Auburn Tigers is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +9.3. Auburn Tigers enters the season with a power rating of +9.3, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Auburn Tigers host Southern Miss next in Week 2. In 2025, Auburn Tigers went 5-7 overall, 4-7-1 against the spread, and 4-8 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Auburn Tigers Power Rating of +9.3 is 9.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Auburn Tigers have logged 203 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 2,187 miles, ranking 138th heaviest in the FBS.
Byrum Brown QB, Cole Best OL, Chas Nimrod WR, Keshaun Singleton WR, Jeremiah Koger WR, Jeremiah Cobb RB, Bryson Washington RB, Jake Johnson TE, Jonathan Echols TE, Jo Simmons OL
Xavier Atkins LB, Elijah Melendez LB, Eric Winters S, Sylvester Smith S, AnQuon Fegans S, Andre Jordan Jr. CB, Cody Sigler DL, Da'Shawn Womack DL, Nate Johnson DL, Saint Farrior DL, Walter Mathis Jr. DL, Jourdin Crawford DL, Jared Smith DL, Darrion Smith DL, Rayshawn Pleasant CB
Alex McPherson K, Hudson Kaak P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 |
| Week 10 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 |
| Week 11 | 4-6 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 5-7 | 4-7-1 | 4-8 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +10.9 in the preseason and finished +9.3 after week 2, a move of -1.6 points. High +11.5 (week 1), low +9.3 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -0.8 is regressed to +1.3 before it is applied, a difference of 2.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Southern Miss | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Florida | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 4 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Georgia | 11 | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| LSU | 8 | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Ole Miss | 8 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Arkansas | 10 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Mississippi State | 8 | 5-3 | 6-2 |
| Samford | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Alabama | 10 | 2-8 | 5-4-1 |
Week 02,187 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Baylor | 101 mi | 203 mi |
| Week 2 | Southern Miss | Home | 203 mi |
| Week 3 | Florida | Home | 203 mi |
| Week 4 | Vanderbilt | Home | 203 mi |
| Week 5 | Tennessee | 248 mi | 698 mi |
| Week 6 | - | Bye | |
| Week 7 | Georgia | 154 mi | 1,006 mi |
| Week 8 | LSU | Home | 1,006 mi |
| Week 9 | Ole Miss | 263 mi | 1,532 mi |
| Week 10 | Arkansas | Home | 1,532 mi |
| Week 11 | Mississippi State | 201 mi | 1,933 mi |
| Week 12 | Samford | Home | 1,933 mi |
| Week 13 | Alabama | 127 mi | 2,187 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Alex Golesh's first game as Auburn's head coach ended in a 17-16 nail-biter over Baylor, a game that showcased both the promise and the rough edges of this rebuilt roster. The Tigers survived thanks to Eric Winters' goal-line stop on a two-point conversion with nine seconds left, preserving the win after Baylor's late touchdown. Auburn's defense forced five Baylor turnovers, but the offense managed only three points off those gifts, a sign of the inconsistency that plagued the day. Still, finding a way to win in Week 1, even when not playing clean, is a positive step for a program trying to shed years of offensive struggles.
Quarterback Byrum Brown, the centerpiece of Golesh's transfer haul from South Florida, showed why he was brought in to spark the offense. He completed 26 of 35 passes for 259 yards and added 27 rushing yards, including the go-ahead 11-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter. But he also threw three interceptions, and Golesh took the blame, saying the coaching staff tried to force the ball downfield. Brown's dual-threat ability is real, but his decision-making under pressure will need to improve as Auburn faces stiffer SEC competition. The good news is that his command of the offense, a system he knows well from USF, was evident in the game-winning drive.
Auburn's defense, coordinated by DJ Durkin, lived up to its billing as the team's strength. The unit forced a fumble, an interception, and repeatedly stalled Baylor drives, holding the Bears to 16 points despite their 333 passing yards. Eric Winters was the hero, but the safety trio of Winters, Sylvester Smith, and AnQuon Fegans was active throughout. The defensive line, bolstered by transfers like Cody Sigler and Da'Shawn Womack, applied consistent pressure. However, the secondary gave up big plays, including a 154-yard receiving day to Baylor's Gavin Freeman, and the defense was on the field too long because the offense kept stalling. That is a formula that could backfire against more explosive SEC offenses.
The rebuilt offensive line, anchored by Cole Best and Jo Simmons, held up reasonably well in pass protection, allowing Brown time to complete 74% of his passes. But the run game was not a factor, with Jeremiah Cobb's 15-yard touchdown run being the only highlight. Auburn managed just 17 points, and the offense went three-and-out multiple times after Baylor turnovers. The receiving corps, featuring USF imports Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton, did not have a breakout game, and the tight end rotation of Jake Johnson and Jonathan Echols was quiet. Golesh's offense is designed to be efficient and explosive, but it is not there yet. The pieces are in place, but cohesion will take time.
Auburn's schedule offers a chance to build confidence before conference play. The Tigers host Southern Miss in Week 2, a game where they are heavy favorites, and the market gives them a 98% win probability. This is an opportunity to clean up the turnovers, get the run game going, and let Brown and the receivers develop rhythm. The real test will come when Auburn faces SEC defenses that can pressure the quarterback and exploit the secondary's vulnerabilities. If the offense can cut down on mistakes and the defense continues to force turnovers, Auburn could surprise some teams. But if the red-zone inefficiency and turnover issues persist, the Tigers will struggle to win close games against better opponents.
Auburn Tigers is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Auburn Tigers holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +9.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Auburn Tigers's home field advantage rating is 1.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Auburn Tigers's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 6.5 wins, priced at -130 over and +100 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Auburn Tigers travels 2,187 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 138th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Auburn Tigers: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating +9.3 (2026 records).