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North Texas Mean Green is 4-2 on the season, 4-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +0.7. North Texas Mean Green is covering the spread at 70% since the start of last season (14-6), well above the FBS average. The North Texas Mean Green head to Navy next in Week 8.
In Week 6 of 2026 the North Texas Mean Green Power Rating of +0.7 is 0.7 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. North Texas Mean Green have logged 2,339 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,266 miles, ranking 84th heaviest in the FBS.
Chris Jimerson Jr. QB, TJ Chukwurah WR, Jahiem White RB, Chandler Strong OL
Terrell Washington DL, Aaron Alexander LB, Zakye Baker LB, Caden Jenkins CB, Cameren Jenkins S
Dominic De Freitas K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Week 10 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 9-1 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 10-1 | 9-2 | 8-3 |
| Week 14 | 11-1 | 10-2 | 9-3 |
| Week 15 | 11-2 | 10-3 | 9-4 |
| Postseason | 12-2 | 10-4 | 10-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -0.3 in the preseason and finished +0.7 after week 8, a move of +1.0 points. High +0.7 (week 8), low -3.3 (week 2).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Texas State | 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Houston Christian | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Tulsa | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Charlotte | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Navy | 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rice | 8 | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| UTSA | 11 | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Tulane | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| UAB | 7 | 3-4 | 1-5-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Indiana.
Week 06,266 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Indiana | 722 mi | 1,445 mi |
| Week 2 | UNLV | Home | 1,445 mi |
| Week 3 | Texas State | 233 mi | 1,910 mi |
| Week 4 | Houston Christian | Home | 1,910 mi |
| Week 5 | Tulsa | 214 mi | 2,339 mi |
| Week 6 | Charlotte | Home | 2,339 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Navy | 1,219 mi | 4,777 mi |
| Week 9 | Florida Atlantic | Home | 4,777 mi |
| Week 10 | Rice | Home | 4,777 mi |
| Week 11 | UTSA | 272 mi | 5,322 mi |
| Week 12 | Tulane | 472 mi | 6,266 mi |
| Week 13 | UAB | Home | 6,266 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Neal Brown took over a program that led the FBS in yards and points last season, but he inherited a team with zero returning starters on offense after Eric Morris and several key players left for Oklahoma State. Brown brought in 70 new players, including 53 transfers, and installed a run-first scheme. The early returns are promising: North Texas is 4-2 and has scored 44 or more points in four of its last five games. The offense now features a balanced attack with quarterback Tayven Jackson and running back Jahiem White, who have emerged as one of the most productive duos in the country.
Jackson, a transfer from UCF, has thrown for 1,519 yards and 14 touchdowns with only three interceptions, completing 68.5 percent of his passes. He set a career high with four touchdown passes in the overtime win at Tulsa, then broke it with five against Charlotte. White, a transfer from West Virginia, has rushed for 582 yards and eight touchdowns while adding two receiving scores. He ran for 219 yards at Tulsa and 133 yards with four touchdowns against Houston Christian. The duo ranks among the nation's best: Jackson is fifth in passing yards and White is ninth in rushing yards, making North Texas the only FBS team with a top-10 passer and rusher.
First-year coordinator Matt Powledge has built a defense that hunts the ball. The Mean Green forced five fumbles and recorded four sacks and an interception in a 44-6 rout of UNLV, and they added a pick-six against Houston Christian. However, the run defense that ranked 130th nationally last season (215.7 yards per game) still has holes. Texas State rushed for 337 yards in a 49-35 loss, and Tulsa put up 44 points. The pass defense, which was a strength last year, has been solid but not dominant. The unit has yet to face a balanced offense like Navy's, which will test its discipline.
Kicker Dominic De Freitas, a transfer from Appalachian State, has been reliable, making 8 of 10 field goals and all 20 extra points. The return game lost its top returners from last season, but the coverage units have been solid. Punter Sawyer Evans has helped flip field position, and the Mean Green have won the turnover battle in four of six games. In a close conference race, special teams could be the difference.
North Texas has already faced defending national champion Indiana on the road and played Texas State and Tulsa away from home. The remaining schedule includes a trip to Navy, a home game against USF, and a road finale at Memphis. The Mean Green are 2-0 in American Conference play for the first time since 2018 and control their destiny in the AAC race. With a veteran quarterback and a dynamic running back, they have the firepower to compete for a conference title, but the defense must tighten up against the run to avoid shootouts. The next test at Navy will show whether this team is a true contender or still a year away.
North Texas Mean Green is 4-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 67% of games.
North Texas Mean Green holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +0.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
North Texas Mean Green's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
North Texas Mean Green's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +155 over and -210 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
North Texas Mean Green travels 6,266 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 84th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
North Texas Mean Green: 4-2 overall, 4-2 ATS, power rating +0.7 (2026 records).