Oklahoma State Cowboys is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -1.2. Oklahoma State Cowboys enters the season with a power rating of -1.2, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Oklahoma State Cowboys host Oregon next in Week 2. In 2025, Oklahoma State Cowboys went 1-11 overall, 5-6 against the spread, and 5-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Oklahoma State Cowboys Power Rating of -1.2 is 1.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Oklahoma State Cowboys have logged 126 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,009 miles, ranking 88th heaviest in the FBS.
Drew Mestemaker QB, Caleb Hawkins RB, Wyatt Young WR, Justin Bowick WR, Chris Barnes WR, Jacob Sexton OL, Tyler Mercer OL, Joseph Hanson OL
Jaleel Johnson EDGE, James Williams EDGE, Ethan Wesloski LB, Tate Romney LB, Isaiah Chisom LB, Mo Horn CB, Quinton Hammonds S, LaDainian Fields CB, Braeden Presley S
Sam Keltner K, Lachie Pozzobon P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 1-9 | 3-6 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 1-10 | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 1-11 | 5-6 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -17.2 in the preseason and finished -11.0 after the postseason, a move of +6.2 points. High -11.0 (the postseason), low -17.7 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +5.1 is regressed to +3.1 before it is applied, a difference of 2.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa | 6 | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Oregon | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| West Virginia | 9 | 7-2 | 6-2-1 |
| UCF | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Houston | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Colorado | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Iowa State | 9 | 5-4 | 4-4-1 |
| Kansas State | 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Texas Tech | 9 | 5-4 | 1-8 |
| Arizona State | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Kansas | 9 | 7-2 | 6-2-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Murray State.
Week 06,009 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Tulsa | 63 mi | 126 mi |
| Week 2 | Oregon | Home | 126 mi |
| Week 3 | Murray State | Home | 126 mi |
| Week 4 | West Virginia | 965 mi | 2,055 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | UCF | Home | 2,055 mi |
| Week 7 | Houston | 452 mi | 2,960 mi |
| Week 8 | Colorado | Home | 2,960 mi |
| Week 9 | Iowa State | 446 mi | 3,852 mi |
| Week 10 | Kansas State | 214 mi | 4,279 mi |
| Week 11 | Texas Tech | Home | 4,279 mi |
| Week 12 | Arizona State | 865 mi | 6,009 mi |
| Week 13 | Kansas | Home | 6,009 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Oklahoma State enters 2026 with a completely new coaching staff led by Eric Morris, who arrives from North Texas with a 46-34 career record. Morris brought 18 players with him from North Texas, including key offensive pieces, and installed a pass-heavy system. The Cowboys are coming off two winless Big 12 campaigns, so the immediate goal is simply to show progress. The offense is expected to carry the team early, while the defense, coordinated by 32-year-old Skyler Cassity, remains a work in progress with multiple fronts and frequent five-defensive-back alignments.
The offense is built around quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation with 4,379 passing yards last season at North Texas. He is reunited with running back Caleb Hawkins, who set an FBS freshman record with 29 touchdowns and rushed for 1,434 yards, and receiver Wyatt Young, who caught passes for 1,264 yards. Additional transfers Justin Bowick (Illinois) and Chris Barnes (Wake Forest) add depth at receiver. The offensive line, featuring transfers Jacob Sexton (Oklahoma), Tyler Mercer (Kansas), and Joseph Hanson (Coastal Carolina), must protect Mestemaker and open lanes for Hawkins. If the line gels, this unit could be one of the most explosive in the Big 12.
Morris brought in an entirely new group of specialists. Placekicker Sam Keltner, a transfer from SMU, made 14 of 20 field goals last season and will be asked to improve his accuracy. Australian punter Lachie Pozzobon, who averaged 41.8 yards per punt at FCS Stephen F. Austin, brings hangtime and precision. Chris Barnes, a Wake Forest transfer, is expected to be the primary return man and could provide a spark in the return game. Special teams could be a deciding factor in close conference games, so consistency will be key.
The Cowboys open on the road at Tulsa, where they are favored by 13 points, and the schedule includes a long travel season of over 4,800 miles. The offense, with Mestemaker at the helm, gives Oklahoma State a chance in every game, but the defense and offensive line are the biggest uncertainties. Watch how quickly the new system clicks, whether the offensive line can protect Mestemaker, and if the defense can force stops against Big 12 offenses. With a low bar for improvement after two winless conference seasons, even a modest step forward would be a positive sign for Morris's first year.
Oklahoma State Cowboys is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Oklahoma State Cowboys holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -1.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Oklahoma State Cowboys's home field advantage rating is 3.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Oklahoma State Cowboys's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +150 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Oklahoma State Cowboys travels 6,009 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 88th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -1.2 (2026 records).
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