San Diego State Aztecs is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +0.1. San Diego State Aztecs enters the season with a power rating of +0.1, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The San Diego State Aztecs head to UCLA next in Week 2. In 2025, San Diego State Aztecs went 9-4 overall, 9-3 against the spread, and 4-9 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the San Diego State Aztecs Power Rating of +0.1 is 0.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. San Diego State Aztecs have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 9,052 miles, ranking 41st heaviest in the FBS.
Jayden Denegal QB, Lucky Sutton RB, Javion Kinnard RB, Bert Emanuel Jr. WR, Jordan Napier WR, Jacob Bostick WR
Nate Henrich EDGE, Tano Letuli LB, Sione Hala LB, Dalesean Staley S
Nick Clegg K, Tashi Dorje P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 4 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 4-1 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Week 9 | 6-1 | 5-1 | 3-4 |
| Week 10 | 7-1 | 6-1 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 3-6 |
| Week 12 | 8-2 | 7-2 | 3-7 |
| Week 13 | 9-2 | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Week 14 | 9-3 | 8-3 | 3-9 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 9-3 | 4-9 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -1.1 in the preseason and finished +0.1 after week 2, a move of +1.2 points. High +0.1 (week 2), low -1.1 (the preseason).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.4 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Toledo | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Oregon State | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Fresno State | 8 | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Colorado State | 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Washington State | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Utah State | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Boise State | 7 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Portland State, James Madison, Texas State.
Week 09,052 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Portland State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | UCLA | 113 mi | 225 mi |
| Week 3 | James Madison | Home | 225 mi |
| Week 4 | Toledo | 1,932 mi | 4,090 mi |
| Week 5 | Texas State | Home | 4,090 mi |
| Week 6 | Oregon State | 877 mi | 5,845 mi |
| Week 7 | Fresno State | Home | 5,845 mi |
| Week 8 | Colorado State | 856 mi | 7,556 mi |
| Week 9 | Washington State | Home | 7,556 mi |
| Week 10 | - | Bye | |
| Week 11 | Utah State | Home | 7,556 mi |
| Week 12 | Boise State | 748 mi | 9,052 mi |
| Week 13 | - | Bye | |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The Aztecs put up 53 points in the opener against Portland State, with quarterback Jayden Denegal completing 12 of 17 passes for 137 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Lucky Sutton rushed for three scores, though he averaged just over three yards per carry on 18 attempts. The passing game connected on a 40-yard touchdown to Justius Lowe, but the overall efficiency against an FCS opponent leaves room for improvement. With Denegal healthy after shoulder surgery and Sutton returning as a proven workhorse, the offense has a solid foundation, but the receiving corps, with Jordan Napier and Jacob Bostick both coming off knee reconstructions, remains a question mark. The unit will need to show more explosive plays and better run efficiency when facing Pac-12 defenses.
Jaylon Hawkins returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, the first for the Aztecs since 2022, and the special teams unit blocked two punts in the opener. That performance was a bright spot, especially with new kicker Nick Clegg and punter Tashi Dorje taking over after the graduation of Gabriel Plascencia and the transfer of Hunter Green. The return game, featuring Jordan Napier and Javion Kinnard, both All-Mountain West punt returners last season, should remain a strength. However, the kicking game has yet to be tested in a close contest, and the blocked punts and return touchdown came against an overmatched opponent. The Aztecs will need reliable placekicking and punting in tighter games, and the early returns are encouraging but not conclusive.
San Diego State's defense, which ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense and 11th in total defense last year, lost its top three defenders: edge Trey White, linebacker Owen Chambliss, and cornerback Chris Johnson. The opener against Portland State allowed new starters like edge Nate Henrich, a Division II transfer, and linebacker Sione Hala, from Weber State, to get their feet wet, but the Aztecs still gave up 20 points and 280 passing yards to an FCS team. Safety Dalesean Staley is the only returning starter in the secondary, and linebacker Tano Letuli is coming off knee surgery. The unit will face a much stiffer test at UCLA, and the early performance suggests there are gaps to close, particularly in pass coverage and generating pressure against higher-caliber offenses.
The Aztecs improved from 3-9 in 2024 to 9-4 in 2025, and they enter the reconstituted Pac-12 with optimism. The opener was a dominant win, but it came against an FCS opponent, and the team failed to cover a 40.5-point spread, which hints at some inconsistency. The schedule now takes them to UCLA, where they are a 12-point underdog, and the power ratings suggest a significant gap between the Aztecs and the Bruins. Head coach Sean Lewis has a 12-13 record at San Diego State, and while the program is on the rise with a new stadium and improved facilities, the defense's inexperience and the offense's need for more consistency will be tested in conference play. The Aztecs have the pieces to approach nine wins again, but they must prove they can compete with stronger opponents.
San Diego State Aztecs is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
San Diego State Aztecs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +0.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
San Diego State Aztecs's home field advantage rating is 2.7 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
San Diego State Aztecs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -145 over and +115 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
San Diego State Aztecs travels 9,052 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 41st heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
San Diego State Aztecs: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +0.1 (2026 records).
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