Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Texas Tech Red Raiders is 6-0 on the season, 3-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +17.1. Texas Tech Red Raiders is covering the spread at 74% since the start of last season (14-5), well above the FBS average. The Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Cincinnati next in Week 8.

Conference: Big 12 Conference
Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Power Rating (most current): +17.1
HFA Rating:2.8 pts
2026 Win Total:11.5
2026 Record: 6-0
2026 ATS: 3-3
2026 O/U: 4-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Texas Tech Red Raiders Power Rating of +17.1 is 17.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Texas Tech Red Raiders have logged 3,703 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,050 miles, ranking 68th heaviest in the FBS.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJoey McGuire
Tenure4 seasons
Record35-18
Offensive coordinatorMack Leftwich
Defensive coordinatorsShiel Wood, Rob Greene

Offense

Kirk Francis QB, Lloyd Jones III QB, Will Hammond QB, Cameron Dickey RB, J'Koby Williams RB, Howard Sampson OL, Jacob Ponton OL, Sheridan Wilson OL, Terrance Carter Jr. TE, Kenny Johnson WR

Defense

Trey White EDGE, Adam Trick EDGE, Austin Romaine LB, Ben Roberts LB, Brice Pollock CB

Special teams

Stone Harrington K

2025 Season in Review

Record12-2 ATS11-2 O/U5-9
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-01-0
Week 22-01-02-0
Week 33-02-02-1
Week 44-03-02-2
Week 65-04-02-3
Week 76-05-03-3
Week 86-15-13-4
Week 97-16-13-5
Week 108-17-14-5
Week 119-18-14-6
Week 1210-19-15-6
Week 1411-110-15-7
Week 1512-111-15-8
Postseason12-211-25-9

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +20.9 in the preseason and finished +17.1 after week 8, a move of -3.8 points. High +21.1 (week 1), low +14.7 (week 5).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +20.9 to +17.1.

PreW8

Texas Tech Red Raiders SP+ Profile

Offence+37.68 of 138higher is better
Defence+14.710 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.252 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.3 pts
HFA measured+3.8 pts
HFA applied+2.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 1.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Abilene Christian11-00-1
Oregon State11-01-0
Houston66-05-1
Colorado10-10-1
Arizona State42-21-2-1
Cincinnati11-00-0-1
Arizona21-11-1
West Virginia106-46-4
Oklahoma State94-58-1
Baylor94-55-3-1
TCU93-65-4

No meeting on record since 2016: Sam Houston.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home40-2334-24-5 ATS · 63 games
On the road19-3126-24 ATS · 50 games
Neutral site7-57-5 ATS · 12 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

7,050 miles - ranked 68th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 7,050 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 07,050 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Abilene ChristianHome0 mi
Week 2Oregon State1,371 mi2,742 mi
Week 3HoustonHome2,742 mi
Week 4Sam HoustonHome2,742 mi
Week 5Colorado481 mi3,703 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7Arizona StateHome3,703 mi
Week 8Cincinnati1,038 mi5,780 mi
Week 9ArizonaHome5,780 mi
Week 10West VirginiaHome5,780 mi
Week 11Oklahoma State324 mi6,429 mi
Week 12Baylor311 mi7,050 mi
Week 13TCUHome7,050 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Texas Tech Red Raiders Season Outlook

Unbeaten but far from flawless

Texas Tech sits at 6-0, yet the path has been bumpier than the record suggests. The Red Raiders failed to cover in their first three games and needed a late touchdown to escape Oregon State, a goal-line stand to hold off Houston, and a second-half surge to put away Sam Houston. The offense has been efficient but not explosive, and self-inflicted wounds (interceptions, stalled drives) have kept inferior opponents within reach. The market has consistently priced Texas Tech as a top-10 team, but the on-field product has yet to match that margin.

The run game is the engine

J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey form one of the most productive backfields in the Big 12. Williams ran for 116 yards and a score at Oregon State, then exploded for a career-high 165 yards and two long touchdowns against Arizona State. Dickey has been the short-yardage hammer, converting a critical fourth-and-1 against Houston and scoring twice versus Sam Houston. With quarterback Will Hammond still finding his footing as a full-time starter, the Red Raiders lean heavily on their ground attack to control games and set up play-action.

Takeaways mask defensive lapses

The defense has been a tale of two units: a ball-hawking secondary that has produced eight interceptions in the last two games (including four pick-sixes) and a pass defense that has been shredded by opposing quarterbacks. Oregon State's Braden Atkinson threw for 399 yards and Jesse Legree torched the Red Raiders for 240 receiving yards, while Houston hung 26 points in Lubbock. The front seven, rebuilt after losing multiple NFL draft picks, has struggled to generate consistent pressure without blitzing, leaving the young secondary exposed. The turnover spree is unsustainable, and better offenses will capitalize if the coverage issues persist.

Hammond's growth is the swing factor

Will Hammond has shown poise and efficiency, completing 18 of 26 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in the win over Arizona State, but he has yet to consistently stretch defenses vertically. His three-interception first half against Sam Houston highlighted lingering decision-making issues, and he has topped 260 passing yards only once since Week 1. The coaching staff has gradually expanded his role, and the bye week allowed for extra refinement. If Hammond can build on his composed second half against the Sun Devils, the offense could finally reach its ceiling.

The road ahead demands cleaner football

Texas Tech's remaining schedule features several potential traps, starting with a trip to Cincinnati. The Bearcats are 4-2 and capable of moving the ball, and the Red Raiders have yet to put together a complete four-quarter performance. With the Big 12 race tightening, the margin for error shrinks. The defense must tighten its coverage, the offense must finish drives, and the special teams (led by Stone Harrington's reliable leg) must continue to provide an edge. If the Red Raiders can eliminate the self-inflicted wounds that have plagued them, they have the talent to defend their conference title. If not, their unbeaten start could unravel quickly.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Texas Tech Red Raiders's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Texas Tech Red Raiders is 3-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.

What is Texas Tech Red Raiders's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Texas Tech Red Raiders holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +17.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Texas Tech Red Raiders's home field advantage rating?

Texas Tech Red Raiders's home field advantage rating is 2.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Texas Tech Red Raiders's 2026 win total?

Texas Tech Red Raiders's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 11.5 wins, priced at +180 over and -230 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Texas Tech Red Raiders travel in 2026?

Texas Tech Red Raiders travels 7,050 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 68th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 6-0 overall, 3-3 ATS, power rating +17.1 (2026 records).