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Northwestern | 6 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| UCLA | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Michigan | 10 | 3-7 | 5-4-1 |
| Washington | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Oregon | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Rutgers | 9 | 6-3 | 5-4 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Toledo, Eastern Michigan.
Week 05,722 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Toledo | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Eastern Michigan | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | Notre Dame | 114 mi | 229 mi |
| Week 4 | Nebraska | Home | 229 mi |
| Week 5 | Wisconsin | 251 mi | 731 mi |
| Week 6 | Illinois | Home | 731 mi |
| Week 7 | Northwestern | Home | 731 mi |
| Week 8 | UCLA | 1,906 mi | 4,543 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Michigan | 49 mi | 4,641 mi |
| Week 11 | Washington | Home | 4,641 mi |
| Week 12 | Oregon | Home | 4,641 mi |
| Week 13 | Rutgers | 541 mi | 5,722 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Pat Fitzgerald's first season in East Lansing has produced a 2-5 record and an 0-4 mark in Big Ten play, with both wins coming at home against Group of Five opponents (Toledo and Eastern Michigan). The Spartans have been competitive in spurts, pushing Illinois to overtime and nearly upsetting Northwestern, but they have been outscored 89-26 in their three Power Four losses before the Illinois game. The preseason expectation of a rebuilding year has played out: the team is still searching for an identity on both sides of the ball.
Cam Edwards emerged as a workhorse early, rushing for 152 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan and leading the Big Ten in rushing before a leg injury in Week 4 against Nebraska sidelined him. The run game piled up 258 yards against EMU, the most since 2022, but Edwards' absence has forced the offense to lean on quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who has been efficient at times (216 yards and two touchdowns against Northwestern) but also prone to turnovers and sacks. The offensive line, rebuilt with portal additions Ben Murawski and Trent Fraley, has struggled against Power Four fronts, allowing six sacks to Nebraska and contributing to a three-game stretch where the Spartans scored 10, 13, and 3 points. The return of Edwards would be a significant boost, but his status remains uncertain.
After failing to record a sack in three consecutive games, Michigan State's defense erupted for five sacks and 10 tackles for loss against Northwestern, albeit in a losing effort. The unit has been hampered by injuries, missing its top three inside linebackers and top three cornerbacks against the Wildcats. The takeaway drought that plagued the team last season (nine forced turnovers, sixth-lowest in the FBS) has continued, and the thin defensive line has struggled to generate consistent pressure. Opponents have moved the ball at will through the air and on the ground, and the Spartans have yet to force a turnover in critical moments. The return of healthy defensive backs and linebackers will be key to any improvement.
Michigan State has lost two straight games by a combined four points, and special teams miscues have been a major factor. Against Northwestern, Liam Boyd's 33-yard field goal attempt was blocked with the game tied, setting up the Wildcats' game-winning drive. Against Illinois, a controversial offside penalty on an onside kick recovery negated a potential game-changing play. The Spartans also failed a two-point conversion in overtime that would have beaten the Illini. These fine margins have kept Michigan State from flipping its record, and cleaning up situational execution will be critical for Fitzgerald's staff going forward.
With five games remaining, Michigan State needs to win out to finish above .500, a tall order given a road trip to UCLA and remaining Big Ten matchups. The Spartans have shown they can compete with middle-tier conference teams (Illinois, Northwestern), but they have yet to put together a complete game against a Power Four opponent. The return of injured players, particularly Cam Edwards, and improved discipline in close games are the biggest swing factors. A bowl game is unlikely, but the development of young players and the establishment of Fitzgerald's culture will be the true measure of this season's success.
Michigan State Spartans is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
Michigan State Spartans holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Michigan State Spartans's home field advantage rating is 1.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Michigan State Spartans's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Michigan State Spartans travels 5,722 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 91st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Michigan State Spartans: 2-5 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -0.3 (2026 records).