Oregon State Beavers is 0-1 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -8.2. Oregon State Beavers enters the season with a power rating of -8.2, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Oregon State Beavers host Texas Tech next in Week 2. In 2025, Oregon State Beavers went 2-10 overall, 3-9 against the spread, and 4-8 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Oregon State Beavers Power Rating of -8.2 is 8.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Oregon State Beavers have logged 3,672 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,982 miles, ranking 34th heaviest in the FBS.
Maalik Murphy QB, Braden Atkinson QB, Brady Jones QB, Cornell Hatcher Jr. RB, Xayvion Noland WR, Teko Shoats OL, Kwan Johnson OL, Tyler Voltin OL, Jonathan Zarut OL, Tug Sanford OL
Aiden Sullivan LB, Dylan Layne LB, TJ Crandall CB, Trey Glasper CB, Takari Hickle EDGE
Caleb Ojeda K, AJ Winsor P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Week 6 | 0-6 | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Week 7 | 0-7 | 1-6 | 3-4 |
| Week 8 | 1-7 | 2-6 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 2-7 | 3-6 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 2-8 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Week 12 | 2-9 | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 2-10 | 3-9 | 4-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -9.5 in the preseason and finished -8.2 after week 2, a move of +1.3 points. High -8.2 (week 2), low -9.5 (the preseason).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +5.8 is regressed to +3.7 before it is applied, a difference of 2.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Texas Tech | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Colorado State | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| San Diego State | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Washington State | 11 | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Fresno State | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Boise State | 3 | 1-2 | 2-0-1 |
| Utah State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Montana, UTEP, Texas State.
Week 09,982 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Houston | 1,836 mi | 3,672 mi |
| Week 2 | Texas Tech | Home | 3,672 mi |
| Week 3 | Montana | Home | 3,672 mi |
| Week 4 | UTEP | 1,265 mi | 6,202 mi |
| Week 5 | Colorado State | 966 mi | 8,134 mi |
| Week 6 | San Diego State | Home | 8,134 mi |
| Week 7 | Washington State | Home | 8,134 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Fresno State | 565 mi | 9,264 mi |
| Week 10 | Texas State | Home | 9,264 mi |
| Week 11 | Boise State | 359 mi | 9,982 mi |
| Week 12 | Utah State | Home | 9,982 mi |
| Week 13 | - | Bye | |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
First-year head coach JaMarcus Shephard inherited a program coming off a 2-10 season and is tasked with rebuilding a roster that lost several key players to comparable programs. The season opener at Houston showed both the promise and the distance still to travel. The Beavers fell 33-20 despite outgaining the Cougars in passing yards (376 to 305) and converting all three red zone trips. However, they managed just 26 rushing yards and went a combined 6 of 20 on third and fourth downs, exposing the offensive line's struggles against a quality front. The defense also allowed 533 total yards, confirming preseason concerns about size and depth on that side of the ball.
The preseason featured an open competition among Maalik Murphy, Braden Atkinson, and Brady Jones, with Shephard not planning to name a starter until mid-August. In the opener, Atkinson got the nod and delivered a solid individual performance, completing 29 of 48 passes for 376 yards and a touchdown while connecting with nine different receivers. His favorite target was Jesse Legree, who hauled in five catches for 136 yards and a score. The passing game showed life, but the lack of a running threat and the offensive line's inability to open holes made the offense one-dimensional. Whether Atkinson keeps the job or Murphy gets another look will be a storyline to monitor as the season progresses.
Preseason scouting reports flagged Oregon State's defensive line as undersized, and Houston exploited that vulnerability with 200 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Takari Hickle, who was described as 'unblockable' in spring practice, could not single-handedly anchor the front. The secondary, led by cornerbacks TJ Crandall and Trey Glasper, also had a rough day against Houston's passing attack, allowing 305 yards through the air. Linebackers Aiden Sullivan and Dylan Layne will need to step up, but the unit as a whole looks like the team's biggest weakness heading into a brutal stretch of the schedule.
Oregon State's special teams were historically bad in 2025 due to long-snapper injuries, and the team brought in Jonathan Zarut and Tug Sanford to fix the issue. In the opener, there were no glaring special teams disasters, which is a positive sign, but the unit also did not provide any game-changing plays. Kicker Caleb Ojeda and punter AJ Winsor remain reliable pieces, but the Beavers will need more consistency in the return game and coverage units to keep games close against tougher opponents.
The schedule does not get easier. After the loss at Houston, Oregon State hosts Texas Tech, a team that enters with a 1-0 record and a power rating nearly 27 points higher than the Beavers. The prediction market gives Oregon State just a 4% chance to win that game. With a young roster, a new coaching staff, and lingering depth issues, bowl eligibility would be a significant achievement. The fan base remembers the eight-win season in 2023, but this team is a long way from that level. The focus for the rest of the season should be on development, staying competitive in conference play, and building a foundation for the future under Shephard.
Oregon State Beavers is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Oregon State Beavers holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -8.2, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Oregon State Beavers's home field advantage rating is 3.7 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Oregon State Beavers's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 3.5 wins, priced at -155 over and +120 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Oregon State Beavers travels 9,982 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 34th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Oregon State Beavers: 0-1 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -8.2 (2026 records).
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