Week 3
Amon G. Carter Stadium

Arkansas State @ TCU , Week 3, Sep 20, 2026

0-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.0
0-1 Big 12 Power rating: 9.4

Is there value in the Arkansas State vs TCU line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TCU -22.2
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors TCU ▸
18.4 › TCU
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1 ARST1 TCU2 ARST2 TCU3 ARST3 TCUModel: TCU -22.2

TCU (power rating: 9.4) holds a 18.4-point advantage over Arkansas State (-9.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. TCU's home field adds 3.3 points to that advantage at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Beyond home field, the model also charges the heat. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Arkansas State vs TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium?

The latest reading for Amon G. Carter Stadium shows Clear, 95°F with winds of 7 mph. Heat of 95°F is a conditioning factor, particularly in the second half, and the market has historically charged nothing for it. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Arkansas State and TCU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor TCU (9.4) over Arkansas State (-9.0) by 18.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. TCU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this TCU -22.2. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

95°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity29%
Wind7 mph SSE
Gusts14 mph
Wind map for Arkansas State at TCU: aerial view of Amon G. Carter Stadium, wind from the SSE at 7.2 mph, gusting to 13.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Capacity
47,000
Elevation
646 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure Arkansas StateAway TCUHome
This week440 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total567 miles8,995 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest8 days7 days

Arkansas State travels 440 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.