Utah State Aggies

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Utah State Aggies is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -9.9. Utah State Aggies enters the season with a power rating of -9.9, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Utah State Aggies head to Washington next in Week 2. In 2025, Utah State Aggies went 6-7 overall, 10-3 against the spread, and 6-7 on totals.

Conference: Pac-12 Conference
Stadium: Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
Power Rating (most current): -9.9
HFA Rating:2.9 pts
2026 Win Total:4.5
2026 Record: 0-1
2026 ATS: 0-1
2026 O/U: 0-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Utah State Aggies Power Rating of -9.9 is 9.9 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Utah State Aggies have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,808 miles, ranking 73rd heaviest in the FBS.

Utah State Aggies Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachBronco Mendenhall
Tenure1 season
Record at school6-7
Career record146-95 (19 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorRobert Anae
Defensive coordinatorNick Howell

Offense

McCae Hillstead QB, Anthony Garcia WR, Eli Wood WR, Javon Robinson WR, Javen Jacobs RB, Hyrum Hatch OL

Defense

Brevin Hamblin S, Bronson Olevao Jr. LB, Tyree Morris DL, Carson Tujague DL, Chris Joe LB, Chapman Lewis S, Antonio Bluiett CB

Special teams

Kian Afrookhteh K, Landon Rehkow P

2025 Season in Review

Record6-7 ATS10-3 O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 21-12-01-1
Week 32-13-02-1
Week 43-14-02-2
Week 53-25-03-2
Week 73-35-14-2
Week 84-36-14-3
Week 94-46-24-4
Week 115-47-25-4
Week 125-58-25-5
Week 136-59-25-6
Week 146-610-25-7
Postseason6-710-36-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -6.3 in the preseason and finished -9.9 after week 2, a move of -3.7 points. High -6.3 (the preseason), low -9.9 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from -6.3 to -9.9.

PreW2

Utah State Aggies SP+ Profile

Offence+23.787 of 138higher is better
Defence+30.9100 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.5116 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.1 pts
HFA measured+4.0 pts
HFA applied+2.9 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +4.0 is regressed to +2.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Idaho State22-02-0
Utah10-11-0
Boise State100-102-8
Washington State31-21-2
Colorado State85-32-5-1
Fresno State53-24-1
San Diego State64-24-2
Oregon State11-01-0

No meeting on record since 2016: Washington, Troy, Texas State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home35-2334-23-1 ATS · 58 games
On the road24-3324-31-2 ATS · 57 games
Neutral site2-52-5 ATS · 7 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

6,808 miles - ranked 73rd heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 6,808 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 06,808 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Idaho StateHome0 mi
Week 2Washington657 mi1,314 mi
Week 3Utah68 mi1,451 mi
Week 4TroyHome1,451 mi
Week 5Boise State257 mi1,965 mi
Week 6Washington StateHome1,965 mi
Week 7-Bye
Week 8Texas State1,127 mi4,219 mi
Week 9Colorado StateHome4,219 mi
Week 10Fresno StateHome4,219 mi
Week 11San Diego State684 mi5,586 mi
Week 12Oregon State611 mi6,808 mi
Week 13-Bye
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Utah State Aggies Season Outlook

A stunning home loss to an FCS opponent raises immediate alarm

Utah State opened the season with a 29-17 loss to Idaho State, an FCS team that entered as a 15.5-point underdog. The Aggies gave up five field goals and four interceptions, with quarterback McCae Hillstead throwing three picks and backup Grady Brosterhous adding another. The loss, which came at home with no travel and a comfortable setup, is a major red flag for a team that was expected to compete for a bowl berth. It also marks the first time in recent memory that the Aggies have fallen to an FCS opponent, and it puts the team in an early hole with a brutal schedule ahead.

Quarterback play is the biggest concern after a turnover-filled opener

McCae Hillstead, who transferred back from BYU after two seasons, threw for 178 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed three interceptions. His fourth-quarter pick helped seal the loss. The Aggies also got a late appearance from Grady Brosterhous, who threw an interception of his own. Hillstead showed flashes, including a 4-yard touchdown pass to Demick Starling that gave Utah State a 17-16 lead in the third quarter, but his decision-making was poor under pressure. With a new receiving corps that includes Anthony Garcia, Eli Wood, and Javon Robinson, the offense needs Hillstead to be more careful with the football, especially against tougher defenses like Washington and Utah.

Defensive improvement remains unproven after a shaky opener

The Aggies allowed 440.1 yards per game last season, worst in the Mountain West, and the 3-3-5 scheme was a point of concern entering the year. Against Idaho State, the defense gave up 29 points and could not stop the Bengals' field goal drives, as Mason Lindberg converted five attempts. The unit did force a few stops, but it also allowed an 8-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter that put the game out of reach. With only three returning starters on the defensive line and linebacker corps, plus new transfers like safety Chapman Lewis and cornerback Antonio Bluiett, the Aggies have yet to show they can consistently get off the field. The upcoming road game at Washington will be a much sterner test.

Special teams were a bright spot, but the kicking game remains a question

Punter Landon Rehkow averaged 42.9 yards per punt last season and is back, while long-snapper Hyrum Hatch returns as a former freshman All-American. New kicker Kian Afrookhteh, who was honorable mention All-Sun Belt at Coastal Carolina, did not attempt a field goal in the opener, so his reliability is still unknown. The Aggies did not have any special teams breakdowns against Idaho State, but they also did not get a boost from returns, despite Javen Jacobs being a weapon in that area. With a defense that may struggle, field position and kicking will be critical in close games, and the Aggies need Afrookhteh to be steady.

A brutal road ahead: Washington and Utah loom, and the season could spiral

Utah State now travels to No. 17 Washington as a 26.5-point underdog, with the prediction market giving them just a 4% chance to win. The Aggies also face Utah later in the season, and they may have to play Boise State twice. Last year, Utah State went 6-7 and beat only one bowl team, and this year's schedule includes multiple power-conference opponents on the road. After losing to an FCS team, the Aggies need to find answers quickly, or they risk a losing record and missing a bowl for the second straight year under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The continuity on offense and the return of key players like running back Javen Jacobs, who had 1,058 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns last year, offer some hope, but the margin for error is now razor thin.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Utah State Aggies's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Utah State Aggies is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.

What is Utah State Aggies's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Utah State Aggies holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -9.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Utah State Aggies's home field advantage rating?

Utah State Aggies's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Utah State Aggies's 2026 win total?

Utah State Aggies's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -160 over and +125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Utah State Aggies travel in 2026?

Utah State Aggies travels 6,808 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 73rd heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Utah State Aggies: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -9.9 (2026 records).