TCU Horned Frogs

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TCU Horned Frogs is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +5.7. TCU Horned Frogs enters the season with a power rating of +5.7, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The TCU Horned Frogs host Grambling next in Week 2. In 2025, TCU Horned Frogs went 9-4 overall, 7-5-1 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.

Conference: Big 12 Conference
Stadium: Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Power Rating (most current): +5.7
HFA Rating:3.3 pts
2026 Win Total:6.5
2026 Record: 0-1
2026 ATS: 0-1
2026 O/U: 0-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 0 of 2026 the TCU Horned Frogs Power Rating of +5.7 is 5.7 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. TCU Horned Frogs have logged 8,995 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 13,285 miles, ranking 15th heaviest in the FBS.

TCU Horned Frogs Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachSonny Dykes
Tenure4 seasons
Record at school36-17
Career record107-80 (15+ seasons)
Offensive coordinatorsGordon Sammis, A.J. Ricker
Defensive coordinatorAndy Avalos

Offense

Jaden Craig QB, Jeremy Payne RB, Jordan Dwyer WR, Terry Shelton WR, Dozie Ezukanma WR, Noah McKinney OL, Jaheim Buchanon OL

Defense

Markis Deal DL, Zach Chapman EDGE, Max Carroll LB, Jamel Johnson S, Gil Jackson CB, Vernon Glover Jr. CB

Special teams

Kyle Lemmermann K, John Hoyet Chance P

2025 Season in Review

Record9-4 ATS7-5-1 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-01-0
Week 32-01-12-0
Week 43-02-12-1
Week 53-12-1-12-2
Week 64-13-1-12-3
Week 74-23-2-13-3
Week 85-24-2-14-3
Week 96-24-3-14-4
Week 116-34-4-14-5
Week 126-44-5-15-5
Week 137-45-5-15-6
Week 148-46-5-16-6
Postseason9-47-5-17-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +9.4 in the preseason and finished +5.7 after week 2, a move of -3.7 points. High +9.4 (the preseason), low +5.7 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from +9.4 to +5.7.

PreW2

TCU Horned Frogs SP+ Profile

Offence+31.331 of 138higher is better
Defence+21.940 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.285 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±0.8 pts
HFA measured+5.5 pts
HFA applied+3.3 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +5.5 is regressed to +3.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
North Carolina11-01-0
UCF10-10-1
BYU21-11-1
Baylor108-25-5
West Virginia93-61-8
Kansas87-14-3-1
Arizona11-01-0
Kansas State103-72-8
Utah11-01-0
Texas Tech96-34-5

No meeting on record since 2016: Grambling, Arkansas State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home41-2226-37 ATS · 63 games
On the road29-2423-28-2 ATS · 53 games
Neutral site6-56-5 ATS · 11 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

13,285 miles - ranked 15th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 13,285 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 013,285 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0North Carolina4,497 mi8,995 mi
Week 1-Bye
Week 2GramblingHome8,995 mi
Week 3Arkansas StateHome8,995 mi
Week 4UCF1,003 mi11,000 mi
Week 5BYUHome11,000 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7Baylor81 mi11,162 mi
Week 8West VirginiaHome11,162 mi
Week 9KansasHome11,162 mi
Week 10Arizona793 mi12,749 mi
Week 11Kansas StateHome12,749 mi
Week 12UtahHome12,749 mi
Week 13Texas Tech268 mi13,285 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

TCU Horned Frogs Season Outlook

Offense Searching for Rhythm After Slow Start

TCU's new-look offense, led by Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig and coordinator Gordon Sammis, struggled to find consistency in the season opener against North Carolina. The Frogs scored on their first two drives, taking a 10-3 lead, but managed just 26 rushing yards after halftime and failed to score again. Craig completed 20 of 32 passes for 175 yards, but the offense stalled in the red zone, turning the ball over on downs twice inside the Tar Heels' 10-yard line. Running back Jeremy Payne, who had 142 yards on the ground, was stopped on a fourth-and-1 from the 5, and Craig threw an incompletion on fourth-and-2 from the 10. The Frogs had scored at least 30 points in their last 10 season openers, so the 10-point output was a stark departure. Establishing a more consistent ground game and finishing drives will be critical as the season progresses.

Defense Shows Promise but Needs More Pressure

TCU's defense kept the team in the game against North Carolina, allowing only 15 points, but the unit struggled to get off the field on third down and failed to generate consistent pressure. The defensive line, anchored by tackle Markis Deal and end Zach Chapman, was expected to be a strength, but the Frogs did not record a sack in the opener. The secondary, which was a weakness last season, held up reasonably well, but the lack of pass rush allowed North Carolina quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. to complete 16 of 28 passes for 232 yards. The defense also gave up a 13-play drive late in the game that ate clock and set up a missed field goal, but the Frogs were unable to capitalize. Improving third-down defense and creating more negative plays will be key for a unit that returns several starters but lost All-Big 12 performers at linebacker and safety.

Special Teams and Turnovers Prove Costly

TCU's special teams had a mixed day in Dublin, with a 33-yard punt return by Ed Small setting up the team's only touchdown, but a disastrous sequence in the second quarter proved pivotal. A snap sailed over punter John Hoyet Chance's head, and he kicked the ball out of the back of the end zone for a safety, giving North Carolina a 12-10 lead just before halftime. The Frogs also lost a fumble on a blindside sack of Craig, which led to a North Carolina field goal. These mistakes, combined with an inability to convert in the red zone, were the difference in a one-score game. Cleaning up special teams miscues and protecting the football will be essential for TCU to win close games in Big 12 play.

New Faces and Key Returners Form the Core

TCU entered the season with significant roster turnover, including a new quarterback, offensive coordinator, and several new starters on defense. Jaden Craig, the Harvard transfer, showed mobility and accuracy at times but also took a sack that led to a fumble. The offensive line, which returns three starters and added transfers Noah McKinney and Jaheim Buchanon, was expected to be a strength, but the Frogs struggled to protect Craig in key moments. On defense, middle linebacker Max Carroll is stepping into a larger role, and cornerback Gil Jackson, who emerged in the spring, is part of a secondary that needs to improve. The team also returns safety Jamel Johnson, who had 96 tackles and five interceptions last year, and kicker Kyle Lemmermann, who is hoping for a bounce-back season after dealing with injuries. The development of these new and returning players will determine TCU's ceiling.

Early-Season Tests and a Path Forward

TCU's season opener against North Carolina was a neutral-site game in Dublin, Ireland, a long trip that may have contributed to a slow start. The Frogs now have an open date before hosting Grambling State on Sept. 13, a game that should provide an opportunity to build confidence and work on offensive consistency. After that, TCU will face a challenging Big 12 schedule, and the team's ability to play complementary football, as one opposing coach noted, will be crucial. The Frogs have talent at the skill positions, including receivers Jordan Dwyer, Terry Shelton, and Dozie Ezukanma, but they need to develop a power-run game to control the clock and keep the defense fresh. With a new quarterback and coordinator, early-season struggles are not uncommon, but TCU's ceiling as a Big 12 contender will depend on how quickly the offense can find its identity and whether the defense can generate more pressure and turnovers.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is TCU Horned Frogs's against-the-spread record in 2026?

TCU Horned Frogs is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.

What is TCU Horned Frogs's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

TCU Horned Frogs holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +5.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is TCU Horned Frogs's home field advantage rating?

TCU Horned Frogs's home field advantage rating is 3.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is TCU Horned Frogs's 2026 win total?

TCU Horned Frogs's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -160 over and +125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does TCU Horned Frogs travel in 2026?

TCU Horned Frogs travels 13,285 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 15th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

TCU Horned Frogs: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +5.7 (2026 records).