26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
Final
6
31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
38
Final
45
14
Final
42
24
Final
20
13
Final
6
20
Final
59
49
Final
51
23
Final
52
24
Final
37
38
Final
17
24
Final
25
28
Final
27
20
Final
35
10
Final
21
24
Final
27
56
Final
21
31
Final
39
24
Final
31
20
Final
31
49
Final
39
10
Final
13
23
Final
15
10
Final
28
17
Final
34
49
Final
27
17
Final
28
20
Final
24
21
Final
14
13
Final
28
31
Final
35
0
Final
26
31
Final
10
49
Final
56
20
Final
16
24
Final
57
32
Final
38
@
17
Final
20
7
Final
24
@
17
Final
34
@
@
@
@
Baylor Bears is 4-3 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +8.3. Baylor Bears is covering at just 32% since the start of last season (6-13), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Baylor Bears head to UCF next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Baylor Bears Power Rating of +8.3 is 8.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Baylor Bears have logged 4,302 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,600 miles, ranking 46th heaviest in the FBS.
DJ Lagway QB, Louis Brown IV WR, Jadon Porter WR, Dre'lon Miller WR, Dawson Pendergrass RB
Hosea Wheeler DL, Jamaal Whyce Jr. EDGE, Ryan Davis EDGE, Garrick Ponder EDGE, Kedrick Walker LB, LeVar Thornton Jr. CB, Devin Turner S
Palmer Williams P, Rhett Armstrong K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 4-2 | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 1-6 | 5-2 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 1-7 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 2-7 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 5-7 | 2-10 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +3.1 in the preseason and finished +8.3 after week 8, a move of +5.2 points. High +10.9 (week 6), low +3.1 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +0.7 is regressed to +1.9 before it is applied, a difference of 1.2 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Colorado | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Arizona State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| TCU | 10 | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Kansas | 8 | 8-0 | 8-0 |
| UCF | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Iowa State | 9 | 4-5 | 5-4 |
| BYU | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Texas Tech | 9 | 5-4 | 3-5-1 |
| Houston | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech.
Week 08,600 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Auburn | 756 mi | 1,512 mi |
| Week 2 | Prairie View A&M | Home | 1,512 mi |
| Week 3 | Louisiana Tech | Home | 1,512 mi |
| Week 4 | Colorado | Home | 1,512 mi |
| Week 5 | Arizona State | 874 mi | 3,260 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | TCU | Home | 3,260 mi |
| Week 8 | Kansas | 521 mi | 4,302 mi |
| Week 9 | UCF | 974 mi | 6,251 mi |
| Week 10 | Iowa State | Home | 6,251 mi |
| Week 11 | BYU | 1,010 mi | 8,271 mi |
| Week 12 | Texas Tech | Home | 8,271 mi |
| Week 13 | Houston | 165 mi | 8,600 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Baylor's defense has been the backbone of the team's 4-2 start, allowing fewer than 20 points in every game. The Bears have not surrendered more than 19 points in a contest, a streak that dates back to last season and is their longest such stretch since 1966. First-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman's attacking scheme has generated consistent pressure, and the front seven transfers (Hosea Wheeler, Jamaal Whyce Jr., Ryan Davis, Garrick Ponder, Kedrick Walker) have made an immediate impact. The unit held Auburn to 17 points despite three Baylor giveaways, smothered Prairie View A&M to 110 total yards, limited Colorado to 13 points, and kept Arizona State to 19 in a road rout. The loss of defensive lineman Devonte Tezino to a season-ending leg injury in Week 2 was a blow, but the depth has held up. This defense will keep Baylor in every game and is the primary reason the Bears are above .500.
Quarterback DJ Lagway, a transfer from Florida, has shown flashes of the talent that made him a five-star recruit. After missing two games with an ankle injury, Lagway returned against Colorado and managed the game, then exploded at Arizona State for 306 passing yards and four touchdowns, adding an 11-yard rushing score. That performance showcased the downfield explosiveness that makes Baylor's offense dangerous. However, consistency remains an issue: Lagway completed just 22 of 53 passes for 256 yards with an interception in the loss to TCU. When he is on, the Bears can score quickly, but the offense has yet to put together a complete game against a quality opponent. The return of Lagway has raised the ceiling, but the week-to-week variance is still high.
Baylor's running game has been a weak link, averaging under four yards per carry in every game this season. The offensive line, which returned only one starter, has struggled to open holes consistently. Against Louisiana Tech, the Bears rushed for 164 yards but averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt; against Colorado, that number dropped to 3.3. Explosive runs from Ryelan Morris (63 yards) and Caden Knighten (75 yards) have masked the inconsistency, but the inability to sustain drives on the ground has contributed to red-zone inefficiency. Baylor has a pattern of settling for field goals instead of touchdowns, and kicker Rhett Armstrong has been busy; he made three field goals against Colorado and two against TCU. Improving the run game and finishing drives will be critical as the schedule toughens.
Punter Palmer Williams remains a weapon, averaging 50.4 yards per punt against Colorado with four kicks over 50 yards and four inside the 20. His ability to flip field position has been crucial for a team that often plays in close games. Kicker Rhett Armstrong, a first-year starter, has been reliable, making a 54-yard field goal against Colorado and handling kickoff duties. The return game has been less impactful, but the specialists have provided a steady edge. In a season where margins are thin, Baylor's special teams have been a positive.
Head coach Dave Aranda entered the season on the hot seat, and the 4-2 start has eased some pressure, but the final stretch is daunting. Baylor's remaining schedule includes a closing three-game run at No. 8 BYU and No. 20 Houston, with a home finale against No. 10 Texas Tech in between. The Bears have already shown they can compete with ranked teams, but they will need to avoid the mistakes that cost them against TCU. Aranda's overall record at Baylor now sits at 40-39, and a strong finish could secure his job. The team's ability to handle adversity and close out games will determine whether this season is remembered as a step forward or another what-if.
Baylor Bears is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
Baylor Bears holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +8.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Baylor Bears's home field advantage rating is 1.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Baylor Bears's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at +145 over and -190 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Baylor Bears travels 8,600 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 46th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Baylor Bears: 4-3 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating +8.3 (2026 records).