Vanderbilt Commodores is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +12.1. Vanderbilt Commodores enters the season with a power rating of +12.1, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Vanderbilt Commodores host Delaware next in Week 2. In 2025, Vanderbilt Commodores went 10-3 overall, 10-3 against the spread, and 9-4 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Vanderbilt Commodores Power Rating of +12.1 is 12.1 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Vanderbilt Commodores have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 2,835 miles, ranking 135th heaviest in the FBS.
Jared Curtis QB, Junior Sherrill WR, Ja'Cory Thomas WR, Cole Adams WR, Cole Spence TE, Jayvontay Conner TE
Miles Capers EDGE, Brian Allen Jr. EDGE, Bryan Longwell LB, Jordan Matthews CB, Cayden Daniels CB, Martel Hight CB, Ricardo Jones S
Tyler Ebel P, Brock Taylor K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 4-0 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 7-2 | 7-2 | 5-4 |
| Week 11 | 8-2 | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 9-2 | 9-2 | 7-4 |
| Week 14 | 10-2 | 10-2 | 8-4 |
| Postseason | 10-3 | 10-3 | 9-4 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +15.7 in the preseason and finished +18.5 after the postseason, a move of +2.8 points. High +20.6 (week 15), low +13.2 (week 0).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -1.2 is regressed to +1.5 before it is applied, a difference of 2.7 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Auburn | 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Georgia | 7 | 1-6 | 2-5 |
| Ole Miss | 8 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Arkansas | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Kentucky | 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Mississippi State | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Alabama | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Florida | 8 | 1-7 | 3-5 |
| Tennessee | 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Austin Peay, Delaware.
Week 02,835 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Austin Peay | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Delaware | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | NC State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 4 | Auburn | 255 mi | 511 mi |
| Week 5 | Georgia | 247 mi | 1,004 mi |
| Week 6 | Ole Miss | Home | 1,004 mi |
| Week 7 | Arkansas | Home | 1,004 mi |
| Week 8 | Kentucky | 182 mi | 1,367 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Mississippi State | 217 mi | 1,801 mi |
| Week 11 | Alabama | Home | 1,801 mi |
| Week 12 | Florida | 517 mi | 2,835 mi |
| Week 13 | Tennessee | Home | 2,835 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
The biggest storyline is true freshman Jared Curtis taking over at quarterback, a 5-star recruit who flipped from Georgia. He has no college experience, and the offense will lean on him early. The supporting cast includes wide receiver Junior Sherrill, who had 784 yards and seven touchdowns last season, plus transfers Ja'Cory Thomas and Cole Adams. The offensive line lost four starters, so protecting Curtis will be critical. If he plays like Trevor Lawrence did as a freshman, the ceiling rises, but growing pains are likely.
Vanderbilt's defense returns seven full-time Power 4 starters, with the secondary looking like a strength. Cornerbacks Jordan Matthews and Cayden Daniels are emerging, and Martel Hight returns to defense full-time after playing wideout in 2025. Clemson transfer Ricardo Jones, who tied for the ACC lead with six interceptions last year, should bolster the back end. The pass defense improved last season, and this group could take another step forward. The pass rush remains a concern, as projected starting edges Miles Capers and Brian Allen Jr. combined for just five sacks in 2025.
The defensive line has a deep rotation at tackle, and the linebacker corps is experienced, led by Bryan Longwell. This should make for a competitive run defense, which is important given the questions at edge rusher. If the front seven can hold up against the run, it will help keep games close and reduce pressure on the freshman quarterback.
Vanderbilt's special teams have ranked among the nation's best in SP+ over the past two years, and that should continue. Punter Tyler Ebel, a transfer from FCS South Dakota, adds depth, while kicker Brock Taylor is one of college football's top placekickers with range beyond 60 yards. This unit can provide field position advantages and scoring reliability, which will be valuable in tight SEC games.
Life without Diego Pavia will be different, and the team likely won't match last year's level immediately. However, the injection of belief and swag from Pavia's era can carry over, and the roster has more talent than in past years. The schedule opens with a home game against Austin Peay, a favorable start, but the SEC slate will test the young quarterback and rebuilt offensive line. Expect Vanderbilt to be competitive and in the middle of the pack, with the defense and special teams keeping them in games while the offense finds its footing.
Vanderbilt Commodores is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Vanderbilt Commodores holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +12.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Vanderbilt Commodores's home field advantage rating is 1.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Vanderbilt Commodores's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -160 over and +125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Vanderbilt Commodores travels 2,835 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 135th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +12.1 (2026 records).
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