Boise State Broncos

Boise State opened 2026 with a 34-27 loss at No. 2 Oregon, but the final score tells only part of the story. The Broncos, who entered as 24.5-point underdogs, led 17-14 at halftime and were tied at 27 in the fourth quarter before Oregon's 62-yard touchdown broke the deadlock. Quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 181 yards and three scores, connecting with Cameron Bates, Sire Gaines, and Matt Wagner. The defense forced a muffed punt that led to a touchdown and held Oregon to field goals on several drives. While the loss extends Madsen's career record to 0-5 against Power 4 opponents, the competitiveness of the performance suggests this team is closer to the top tier than the preseason market believed.

The Broncos' offensive identity still flows through their running backs. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines combined for 1,977 rushing yards in 2025, and Gaines showed his receiving ability with a 37-yard touchdown catch against Oregon. However, the team managed only 274 total yards against the Ducks, indicating the run game struggled to find consistent traction. Establishing the ground attack will be crucial for the rest of the season, as it opens up play-action for Madsen and keeps pressure off a rebuilt offensive line. If Riley and Gaines can replicate their 2025 production against Pac-12 competition, the Broncos will control tempo and keep games close.

Boise State lost nearly its entire secondary and linebacker corps from 2025, and the preseason scouting report flagged tackling as a concern. Against Oregon, the defense bent but did not break early, forcing field goals and creating a turnover, but ultimately surrendered 497 total yards and 34 points. Jaden Mickey, the former Notre Dame transfer, is the anchor of a young secondary, while Boen Phelps provides speed at linebacker but must improve his tackling. The pass rush, which dropped from 55 sacks in 2024 to 27 in 2025, will rely on Max Stege and Jayden Virgin-Morgan to generate pressure. If the defense can force more stops against lesser opponents, the Broncos will be dangerous in the Pac-12.

Special teams were a sore spot in 2025, but the return of kicker Colton Boomer and punter Oscar Doyle provides stability. Boomer hit a 29-yard field goal against Oregon, and the Broncos won the special teams battle, including recovering a muffed punt. However, the return game still lacks explosiveness, and Bates, Quinton Brown, and Terrious Favors will need to provide a spark. In a game where the Broncos scored touchdowns on three of their four red zone trips, red zone efficiency will be critical in tight conference games. If Boomer remains reliable from long range and the return game improves, Boise State can win the hidden yardage battle.

Boise State enters the rebuilt Pac-12 as the favorite, and the Oregon game showed they can compete with elite teams. However, the Broncos must avoid letdowns against conference opponents like Memphis, who they host in Week 2. Madsen's experience and the return of key skill players give them an edge, but the loss of top receivers and defensive starters means young players must step up. If the Broncos can win the Pac-12 and secure a Group of Six playoff berth, the Oregon loss will be a footnote. The path is clear: dominate the conference, and the season will be judged by how they perform in the postseason.