Boise State Broncos is 6-1 on the season, 4-2-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +10.7. Boise State Broncos is covering the spread at 63% since the start of last season (12-7-2), well above the FBS average. The Boise State Broncos host Texas State next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Boise State Broncos Power Rating of +10.7 is 10.7 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Boise State Broncos have logged 5,232 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,447 miles, ranking 80th heaviest in the FBS.
Maddux Madsen QB, Cameron Bates WR, Matt Wagner TE, Dylan Riley RB, Sire Gaines RB, Quinton Brown WR, Terrious Favors WR
Jaden Mickey CB, Boen Phelps LB, Max Stege EDGE, Jayden Virgin-Morgan EDGE
Colton Boomer K, Oscar Doyle P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 4 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 6-1 | 5-2 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 6-1-1 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 6-2-1 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 6-4 | 6-3-1 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 7-3-1 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 7-4-1 | 6-6 |
| Week 15 | 9-4 | 8-4-1 | 6-7 |
| Postseason | 9-5 | 8-5-1 | 6-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +5.2 in the preseason and finished +10.7 after week 9, a move of +5.5 points. High +11.7 (week 7), low +4.4 (week 1).
PreW9
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.7 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Memphis | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Utah State | 10 | 10-0 | 8-2 |
| Fresno State | 9 | 4-5 | 3-6 |
| Washington State | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Colorado State | 9 | 8-1 | 6-3 |
| Oregon State | 3 | 2-1 | 0-2-1 |
| San Diego State | 7 | 4-3 | 3-4 |
No meeting on record since 2016: South Dakota, Western Michigan, Texas State.
Week 06,447 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Oregon | 345 mi | 690 mi |
| Week 2 | Memphis | Home | 690 mi |
| Week 3 | South Dakota | Home | 690 mi |
| Week 4 | Western Michigan | 1,545 mi | 3,780 mi |
| Week 5 | Utah State | Home | 3,780 mi |
| Week 6 | Fresno State | 505 mi | 4,790 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Washington State | 221 mi | 5,232 mi |
| Week 9 | Texas State | Home | 5,232 mi |
| Week 10 | Colorado State | 608 mi | 6,447 mi |
| Week 11 | Oregon State | Home | 6,447 mi |
| Week 12 | San Diego State | Home | 6,447 mi |
| Week 13 | - | Bye | |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Boise State opened with a 34-27 loss at No. 2 Oregon but has since rattled off six straight wins, including a 38-20 victory over Memphis, a 38-31 road win at Fresno State, and a 31-10 pull-away at Washington State. The Broncos are 6-1 overall and 3-0 in their inaugural Pac-12 season, already bowl eligible for the 29th consecutive year. The only blemish is a close road loss to a national power, and the response since has been emphatic.
Junior running back Dylan Riley has been the engine of the offense, leading the FBS in rushing for much of the season. He ran for 206 yards against Memphis, 198 against South Dakota, 138 at Western Michigan, 150 at Fresno State, and 128 at Washington State, including four touchdown runs of 70-plus yards. Sire Gaines, back from a wrist injury, adds a fresh second option, and the offensive line has jelled after preseason questions. The Broncos have topped 500 total yards in multiple games and control tempo with a punishing run game.
Redshirt senior quarterback Maddux Madsen has been a model of efficiency, throwing for multiple touchdowns in four of six games and entering Week 9 as the only quarterback in the nation with 10-plus touchdowns and no interceptions. He has spread the ball to a young receiving corps, with Cameron Bates, Matt Wagner, Rasean Jones, and Ben Ford all finding the end zone. His command of the offense has allowed Boise State to balance a run-heavy attack with timely play-action shots.
Despite the win streak, the rebuilt secondary has been vulnerable to explosive plays. Oregon's Dante Moore threw for 378 yards and three scores, Memphis's Marcus Stokes torched the Broncos for 384 yards and two long touchdowns in the first half, and Fresno State's Jayden Mandal added 218 yards and two scores. Jaden Mickey is the only proven piece in the back end, and the linebacker corps around Boen Phelps still misses tackles at the second level. Opponents have moved the ball through the air even in games Boise State has controlled.
A year after special teams were a liability, the Broncos have flipped the script. Cameron Bates returned a punt 72 yards for a touchdown against Memphis, Colton Boomer has been reliable from deep, and Oscar Doyle provides steady punting. The return game, with Bates, Quinton Brown, and Terrious Favors, has given Boise State an explosive edge it lacked in 2025. Situationally, the Broncos have also been strong, winning the critical downs against Oregon and closing out tight games against Fresno State and Washington State.
Boise State Broncos is 4-2-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 67% of games.
Boise State Broncos holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +10.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Boise State Broncos's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Boise State Broncos's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +105 over and -135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Boise State Broncos travels 6,447 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 80th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Boise State Broncos: 6-1 overall, 4-2-1 ATS, power rating +10.7 (2026 records).
