Baylor Bears

By · Last updated

Baylor Bears is 4-3 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +8.3. Baylor Bears is covering at just 32% since the start of last season (6-13), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Baylor Bears head to UCF next in Week 9.

Conference: Big 12 Conference
Stadium: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Power Rating (most current): +8.3
HFA Rating:1.9 pts
2026 Win Total:6.5
2026 Record: 4-3
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 2-5

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Baylor Bears Power Rating of +8.3 is 8.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Baylor Bears have logged 4,302 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,600 miles, ranking 46th heaviest in the FBS.

Baylor Bears Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachDave Aranda
Tenure6 seasons
Record36-37
Offensive coordinatorJake Spavital
Defensive coordinatorJoe Klanderman

Offense

DJ Lagway QB, Louis Brown IV WR, Jadon Porter WR, Dre'lon Miller WR, Dawson Pendergrass RB

Defense

Hosea Wheeler DL, Jamaal Whyce Jr. EDGE, Ryan Davis EDGE, Garrick Ponder EDGE, Kedrick Walker LB, LeVar Thornton Jr. CB, Devin Turner S

Special teams

Palmer Williams P, Rhett Armstrong K

2025 Season in Review

Record5-7 ATS2-10 O/U6-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-11-0
Week 21-11-12-0
Week 32-11-22-1
Week 42-21-32-2
Week 53-21-43-2
Week 64-21-54-2
Week 84-31-65-2
Week 94-41-75-3
Week 105-42-75-4
Week 125-52-86-4
Week 135-62-96-5
Week 145-72-106-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +3.1 in the preseason and finished +8.3 after week 8, a move of +5.2 points. High +10.9 (week 6), low +3.1 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +3.1 to +8.3.

PreW8

Baylor Bears SP+ Profile

Offence+32.224 of 138higher is better
Defence+28.386 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.67 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.8 pts
HFA measured+0.7 pts
HFA applied+1.9 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +0.7 is regressed to +1.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Auburn10-10-1
Colorado10-10-1
Arizona State10-10-1
TCU102-84-6
Kansas88-08-0
UCF22-02-0
Iowa State94-55-4
BYU31-21-2
Texas Tech95-43-5-1
Houston31-21-2

No meeting on record since 2016: Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home35-2828-34-1 ATS · 63 games
On the road22-2924-24-3 ATS · 51 games
Neutral site5-66-5 ATS · 11 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

8,600 miles - ranked 46th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 8,600 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 08,600 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Auburn756 mi1,512 mi
Week 2Prairie View A&MHome1,512 mi
Week 3Louisiana TechHome1,512 mi
Week 4ColoradoHome1,512 mi
Week 5Arizona State874 mi3,260 mi
Week 6-Bye
Week 7TCUHome3,260 mi
Week 8Kansas521 mi4,302 mi
Week 9UCF974 mi6,251 mi
Week 10Iowa StateHome6,251 mi
Week 11BYU1,010 mi8,271 mi
Week 12Texas TechHome8,271 mi
Week 13Houston165 mi8,600 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Baylor Bears Season Outlook

Defense Carries the Load

Baylor's defense has been the backbone of the team's 4-2 start, allowing fewer than 20 points in every game. The Bears have not surrendered more than 19 points in a contest, a streak that dates back to last season and is their longest such stretch since 1966. First-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman's attacking scheme has generated consistent pressure, and the front seven transfers (Hosea Wheeler, Jamaal Whyce Jr., Ryan Davis, Garrick Ponder, Kedrick Walker) have made an immediate impact. The unit held Auburn to 17 points despite three Baylor giveaways, smothered Prairie View A&M to 110 total yards, limited Colorado to 13 points, and kept Arizona State to 19 in a road rout. The loss of defensive lineman Devonte Tezino to a season-ending leg injury in Week 2 was a blow, but the depth has held up. This defense will keep Baylor in every game and is the primary reason the Bears are above .500.

Lagway's Emergence and Offensive Upside

Quarterback DJ Lagway, a transfer from Florida, has shown flashes of the talent that made him a five-star recruit. After missing two games with an ankle injury, Lagway returned against Colorado and managed the game, then exploded at Arizona State for 306 passing yards and four touchdowns, adding an 11-yard rushing score. That performance showcased the downfield explosiveness that makes Baylor's offense dangerous. However, consistency remains an issue: Lagway completed just 22 of 53 passes for 256 yards with an interception in the loss to TCU. When he is on, the Bears can score quickly, but the offense has yet to put together a complete game against a quality opponent. The return of Lagway has raised the ceiling, but the week-to-week variance is still high.

Ground Game and Red-Zone Woes

Baylor's running game has been a weak link, averaging under four yards per carry in every game this season. The offensive line, which returned only one starter, has struggled to open holes consistently. Against Louisiana Tech, the Bears rushed for 164 yards but averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt; against Colorado, that number dropped to 3.3. Explosive runs from Ryelan Morris (63 yards) and Caden Knighten (75 yards) have masked the inconsistency, but the inability to sustain drives on the ground has contributed to red-zone inefficiency. Baylor has a pattern of settling for field goals instead of touchdowns, and kicker Rhett Armstrong has been busy; he made three field goals against Colorado and two against TCU. Improving the run game and finishing drives will be critical as the schedule toughens.

Special Teams Shine

Punter Palmer Williams remains a weapon, averaging 50.4 yards per punt against Colorado with four kicks over 50 yards and four inside the 20. His ability to flip field position has been crucial for a team that often plays in close games. Kicker Rhett Armstrong, a first-year starter, has been reliable, making a 54-yard field goal against Colorado and handling kickoff duties. The return game has been less impactful, but the specialists have provided a steady edge. In a season where margins are thin, Baylor's special teams have been a positive.

Schedule and Coaching Pressure

Head coach Dave Aranda entered the season on the hot seat, and the 4-2 start has eased some pressure, but the final stretch is daunting. Baylor's remaining schedule includes a closing three-game run at No. 8 BYU and No. 20 Houston, with a home finale against No. 10 Texas Tech in between. The Bears have already shown they can compete with ranked teams, but they will need to avoid the mistakes that cost them against TCU. Aranda's overall record at Baylor now sits at 40-39, and a strong finish could secure his job. The team's ability to handle adversity and close out games will determine whether this season is remembered as a step forward or another what-if.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Baylor Bears's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Baylor Bears is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Baylor Bears's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Baylor Bears holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +8.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Baylor Bears's home field advantage rating?

Baylor Bears's home field advantage rating is 1.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Baylor Bears's 2026 win total?

Baylor Bears's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +145 over and -190 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Baylor Bears travel in 2026?

Baylor Bears travels 8,600 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 46th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Baylor Bears: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating +8.3 (2026 records).