Vanderbilt Commodores is 3-4 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -0.4. Vanderbilt Commodores is covering the spread at 65% since the start of last season (13-7), well above the FBS average. The Vanderbilt Commodores head to Kentucky next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Vanderbilt Commodores Power Rating of -0.4 is 0.4 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Vanderbilt Commodores have logged 1,004 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 2,835 miles, ranking 135th heaviest in the FBS.
Jared Curtis QB, Junior Sherrill WR, Ja'Cory Thomas WR, Cole Adams WR, Cole Spence TE, Jayvontay Conner TE
Miles Capers EDGE, Brian Allen Jr. EDGE, Bryan Longwell LB, Jordan Matthews CB, Cayden Daniels CB, Martel Hight CB, Ricardo Jones S
Tyler Ebel P, Brock Taylor K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 7-2 | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| Week 11 | 8-2 | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 9-2 | 9-2 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 10-2 | 10-2 | 8-4 |
| Postseason | 10-3 | 10-3 | 9-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +12.1 in the preseason and finished -0.4 after week 8, a move of -12.4 points. High +12.1 (week 1), low -0.4 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -1.2 is regressed to +1.5 before it is applied, a difference of 2.7 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Auburn | 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Georgia | 7 | 1-6 | 2-5 |
| Ole Miss | 8 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Arkansas | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Kentucky | 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Mississippi State | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Alabama | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Florida | 8 | 1-7 | 3-5 |
| Tennessee | 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Austin Peay, Delaware.
Week 02,835 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Austin Peay | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Delaware | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | NC State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 4 | Auburn | 255 mi | 511 mi |
| Week 5 | Georgia | 247 mi | 1,004 mi |
| Week 6 | Ole Miss | Home | 1,004 mi |
| Week 7 | Arkansas | Home | 1,004 mi |
| Week 8 | Kentucky | 182 mi | 1,367 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Mississippi State | 217 mi | 1,801 mi |
| Week 11 | Alabama | Home | 1,801 mi |
| Week 12 | Florida | 517 mi | 2,835 mi |
| Week 13 | Tennessee | Home | 2,835 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Vanderbilt's season has been defined by the transition from Diego Pavia to true freshman Jared Curtis. Curtis, the five-star flip from Georgia, has shown flashes of brilliance (222 passing yards vs Ole Miss, 274 vs Arkansas) but also growing pains (two interceptions and a fumble vs Ole Miss). The quarterback situation has been fluid: Blaze Berlowitz started the first two games and the Georgia game, while Curtis started against Ole Miss and Arkansas. The rotation has produced slow starts and inconsistent rhythm, but Curtis's mobility (46 rushing yards on 18 carries at Auburn, two rushing TDs vs Delaware) adds a dimension. His development is the biggest swing factor for the rest of the season.
A unit that was expected to be improved has been gashed on the ground in SEC play. After holding Delaware to negative rushing yards, Vanderbilt allowed 196 yards rushing to Ole Miss and 170 to Arkansas. The pass rush that erupted for six sacks against Delaware has vanished against Power 4 fronts, managing little pressure against Auburn, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Edge rushers Miles Capers and Brian Allen Jr. combined for just five sacks in 2025 and have not consistently disrupted opposing quarterbacks. The secondary, led by Jordan Matthews, Cayden Daniels, and Martel Hight, has been tested and has had mixed results. If the Commodores want to compete in the SEC, stopping the run and generating pressure are non-negotiable.
Vanderbilt's special teams have been among the nation's best for two straight years, and that has continued. Kicker Brock Taylor has range beyond 60 yards and has hit key field goals, including a 45-yarder against Ole Miss. The Commodores have blocked a kick and returned it for a touchdown in back-to-back games (Martel Hight's blocked extra point return vs Austin Peay, Austin Howard's blocked punt recovery vs Delaware). Punter Tyler Ebel, a transfer from South Dakota, has been solid, though his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown against Delaware. In close games, the hidden-yardage edge from special teams is a real advantage.
Discipline has been a major issue. Vanderbilt committed 11 penalties for 92 yards against Ole Miss, 13 for 116 against NC State, and nine for 73 against Austin Peay. Turnovers have also been costly: four against Ole Miss led to 24 points for the Rebels, and two interceptions against Arkansas sealed the loss. The pattern of self-inflicted mistakes has undermined the team's competitiveness, especially in SEC play. Cleaning up penalties and protecting the ball is essential for any turnaround.
At 3-4 and 0-3 in the SEC, Vanderbilt faces a challenging remaining schedule. The Commodores have yet to win a conference game and have struggled against ranked opponents. However, they have shown resilience, nearly upsetting Auburn on the road (15-21) and keeping Georgia within reach for three quarters. The offense has moved the ball at times, and the defense has flashed potential. To reach a bowl game, Vanderbilt must find consistency, likely leaning on Curtis's growth and a renewed commitment to stopping the run. The upcoming game at Kentucky (6-1) will be another tough test, but the season is not lost if the Commodores can correct their mistakes.
Vanderbilt Commodores is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
Vanderbilt Commodores holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -0.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Vanderbilt Commodores's home field advantage rating is 1.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Vanderbilt Commodores's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -160 over and +125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Vanderbilt Commodores travels 2,835 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 135th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 3-4 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -0.4 (2026 records).
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