Oklahoma State Cowboys

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Oklahoma State Cowboys is 5-2 on the season, 6-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +7.7. Oklahoma State Cowboys is covering the spread at 61% since the start of last season (11-7), well above the FBS average. The Oklahoma State Cowboys head to Iowa State next in Week 9.

Conference: Big 12 Conference
Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Power Rating (most current): +7.7
HFA Rating:3.1 pts
2026 Win Total:5.5
2026 Record: 5-2
2026 ATS: 6-1
2026 O/U: 5-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Oklahoma State Cowboys Power Rating of +7.7 is 7.7 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Oklahoma State Cowboys have logged 2,960 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,009 miles, ranking 88th heaviest in the FBS.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachEric Morris
TenureFirst season
Career record46-34 (7 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorSean Brophy
Defensive coordinatorSkyler Cassity

Offense

Drew Mestemaker QB, Caleb Hawkins RB, Wyatt Young WR, Justin Bowick WR, Chris Barnes WR, Jacob Sexton OL, Tyler Mercer OL, Joseph Hanson OL

Defense

Jaleel Johnson EDGE, James Williams EDGE, Ethan Wesloski LB, Tate Romney LB, Isaiah Chisom LB, Mo Horn CB, Quinton Hammonds S, LaDainian Fields CB, Braeden Presley S

Special teams

Sam Keltner K, Lachie Pozzobon P

2025 Season in Review

Record1-11 ATS5-6 O/U5-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-00-1
Week 21-10-11-1
Week 41-20-21-2
Week 51-31-22-2
Week 61-41-32-3
Week 71-51-43-3
Week 81-61-54-3
Week 91-71-64-4
Week 101-82-65-4
Week 121-93-65-5
Week 131-104-65-6
Week 141-115-65-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -3.0 in the preseason and finished +7.7 after week 8, a move of +10.7 points. High +7.7 (week 8), low -5.8 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -3.0 to +7.7.

PreW8

Oklahoma State Cowboys SP+ Profile

Offence+30.042 of 138higher is better
Defence+23.451 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.519 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±8.6 pts
HFA measured+5.1 pts
HFA applied+3.1 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +5.1 is regressed to +3.1 before it is applied, a difference of 2.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Tulsa65-13-3
Oregon10-10-1
West Virginia97-26-2-1
UCF20-21-1
Houston21-11-1
Colorado21-11-1
Iowa State95-44-4-1
Kansas State105-55-5
Texas Tech95-41-8
Arizona State32-12-1
Kansas97-26-2-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Murray State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home44-2131-31-3 ATS · 65 games
On the road26-2727-25-1 ATS · 53 games
Neutral site6-47-3 ATS · 10 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

6,009 miles - ranked 88th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 6,009 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 06,009 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Tulsa63 mi126 mi
Week 2OregonHome126 mi
Week 3Murray StateHome126 mi
Week 4West Virginia965 mi2,055 mi
Week 5-Bye
Week 6UCFHome2,055 mi
Week 7Houston452 mi2,960 mi
Week 8ColoradoHome2,960 mi
Week 9Iowa State446 mi3,852 mi
Week 10Kansas State214 mi4,279 mi
Week 11Texas TechHome4,279 mi
Week 12Arizona State865 mi6,009 mi
Week 13KansasHome6,009 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Oklahoma State Cowboys Season Outlook

A New Era Led by Mestemaker

Oklahoma State hired Eric Morris as head coach after a 1-11 season, and he brought a large contingent from North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins, and receiver Wyatt Young. Mestemaker led the nation in passing yards last year with 4,379, and Hawkins set an FBS freshman record with 29 touchdowns. The Cowboys have already surpassed their win total from last season, sitting at 4-2 and ranked No. 18, with a signature 39-31 upset of then-No. 6 Oregon. Mestemaker has thrown for over 300 yards in four of six games and is the engine of a high-powered offense.

Offensive Firepower and Balance

The Cowboys have scored at least 39 points in three of their last four games and have topped 600 total yards twice. Mestemaker has spread the ball to multiple playmakers: Justin Bowick had 178 yards against Murray State, Wyatt Young exploded for 192 yards at West Virginia, and Caleb Hawkins rushed for 180 yards in that same game. Hawkins also had a 314-carry fumble-free streak before a miscue against UCF. The offense has been efficient and explosive, but slow starts have been a problem, as seen in the 14-3 halftime deficit at Houston.

Defensive Concerns Persist

Despite the offense's prowess, the defense under first-year coordinator Skyler Cassity has been leaky. Tulsa scored 24 in the opener, Oregon put up 31 despite being outgained by 273 yards, West Virginia rushed for 334 yards, and UCF scored 28 with Keyone Jenkins throwing four touchdowns. The unit has shown a pattern of allowing points without allowing yards, often due to short fields from turnovers. However, the defense has also made timely plays, like Evan Jackson's 28-yard fumble return for a touchdown against UCF, and has been solid on third down at times. Improving consistency will be key.

Turnover Battle a Double-Edged Sword

Mestemaker has thrown interceptions in bunches, including two tipped-ball picks against Oregon that nearly cost the Cowboys the game. One was returned 96 yards for a touchdown, and another set up a Ducks score at the 1-yard line. Against Houston, he threw another interception on the first drive of the third quarter. However, the Cowboys have also forced key turnovers, like the fumble return against UCF. Protecting the ball and capitalizing on opponents' mistakes will be crucial in close games down the stretch.

Path Forward in Big 12 Play

Oklahoma State is 2-1 in Big 12 play and still very much in the conference race, though the loss to Houston was a setback. The Cowboys have a favorable schedule ahead, with a home game against Colorado (2-4) next. They have already proven they can win on the road, beating West Virginia in Morgantown for the sixth straight time. With Mestemaker leading the offense, they have a chance to compete in every game. However, the defense must improve and the slow starts must be addressed if they are to challenge for a Big 12 title. The bar for improvement was low after two winless conference seasons, but this team has already exceeded expectations and has its sights set higher.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Oklahoma State Cowboys's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Oklahoma State Cowboys is 6-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 86% of games.

What is Oklahoma State Cowboys's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Oklahoma State Cowboys holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +7.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Oklahoma State Cowboys's home field advantage rating?

Oklahoma State Cowboys's home field advantage rating is 3.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Oklahoma State Cowboys's 2026 win total?

Oklahoma State Cowboys's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Oklahoma State Cowboys travel in 2026?

Oklahoma State Cowboys travels 6,009 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 88th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Oklahoma State Cowboys: 5-2 overall, 6-1 ATS, power rating +7.7 (2026 records).