North Texas Mean Green

By · Last updated

North Texas Mean Green is 4-2 on the season, 4-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +0.7. North Texas Mean Green is covering the spread at 70% since the start of last season (14-6), well above the FBS average. The North Texas Mean Green head to Navy next in Week 8.

Conference: American Athletic Conference
Stadium: DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX
Power Rating (most current): +0.7
HFA Rating:2.8 pts
2026 Win Total:6.5
2026 Record: 4-2
2026 ATS: 4-2
2026 O/U: 5-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 6 of 2026 the North Texas Mean Green Power Rating of +0.7 is 0.7 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. North Texas Mean Green have logged 2,339 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,266 miles, ranking 84th heaviest in the FBS.

North Texas Mean Green Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachNeal Brown
TenureFirst season
Career record72-51 (10 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorNeal Brown
Defensive coordinatorsMatt Powledge, Bradley Dale Peveto

Offense

Chris Jimerson Jr. QB, TJ Chukwurah WR, Jahiem White RB, Chandler Strong OL

Defense

Terrell Washington DL, Aaron Alexander LB, Zakye Baker LB, Caden Jenkins CB, Cameren Jenkins S

Special teams

Dominic De Freitas K

2025 Season in Review

Record12-2 ATS10-4 O/U10-4
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-01-11-1
Week 33-02-12-1
Week 44-03-13-1
Week 55-04-13-2
Week 75-14-24-2
Week 86-15-25-2
Week 97-16-26-2
Week 108-17-26-3
Week 129-18-27-3
Week 1310-19-28-3
Week 1411-110-29-3
Week 1511-210-39-4
Postseason12-210-410-4

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -0.3 in the preseason and finished +0.7 after week 8, a move of +1.0 points. High +0.7 (week 8), low -3.3 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -0.3 to +0.7.

PreW8

North Texas Mean Green SP+ Profile

Offence+23.690 of 138higher is better
Defence+35.2124 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.288 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±6.0 pts
HFA measured+3.7 pts
HFA applied+2.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
UNLV10-10-1
Texas State10-11-0
Houston Christian11-01-0
Tulsa22-02-0
Charlotte31-21-2
Navy21-12-0
Florida Atlantic53-21-4
Rice87-15-3
UTSA115-65-6
Tulane30-31-2
UAB73-41-5-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Indiana.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home40-2130-29-2 ATS · 61 games
On the road26-3331-28 ATS · 59 games
Neutral site1-73-5 ATS · 8 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

6,266 miles - ranked 84th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 6,266 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 06,266 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Indiana722 mi1,445 mi
Week 2UNLVHome1,445 mi
Week 3Texas State233 mi1,910 mi
Week 4Houston ChristianHome1,910 mi
Week 5Tulsa214 mi2,339 mi
Week 6CharlotteHome2,339 mi
Week 7-Bye
Week 8Navy1,219 mi4,777 mi
Week 9Florida AtlanticHome4,777 mi
Week 10RiceHome4,777 mi
Week 11UTSA272 mi5,322 mi
Week 12Tulane472 mi6,266 mi
Week 13UABHome6,266 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

North Texas Mean Green Season Outlook

New coach, new roster, same high-scoring identity

Neal Brown took over a program that led the FBS in yards and points last season, but he inherited a team with zero returning starters on offense after Eric Morris and several key players left for Oklahoma State. Brown brought in 70 new players, including 53 transfers, and installed a run-first scheme. The early returns are promising: North Texas is 4-2 and has scored 44 or more points in four of its last five games. The offense now features a balanced attack with quarterback Tayven Jackson and running back Jahiem White, who have emerged as one of the most productive duos in the country.

Tayven Jackson and Jahiem White power the offense

Jackson, a transfer from UCF, has thrown for 1,519 yards and 14 touchdowns with only three interceptions, completing 68.5 percent of his passes. He set a career high with four touchdown passes in the overtime win at Tulsa, then broke it with five against Charlotte. White, a transfer from West Virginia, has rushed for 582 yards and eight touchdowns while adding two receiving scores. He ran for 219 yards at Tulsa and 133 yards with four touchdowns against Houston Christian. The duo ranks among the nation's best: Jackson is fifth in passing yards and White is ninth in rushing yards, making North Texas the only FBS team with a top-10 passer and rusher.

Defense thrives on takeaways but remains vulnerable against the run

First-year coordinator Matt Powledge has built a defense that hunts the ball. The Mean Green forced five fumbles and recorded four sacks and an interception in a 44-6 rout of UNLV, and they added a pick-six against Houston Christian. However, the run defense that ranked 130th nationally last season (215.7 yards per game) still has holes. Texas State rushed for 337 yards in a 49-35 loss, and Tulsa put up 44 points. The pass defense, which was a strength last year, has been solid but not dominant. The unit has yet to face a balanced offense like Navy's, which will test its discipline.

Special teams and field position have been steady

Kicker Dominic De Freitas, a transfer from Appalachian State, has been reliable, making 8 of 10 field goals and all 20 extra points. The return game lost its top returners from last season, but the coverage units have been solid. Punter Sawyer Evans has helped flip field position, and the Mean Green have won the turnover battle in four of six games. In a close conference race, special teams could be the difference.

Schedule lightens, but road tests loom

North Texas has already faced defending national champion Indiana on the road and played Texas State and Tulsa away from home. The remaining schedule includes a trip to Navy, a home game against USF, and a road finale at Memphis. The Mean Green are 2-0 in American Conference play for the first time since 2018 and control their destiny in the AAC race. With a veteran quarterback and a dynamic running back, they have the firepower to compete for a conference title, but the defense must tighten up against the run to avoid shootouts. The next test at Navy will show whether this team is a true contender or still a year away.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is North Texas Mean Green's against-the-spread record in 2026?

North Texas Mean Green is 4-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 67% of games.

What is North Texas Mean Green's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

North Texas Mean Green holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +0.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is North Texas Mean Green's home field advantage rating?

North Texas Mean Green's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is North Texas Mean Green's 2026 win total?

North Texas Mean Green's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +155 over and -210 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does North Texas Mean Green travel in 2026?

North Texas Mean Green travels 6,266 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 84th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

North Texas Mean Green: 4-2 overall, 4-2 ATS, power rating +0.7 (2026 records).