Arkansas State Red Wolves is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -11.4. Arkansas State Red Wolves enters the season with a power rating of -11.4, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Arkansas State Red Wolves host West Georgia next in Week 2. In 2025, Arkansas State Red Wolves went 7-6 overall, 8-5 against the spread, and 5-8 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Arkansas State Red Wolves Power Rating of -11.4 is 11.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Arkansas State Red Wolves have logged 127 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,306 miles, ranking 113th heaviest in the FBS.
Trey Owens QB, Ethan Crawford QB, Drew Dickey QB, Jérémy St-Hilaire QB, Devin Spencer RB, Kenyon Clay RB, Chauncy Cobb WR, Hunter Summers WR, Jaylen Bonelli WR
Ryan Reese DL, Joe Drew LB, Nigel Nelson LB, AG McGhee S, Brandon Greil S, Brandon Barnes S, Five Hamilton S, Donquarius Parker EDGE
Clune Van Andel K, Daniel Vuckovic P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Week 6 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 5-3 | 2-6 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 6-3 | 2-7 |
| Week 11 | 5-5 | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Week 14 | 6-6 | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Postseason | 7-6 | 8-5 | 5-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -9.0 in the preseason and finished -11.4 after week 2, a move of -2.4 points. High -9.0 (the preseason), low -11.4 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.9 is regressed to +3.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.8 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 4 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Kennesaw State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Louisiana | 10 | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| South Alabama | 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Southern Miss | 4 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Georgia State | 6 | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| UL Monroe | 10 | 9-1 | 9-1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 6 | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Troy | 8 | 4-4 | 3-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: West Georgia, TCU, Louisiana Tech.
Week 04,306 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Memphis | 64 mi | 127 mi |
| Week 2 | West Georgia | Home | 127 mi |
| Week 3 | TCU | 440 mi | 1,007 mi |
| Week 4 | Kennesaw State | Home | 1,007 mi |
| Week 5 | Louisiana | 396 mi | 1,800 mi |
| Week 6 | South Alabama | Home | 1,800 mi |
| Week 7 | Southern Miss | 321 mi | 2,441 mi |
| Week 8 | Georgia State | Home | 2,441 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | UL Monroe | Home | 2,441 mi |
| Week 11 | Coastal Carolina | 677 mi | 3,795 mi |
| Week 12 | Louisiana Tech | 255 mi | 4,306 mi |
| Week 13 | Troy | Home | 4,306 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The Red Wolves entered 2026 with a four-man competition to replace Jaylen Raynor, and Trey Owens got the first crack. He threw for 325 yards and a touchdown against Memphis, but four interceptions proved costly in a 42-24 loss. Owens, a Texas transfer, is a pocket passer, while Ethan Crawford brings mobility and Drew Dickey and Jérémy St-Hilaire add depth from Vanderbilt. The team has yet to find a reliable successor to Raynor, who engineered six game-winning drives over two seasons. Until someone protects the ball and delivers in key moments, the quarterback spot remains the biggest question mark.
Devin Spencer and Kenyon Clay combined for over 1,000 rushing yards last season, and Clay proved his big-play ability by catching a 75-yard touchdown pass from Owens against Memphis. However, the ground game was not the primary driver in the opener, as the team fell behind and had to lean on the pass. Establishing the run behind a transfer-heavy offensive line will be crucial for controlling the clock and keeping the defense off the field. Clay and Spencer are proven assets, but they need more consistent opportunities and better blocking to make a difference.
Arkansas State led the Sun Belt with 39 sacks last season, but most of that production is gone. The front seven is breaking in six transfer tackles and five transfer ends, with only Ryan Reese returning as a regular contributor on the interior. Memphis exploited that inexperience, rushing for 335 yards and four touchdowns. Donquarius Parker, an edge rusher from NC Central, is expected to be an all-conference player, but he and the rest of the line need time to gel. The pass defense, which allowed 245 yards per game in 2025, also remains a vulnerability that opponents will continue to attack.
Arkansas State closed 2025 by winning six of their last eight games, including a bowl victory over Missouri State, and they hoped to carry that into 2026. But the season-opening loss to Memphis, where they never led after halftime, has put them in an early hole. The schedule is more manageable with only one Power 4 opponent, and they host West Georgia next, but the Red Wolves need to find answers quickly. With a fourth straight bowl appearance on the line, the next few weeks will reveal whether this team can regroup or if the early struggles are a sign of a longer rebuild.
Arkansas State Red Wolves is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Arkansas State Red Wolves holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -11.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Arkansas State Red Wolves's home field advantage rating is 3.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Arkansas State Red Wolves's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +125 over and -160 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Arkansas State Red Wolves travels 4,306 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 113th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Arkansas State Red Wolves: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -11.4 (2026 records).
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