NC State Wolfpack is 3-3 on the season, 2-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +1.4. NC State Wolfpack's games are going over the total at 67% this season (4-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The NC State Wolfpack head to Stanford next in Week 8.
In Week 6 of 2026 the NC State Wolfpack Power Rating of +1.4 is 1.4 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. NC State Wolfpack have logged 1,216 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,030 miles, ranking 69th heaviest in the FBS.
CJ Bailey QB, Keenan Jackson WR, Davion Dozier WR, Chance Robinson WR, Joshisa Trader WR, Jayden Scott RB
Josiah Victor DL, Popo Aguirre LB, Da'Karri Nelson LB, Harvey Dyson EDGE, Brian Nelson II CB, Ondre Evans CB, King Mack S, Asaad Brown Jr. S, Tristan Teasdell S, Ronnie Royal III S
Kanoah Vinesett K, Jackson Waller P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Week 7 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 6-5 | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Postseason | 8-5 | 7-6 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +6.5 in the preseason and finished +1.4 after week 8, a move of -5.1 points. High +6.5 (the preseason), low +1.4 (week 8).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.8 is regressed to +3.4 before it is applied, a difference of 1.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Louisville | 7 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Wake Forest | 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Stanford | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| California | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Duke | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Syracuse | 8 | 5-3 | 3-5 |
| Florida State | 8 | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| North Carolina | 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Richmond, App State.
Week 07,030 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Virginia | 154 mi | 308 mi |
| Week 1 | - | Bye | |
| Week 2 | Richmond | Home | 308 mi |
| Week 3 | Vanderbilt | 454 mi | 1,216 mi |
| Week 4 | App State | Home | 1,216 mi |
| Week 5 | Louisville | Home | 1,216 mi |
| Week 6 | Wake Forest | Home | 1,216 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Stanford | 2,396 mi | 6,008 mi |
| Week 9 | California | Home | 6,008 mi |
| Week 10 | Duke | Home | 6,008 mi |
| Week 11 | Syracuse | Home | 6,008 mi |
| Week 12 | Florida State | 491 mi | 6,990 mi |
| Week 13 | North Carolina | 20 mi | 7,030 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
NC State sits at 3-3 after a rollercoaster first half. The Wolfpack opened with a 34-8 loss at Virginia, then responded with a 73-0 home rout of Richmond, lost a heartbreaker at Vanderbilt on a last-second fumble, beat App State 41-31, edged Louisville 31-28, and fell to Wake Forest 14-38. The team has shown it can score in bunches (73 points vs Richmond, 41 vs App State, 31 vs Louisville) but has also been blown out twice (Virginia, Wake Forest) and lost a game it led by 17 in the second half. Consistency is the biggest issue.
Quarterback CJ Bailey has had a mercurial season. He was stifled by Virginia (12 of 23, 84 yards, INT, fumble), bounced back against Richmond (13 of 17, 281 yards, TD), and then delivered a career-high 373 passing yards and two touchdowns in the win over Louisville. However, he struggled again in the loss to Wake Forest, and his fumble at Vanderbilt cost the team a road win. Bailey's ability to protect the ball and perform consistently against Power Four defenses will determine NC State's ceiling. The rebuilt receiving corps, led by Keenan Jackson and transfers like Joshisa Trader, has shown flashes but remains a work in progress.
The Wolfpack's run defense has been a liability all season. Virginia gashed them for 258 yards in the opener, and Vanderbilt and Wake Forest also found success on the ground. The rebuilt linebacker corps (Popo Aguirre, Da'Karri Nelson) and defensive line have struggled to stop committed Power Four rushing attacks. While the pass rush, led by Harvey Dyson, has generated pressure at times, it hasn't been enough to mask the run-defense issues. Until NC State can slow opposing running games, it will be vulnerable to clock-controlling drives that keep Bailey off the field.
NC State is 3-0 at home this season, including the record-setting 73-0 win over Richmond and solid victories over App State and Louisville. Carter-Finley Stadium has provided a significant edge, and the Wolfpack have historically been strong at home under Dave Doeren. However, they are 0-3 on the road (Virginia, Vanderbilt, and a neutral-site loss to Wake Forest was at home, so actually 0-2 on the road). The upcoming trip to Stanford will be a test of whether they can carry their home form on the road. The 2,396-mile journey is the longest of the season, and the team will need to handle travel and a different environment.
The rest of the season hinges on NC State's ability to run the ball effectively (Duke Scott has been solid with 148 yards vs App State and 128 vs Richmond) and for Bailey to avoid turnovers. The defense must tighten up against the run and generate more takeaways. With a 3-3 record and a tough ACC schedule ahead, the Wolfpack need to string together wins to become bowl-eligible and compete in the conference. The upcoming game at Stanford (3-4) is a winnable one, but NC State cannot afford a letdown. The team's mental toughness, especially after the Vanderbilt collapse and the Wake Forest loss, will be crucial. If Bailey and the offense can find rhythm and the defense can get stops, NC State can still have a successful season.
NC State Wolfpack is 2-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.
NC State Wolfpack holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +1.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
NC State Wolfpack's home field advantage rating is 3.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
NC State Wolfpack's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +105 over and -135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
NC State Wolfpack travels 7,030 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 69th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
NC State Wolfpack: 3-3 overall, 2-4 ATS, power rating +1.4 (2026 records).
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