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Texas Tech Red Raiders is 6-0 on the season, 3-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +17.1. Texas Tech Red Raiders is covering the spread at 74% since the start of last season (14-5), well above the FBS average. The Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Cincinnati next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Texas Tech Red Raiders Power Rating of +17.1 is 17.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Texas Tech Red Raiders have logged 3,703 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,050 miles, ranking 68th heaviest in the FBS.
Kirk Francis QB, Lloyd Jones III QB, Will Hammond QB, Cameron Dickey RB, J'Koby Williams RB, Howard Sampson OL, Jacob Ponton OL, Sheridan Wilson OL, Terrance Carter Jr. TE, Kenny Johnson WR
Trey White EDGE, Adam Trick EDGE, Austin Romaine LB, Ben Roberts LB, Brice Pollock CB
Stone Harrington K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 5-1 | 3-4 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 6-1 | 3-5 |
| Week 10 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 9-1 | 8-1 | 4-6 |
| Week 12 | 10-1 | 9-1 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 11-1 | 10-1 | 5-7 |
| Week 15 | 12-1 | 11-1 | 5-8 |
| Postseason | 12-2 | 11-2 | 5-9 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +20.9 in the preseason and finished +17.1 after week 8, a move of -3.8 points. High +21.1 (week 1), low +14.7 (week 5).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 1.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Christian | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Oregon State | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Houston | 6 | 6-0 | 5-1 |
| Colorado | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Arizona State | 4 | 2-2 | 1-2-1 |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 1-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Arizona | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| West Virginia | 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Oklahoma State | 9 | 4-5 | 8-1 |
| Baylor | 9 | 4-5 | 5-3-1 |
| TCU | 9 | 3-6 | 5-4 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Sam Houston.
Week 07,050 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Abilene Christian | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Oregon State | 1,371 mi | 2,742 mi |
| Week 3 | Houston | Home | 2,742 mi |
| Week 4 | Sam Houston | Home | 2,742 mi |
| Week 5 | Colorado | 481 mi | 3,703 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Arizona State | Home | 3,703 mi |
| Week 8 | Cincinnati | 1,038 mi | 5,780 mi |
| Week 9 | Arizona | Home | 5,780 mi |
| Week 10 | West Virginia | Home | 5,780 mi |
| Week 11 | Oklahoma State | 324 mi | 6,429 mi |
| Week 12 | Baylor | 311 mi | 7,050 mi |
| Week 13 | TCU | Home | 7,050 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Texas Tech sits at 6-0, yet the path has been bumpier than the record suggests. The Red Raiders failed to cover in their first three games and needed a late touchdown to escape Oregon State, a goal-line stand to hold off Houston, and a second-half surge to put away Sam Houston. The offense has been efficient but not explosive, and self-inflicted wounds (interceptions, stalled drives) have kept inferior opponents within reach. The market has consistently priced Texas Tech as a top-10 team, but the on-field product has yet to match that margin.
J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey form one of the most productive backfields in the Big 12. Williams ran for 116 yards and a score at Oregon State, then exploded for a career-high 165 yards and two long touchdowns against Arizona State. Dickey has been the short-yardage hammer, converting a critical fourth-and-1 against Houston and scoring twice versus Sam Houston. With quarterback Will Hammond still finding his footing as a full-time starter, the Red Raiders lean heavily on their ground attack to control games and set up play-action.
The defense has been a tale of two units: a ball-hawking secondary that has produced eight interceptions in the last two games (including four pick-sixes) and a pass defense that has been shredded by opposing quarterbacks. Oregon State's Braden Atkinson threw for 399 yards and Jesse Legree torched the Red Raiders for 240 receiving yards, while Houston hung 26 points in Lubbock. The front seven, rebuilt after losing multiple NFL draft picks, has struggled to generate consistent pressure without blitzing, leaving the young secondary exposed. The turnover spree is unsustainable, and better offenses will capitalize if the coverage issues persist.
Will Hammond has shown poise and efficiency, completing 18 of 26 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in the win over Arizona State, but he has yet to consistently stretch defenses vertically. His three-interception first half against Sam Houston highlighted lingering decision-making issues, and he has topped 260 passing yards only once since Week 1. The coaching staff has gradually expanded his role, and the bye week allowed for extra refinement. If Hammond can build on his composed second half against the Sun Devils, the offense could finally reach its ceiling.
Texas Tech's remaining schedule features several potential traps, starting with a trip to Cincinnati. The Bearcats are 4-2 and capable of moving the ball, and the Red Raiders have yet to put together a complete four-quarter performance. With the Big 12 race tightening, the margin for error shrinks. The defense must tighten its coverage, the offense must finish drives, and the special teams (led by Stone Harrington's reliable leg) must continue to provide an edge. If the Red Raiders can eliminate the self-inflicted wounds that have plagued them, they have the talent to defend their conference title. If not, their unbeaten start could unravel quickly.
Texas Tech Red Raiders is 3-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.
Texas Tech Red Raiders holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +17.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Texas Tech Red Raiders's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Texas Tech Red Raiders's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 11.5 wins, priced at +180 over and -230 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Texas Tech Red Raiders travels 7,050 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 68th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 6-0 overall, 3-3 ATS, power rating +17.1 (2026 records).