NC State Wolfpack is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +2.5. NC State Wolfpack enters the season with a power rating of +2.5, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The NC State Wolfpack host Richmond next in Week 2. In 2025, NC State Wolfpack went 8-5 overall, 7-6 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.
In Week 0 of 2026 the NC State Wolfpack Power Rating of +2.5 is 2.5 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. NC State Wolfpack have logged 308 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 7,030 miles, ranking 69th heaviest in the FBS.
CJ Bailey QB, Keenan Jackson WR, Davion Dozier WR, Chance Robinson WR, Joshisa Trader WR, Jayden Scott RB
Josiah Victor DL, Popo Aguirre LB, Da'Karri Nelson LB, Harvey Dyson EDGE, Brian Nelson II CB, Ondre Evans CB, King Mack S, Asaad Brown Jr. S, Tristan Teasdell S, Ronnie Royal III S
Kanoah Vinesett K, Jackson Waller P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Week 6 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Week 7 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Week 13 | 6-5 | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Postseason | 8-5 | 7-6 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +4.0 in the preseason and finished +8.3 after the postseason, a move of +4.3 points. High +9.1 (week 15), low +2.5 (week 1).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +4.8 is regressed to +3.4 before it is applied, a difference of 1.4 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 4 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Louisville | 7 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Wake Forest | 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Stanford | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| California | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Duke | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Syracuse | 8 | 5-3 | 3-5 |
| Florida State | 8 | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| North Carolina | 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Richmond, App State.
Week 07,030 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Virginia | 154 mi | 308 mi |
| Week 1 | - | Bye | |
| Week 2 | Richmond | Home | 308 mi |
| Week 3 | Vanderbilt | 454 mi | 1,216 mi |
| Week 4 | App State | Home | 1,216 mi |
| Week 5 | Louisville | Home | 1,216 mi |
| Week 6 | Wake Forest | Home | 1,216 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Stanford | 2,396 mi | 6,008 mi |
| Week 9 | California | Home | 6,008 mi |
| Week 10 | Duke | Home | 6,008 mi |
| Week 11 | Syracuse | Home | 6,008 mi |
| Week 12 | Florida State | 491 mi | 6,990 mi |
| Week 13 | North Carolina | 20 mi | 7,030 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
CJ Bailey enters his third season as the starting quarterback, coming off a sophomore year where he threw for 3,105 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions on a 68.8% completion rate. With offensive coordinator Kurt Roper returning for a second year, the offense aims to build on its 30.2 points per game from last season. Bailey's development will be crucial, especially with a largely new supporting cast around him.
The Wolfpack lost their top rusher and five leading pass-catchers from last season, forcing a significant overhaul on offense. Junior Keenan Jackson returns as the most experienced receiver, having caught 28 passes for 281 yards and two scores. Transfers Davion Dozier (Appalachian State), Chance Robinson, and Joshisa Trader (both from Miami) are expected to contribute immediately, while Jayden Scott takes over as the starting running back.
Defensive coordinator DJ Eliot's pressure-based scheme improved as last season progressed, and the unit returns key pieces like nose tackle Josiah Victor and cornerback Brian Nelson II. Transfers Popo Aguirre (Miami) and Da'Karri Nelson (Penn State) bolster the linebacker corps, while Tulane transfer Harvey Dyson, who led the AAC with eight sacks, adds a potent pass rush. The secondary has depth with King Mack, Asaad Brown Jr., Tristan Teasdell, and Ronnie Royal III competing for starting roles.
Kicker Kanoah Vinesett returns after a strong season, converting 5-of-6 field goals with a long of 51 yards and 48-of-49 extra points. The punting duties will be handled by transfer Jackson Waller from Arkansas State, who averaged 41.3 yards per punt and placed 19 of 59 punts inside the 20-yard line last year. These reliable specialists provide a solid foundation for field position battles.
With head coach Dave Doeren in his 13th year and a 95-70 record at the school, this season is pivotal for the program's trajectory. The offense must integrate new playmakers, while the defense looks to build on its late-season momentum. The Wolfpack face a challenging schedule, including a Week 0 road game at Virginia, and will need to prove they can compete at a high level in the ACC, especially given concerns about NIL resources raised by opposing coaches.
NC State Wolfpack is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
NC State Wolfpack holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +2.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
NC State Wolfpack's home field advantage rating is 3.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
NC State Wolfpack's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at +105 over and -135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
NC State Wolfpack travels 7,030 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 69th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
NC State Wolfpack: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +2.5 (2026 records).
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