Texas State Bobcats is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -5.3. Texas State Bobcats enters the season with a power rating of -5.3, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Texas State Bobcats host UTSA next in Week 2. In 2025, Texas State Bobcats went 7-6 overall, 5-8 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Texas State Bobcats Power Rating of -5.3 is 5.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Texas State Bobcats have logged 59 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,549 miles, ranking 48th heaviest in the FBS.
Brad Jackson QB, Beau Sparks WR, Chris Dawn Jr. WR, Jaylen Jenkins RB
Ryan Nolan S, Ayden Jones LB, Terrence Cooks II LB
Dylan Cunanan K, Thomas Flintoff P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Week 10 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 4-6 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 6-6 | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Postseason | 7-6 | 5-8 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -2.2 in the preseason and finished -5.3 after week 2, a move of -3.1 points. High -2.2 (the preseason), low -5.3 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.3 is regressed to +2.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 6 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| North Texas | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Incarnate Word | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Texas, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, Boise State, Oregon State, Fresno State, Washington State.
Week 08,549 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Texas | 29 mi | 59 mi |
| Week 2 | UTSA | Home | 59 mi |
| Week 3 | North Texas | Home | 59 mi |
| Week 4 | Incarnate Word | Home | 59 mi |
| Week 5 | San Diego State | 1,151 mi | 2,360 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Colorado State | Home | 2,360 mi |
| Week 8 | Utah State | Home | 2,360 mi |
| Week 9 | Boise State | 1,380 mi | 5,121 mi |
| Week 10 | Oregon State | 1,714 mi | 8,549 mi |
| Week 11 | Fresno State | Home | 8,549 mi |
| Week 12 | Washington State | Home | 8,549 mi |
| Week 13 | - | Bye | |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The Bobcats opened 2026 with a 59-7 loss at No. 5 Texas, a game that was never competitive after the first quarter. Quarterback Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, was held to 150 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, while the offense managed under 350 total yards and turned the ball over three times. Head coach GJ Kinne called the performance 'pretty terrible' and said his team was 'outcoached more than outplayed.' The loss was a sobering reminder that even a prolific Sun Belt offense can be neutralized by a top-tier defense, and it set a harsh tone for the team's first season in the Pac-12.
New defensive coordinator Will Windham inherited a unit that lost three of its top six tacklers from 2025 and was already the team's weak link, with late-game collapses contributing to a 7-6 record last year. Against Texas, the defense showed signs of life early, holding the Longhorns to just 111 rushing yards after a 45-yard run on the first play, but it still surrendered 59 points and was gashed through the air by Arch Manning's four touchdown passes. The Bobcats did force no turnovers and allowed a 59-yard fumble return for a touchdown, underscoring the discipline issues Windham was hired to fix. With only three returning starters among the top tacklers, the unit's progress will be critical to any hopes of contending in the Pac-12.
Texas State returns nearly all of its skill-position talent from a unit that led the Sun Belt in total yards and finished top-two in scoring for three straight seasons. Brad Jackson is back for a second straight year as the starter, a rarity under Kinne, and he has two 1,000-yard receivers in Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. The Bobcats were the only FBS team with two 1,000-yard receivers in 2025, and they averaged 36.5 points per game over the past three seasons. However, the opener showed that this offense can be contained when facing elite competition, and the team will need Jackson to rediscover his dual-threat form (he rushed for 744 yards and 17 touchdowns last year) to keep drives alive and control the clock in close games.
After the short trip to Austin, Texas State returns home for a Week 2 matchup against UTSA, a game where they are slight favorites despite the Roadrunners' 1-0 start. The Bobcats will have a full week to correct their mistakes, and the home crowd at Bobcat Stadium should provide a boost. With a power rating that is still negative after the blowout loss, Texas State needs to string together wins against mid-tier opponents to build confidence and establish an identity before the Pac-12 schedule heats up. The team's ability to rebound from a demoralizing loss will be a key test of Kinne's leadership and the new defensive staff's ability to make adjustments.
Texas State has posted records of 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6 over the past three seasons under Kinne, consistently winning but never contending for a conference title. The move to the Pac-12 brings new opponents and higher expectations, but also longer road trips and a tougher overall schedule. The Bobcats' offense should keep them competitive in most games, but the defense must show significant improvement for the team to take the next step. The opener against Texas was a harsh introduction to the level of competition they will face, and how they respond in the coming weeks will determine whether this season is another .500 campaign or a breakthrough year.
Texas State Bobcats is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Texas State Bobcats holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -5.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Texas State Bobcats's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Texas State Bobcats's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +130 over and -165 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Texas State Bobcats travels 8,549 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 48th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Texas State Bobcats: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -5.3 (2026 records).
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