Texas State Bobcats

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Texas State Bobcats is 3-3 on the season, 3-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.5. Texas State Bobcats's games are going over the total at 83% this season (5-1), a notable trend for totals bettors. The Texas State Bobcats host Utah State next in Week 8.

Conference: Pac-12 Conference
Stadium: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
Power Rating (most current): -0.5
HFA Rating:2.9 pts
2026 Win Total:6.5
2026 Record: 3-3
2026 ATS: 3-3
2026 O/U: 5-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Texas State Bobcats Power Rating of -0.5 is 0.5 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Texas State Bobcats have logged 2,360 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,549 miles, ranking 48th heaviest in the FBS.

Texas State Bobcats Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachGJ Kinne
Tenure3 seasons
Record at school23-16
Career record35-18 (4 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorsLandon Keopple, Jordan Shoemaker
Defensive coordinatorsWill Windham, Matthew Gregg

Offense

Brad Jackson QB, Beau Sparks WR, Chris Dawn Jr. WR, Jaylen Jenkins RB

Defense

Ryan Nolan S, Ayden Jones LB, Terrence Cooks II LB

Special teams

Dylan Cunanan K, Thomas Flintoff P

2025 Season in Review

Record7-6 ATS5-8 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-01-0
Week 22-02-02-0
Week 32-12-12-1
Week 43-12-22-2
Week 63-22-32-3
Week 73-32-43-3
Week 83-42-54-3
Week 103-52-65-3
Week 113-62-76-3
Week 124-63-76-4
Week 135-63-86-5
Week 146-64-87-5
Postseason7-65-87-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -2.2 in the preseason and finished -0.5 after week 8, a move of +1.7 points. High -0.5 (week 8), low -7.0 (week 3).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -2.2 to -0.5.

PreW8

Texas State Bobcats SP+ Profile

Offence+31.826 of 138higher is better
Defence+37.8129 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.168 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.2 pts
HFA measured+4.3 pts
HFA applied+2.9 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +4.3 is regressed to +2.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
UTSA62-44-2
North Texas11-00-1
Incarnate Word21-11-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Texas, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, Washington State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home27-3424-36-1 ATS · 61 games
On the road13-4527-31 ATS · 58 games
Neutral site3-12-2 ATS · 4 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

8,549 miles - ranked 48th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 8,549 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 08,549 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Texas29 mi59 mi
Week 2UTSAHome59 mi
Week 3North TexasHome59 mi
Week 4Incarnate WordHome59 mi
Week 5San Diego State1,151 mi2,360 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7Colorado StateHome2,360 mi
Week 8Utah StateHome2,360 mi
Week 9Boise State1,380 mi5,121 mi
Week 10Oregon State1,714 mi8,549 mi
Week 11Fresno StateHome8,549 mi
Week 12Washington StateHome8,549 mi
Week 13-Bye
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Texas State Bobcats Season Outlook

Offensive identity: slow start, then a record-setting surge

Texas State's offense under GJ Kinne was expected to pick up where it left off, but the first two weeks were a struggle. The Bobcats managed just 7 points and 150 passing yards against Texas, then 26 points with two interceptions from Brad Jackson against UTSA. The breakthrough came in Week 3 against North Texas, when Jackson threw four touchdown passes and Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 214 yards in a 49-35 win. That sparked a stretch of four straight games with at least 29 points, including a 63-10 rout of Incarnate Word and a 66-27 demolition of Colorado State in which Texas State set a school record with 503 rushing yards and 716 total yards. Burgess (224 yards, four touchdowns) and Jackson (181 rushing yards, three scores) led the way. The offense now looks like the unit that averaged 36.5 points per game over the previous three seasons, and it is trending up.

Defensive overhaul still a work in progress

New coordinator Will Windham was brought in to fix a defense that had plagued Texas State for years, but the results have been mixed. The Bobcats allowed 59 points to Texas in the opener, then blew a fourth-quarter lead against UTSA, surrendering the go-ahead touchdown with 14 seconds left. Against North Texas, they gave up 35 points at home. Even in the Incarnate Word blowout, the defense allowed 10 points to an FCS opponent. The low point came at San Diego State, where the Aztecs scored on a 96-yard kickoff return and a 32-yard pick-six, and Texas State lost 31-29 despite allowing only 31 points. The defense has shown flashes, but it still struggles to get stops in critical moments and has yet to prove it can close out games consistently. With only three of the top six tacklers from 2025 returning, the unit remains the biggest question mark.

Brad Jackson's dual-threat ability drives the offense, but turnovers linger

Quarterback Brad Jackson has been the engine of the offense, but his decision-making has been inconsistent. He threw two interceptions against UTSA and two more against San Diego State, including a pick-six that swung the game. In the first two weeks, he was held under 200 passing yards in each game. However, he has also shown elite playmaking: he threw five first-half touchdown passes against Incarnate Word and ran for a career-high 181 yards and three scores against Colorado State. His ability to extend plays with his legs adds a dimension that defenses struggle to contain. If Jackson can cut down on turnovers and protect the ball, the offense becomes even more dangerous. His development in that area will be crucial for Texas State's chances in Pac-12 play.

Running back Torrance Burgess Jr. emerges as a workhorse

Senior running back Torrance Burgess Jr. has been a revelation in the backfield. After a solid 149-yard performance against UTSA, he exploded for 214 yards against North Texas and followed that with 140 yards on just nine carries against Incarnate Word. He then set career highs with 224 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Colorado State. Burgess has become the focal point of the running game, giving the offense balance and taking pressure off Brad Jackson. His vision and burst have been on full display, and he has consistently produced even when the passing game struggled early. As the season progresses, Burgess will remain a key weapon and a reliable option to control the clock and close out games.

Special teams and situational football remain concerns

Special teams have been a mixed bag. Kicker Dylan Cunanan, a transfer from Toledo, has been solid on field goals, but the punt team had a punt blocked against San Diego State, and the kickoff coverage allowed a 96-yard return for a touchdown in the same game. The return game has some promise with Jaylen Jenkins, who led the Sun Belt in kickoff return average in 2025, but he has not yet broken a big return this season. Situational football has also been an issue: the defense has struggled to hold leads, and the offense has had turnovers in critical moments. The Bobcats have been involved in several close games decided in the fourth quarter, and their ability to execute in crunch time will determine whether they can contend in the Pac-12. Cleaning up these details is essential for a strong finish.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Texas State Bobcats's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Texas State Bobcats is 3-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.

What is Texas State Bobcats's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Texas State Bobcats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Texas State Bobcats's home field advantage rating?

Texas State Bobcats's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Texas State Bobcats's 2026 win total?

Texas State Bobcats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +130 over and -165 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Texas State Bobcats travel in 2026?

Texas State Bobcats travels 8,549 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 48th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Texas State Bobcats: 3-3 overall, 3-3 ATS, power rating -0.5 (2026 records).