Fresno State Bulldogs is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -7.4. Fresno State Bulldogs enters the season with a power rating of -7.4, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Fresno State Bulldogs host Sacramento State next in Week 2. In 2025, Fresno State Bulldogs went 9-4 overall, 7-6 against the spread, and 5-8 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Fresno State Bulldogs Power Rating of -7.4 is 7.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Fresno State Bulldogs have logged 420 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,472 miles, ranking 79th heaviest in the FBS.
Khristian Martin QB, Jayden Mandal QB, Rayshon Luke RB, Bryson Donelson RB, Brandon Ramirez RB, Josiah Freeman WR, Ezekiel Avit WR, Jahlil McClain WR
Simeon Harris S, K'vion Thunderbird LB, Tytus Khajavi LB
Nick Verdugo P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 4 | 4-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-1 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 7 | 5-2 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 5-3 | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 6-3 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 6-6 | 5-7 |
| Postseason | 9-4 | 7-6 | 5-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -3.9 in the preseason and finished -7.4 after week 2, a move of -3.5 points. High -3.9 (week 1), low -7.4 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.2 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Sacramento State | 3 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| San José State | 9 | 6-3 | 6-2-1 |
| Washington State | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Boise State | 9 | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| San Diego State | 8 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
| Oregon State | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Utah State | 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Colorado State | 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Rice, Texas State.
Week 06,472 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | USC | 210 mi | 420 mi |
| Week 2 | Sacramento State | Home | 420 mi |
| Week 3 | San José State | 122 mi | 664 mi |
| Week 4 | Rice | Home | 664 mi |
| Week 5 | Washington State | 697 mi | 2,058 mi |
| Week 6 | Boise State | Home | 2,058 mi |
| Week 7 | San Diego State | 316 mi | 2,690 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | Oregon State | Home | 2,690 mi |
| Week 10 | Utah State | 545 mi | 3,780 mi |
| Week 11 | Texas State | 1,346 mi | 6,472 mi |
| Week 12 | Colorado State | Home | 6,472 mi |
| Week 13 | - | Bye | |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Fresno State opened 2026 with a 39-0 loss at USC, managing just 116 total yards and 2.6 yards per play. Quarterback Jayden Mandal, making his second career start after missing all of 2025 with injury, completed 7 of 15 passes for 77 yards and committed two turnovers, including a fumble forced by Kennedy Urlacher. He was also sacked twice in the end zone for safeties. Head coach Matt Entz kept Mandal in the game all night, saying afterward that he wanted him to work through the pressure, but the performance underscored the inexperience in a quarterback room that entered the season with only 82 combined FBS snaps. The Bulldogs could not sustain drives, and the running game, expected to be a strength with Rayshon Luke, Bryson Donelson, and Brandon Ramirez, never got going against a USC defense that allowed just 49 yards through three quarters.
Fresno State's defense ranked first in the Mountain West and 10th nationally in yards allowed per game last season, and second nationally in passing defense, but against USC it gave up 349 passing yards and three touchdowns to Jayden Maiava, who completed 23 of 25 passes. The Bulldogs did force two turnovers, including a first career interception by sixth-year safety Prophet Brown, who missed all of 2025 with injury. Still, the unit could not generate consistent pressure or limit explosive plays, as USC scored on its opening drive and built a 30-0 halftime lead. The performance raises questions about whether the defense can replicate its 2025 numbers against a tougher schedule that includes more Pac-12-caliber opponents, though the return of nickel Simeon Harris and linebackers K'vion Thunderbird and Tytus Khajavi should help.
Khristian Martin, a transfer from Maryland, was considered the front-runner for the starting job in the preseason, but Jayden Mandal got the start against USC. Mandal's struggles did not lead to a change during the game, as Entz kept him in for the full contest. The coach said afterward that Mandal showed flashes but also dropped his eyes and watched the rush at times, which he attributed to inexperience. With Martin still available and both quarterbacks adding a running element, the competition may not be over. The Bulldogs' next game against Sacramento State could provide an opportunity for either quarterback to build confidence, but the coaching staff's decision on who starts will be a key storyline.
Fresno State lost kicker Dylan Lynch from last season and has not yet shown who will handle field goals and extra points in 2026. Punter Nick Verdugo returns and was part of a special teams unit that led the Mountain West in opponent kickoff and punt return average last season, allowing just 16.1 and 3.0 yards per return, respectively. Against USC, the Bulldogs did not attempt a field goal, so the new kicker remains untested in game action. Special teams coordinator John Baxter has a strong track record, but the lack of a proven kicker could become a factor in close games later in the season.
After the loss to USC, Fresno State hosts Sacramento State, an FCS opponent, in Week 2. The Bulldogs are heavy favorites, with a 90% win probability per the prediction market, and the game should provide a chance to get the offense on track and build confidence for the young quarterbacks. Sacramento State has a power rating of -21.84, far below Fresno State's, and the game is at home, where the Bulldogs have a venue advantage. A convincing win could help stabilize the team before the schedule gets tougher again. The Bulldogs' 2025 season included a 9-4 record and a bowl win, but that came against a weaker slate; this year's schedule is more challenging, and the team needs to show it can beat lesser opponents convincingly to build momentum for conference play.
Fresno State Bulldogs is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Fresno State Bulldogs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -7.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Fresno State Bulldogs's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Fresno State Bulldogs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -200 over and +155 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Fresno State Bulldogs travels 6,472 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 79th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Fresno State Bulldogs: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -7.4 (2026 records).
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