Alabama Crimson Tide

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Alabama Crimson Tide is 6-2 on the season, 4-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +22.5. Alabama Crimson Tide holds a power rating of +22.5, ranking them among the stronger teams in the FBS and suggesting consistent line value as a favourite. The Alabama Crimson Tide head to LSU next in Week 10.

Conference: Southeastern Conference
Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Power Rating (most current): +22.5
HFA Rating:3.5 pts
2026 Win Total:8.5
2026 Record: 6-2
2026 ATS: 4-4
2026 O/U: 6-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Alabama Crimson Tide Power Rating of +22.5 is 22.5 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Alabama Crimson Tide have logged 1,455 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 2,444 miles, ranking 137th heaviest in the FBS.

Alabama Crimson Tide Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachKalen DeBoer
Tenure2 seasons
Record at school20-8
Career record124-20 (11 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorRyan Grubb
Defensive coordinatorKane Wommack

Offense

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, Austin Mack QB, Keelon Russell QB, Michael Carroll OL, Daniel Hill RB, EJ Crowell RB

Defense

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE, Zabien Brown CB, Terrance Green DL, Devan Thompkins DL, Caleb Woodson LB, Bray Hubbard S, Keon Sabb S

Special teams

Conor Talty K, Lorcan Quinn K, Alex Asparuhov P, Adam Watford P

2025 Season in Review

Record11-4 ATS8-5-2 O/U5-10
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-10-1
Week 21-11-11-1
Week 32-12-12-1
Week 53-13-12-2
Week 64-14-12-3
Week 75-14-1-13-3
Week 86-15-1-13-4
Week 97-15-2-14-4
Week 118-16-2-14-5
Week 128-26-3-14-6
Week 139-27-3-14-7
Week 1410-27-3-24-8
Week 1510-37-4-24-9
Postseason11-48-5-25-10

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +19.2 in the preseason and finished +22.5 after week 8, a move of +3.3 points. High +27.3 (week 6), low +19.2 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +19.2 to +22.5.

PreW8

Alabama Crimson Tide SP+ Profile

Offence+31.330 of 138higher is better
Defence+12.64 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4101 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.8 pts
HFA measured+6.3 pts
HFA applied+3.5 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +6.3 is regressed to +3.5 before it is applied, a difference of 2.7 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Kentucky33-02-1
Florida State21-11-1
South Carolina33-00-3
Mississippi State88-07-1
Georgia97-25-4
Tennessee108-27-3
Texas A&M87-14-4
LSU108-26-4
Vanderbilt43-13-1
Chattanooga22-01-1
Auburn108-24-5-1

No meeting on record since 2016: East Carolina.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home65-344-24 ATS · 68 games
On the road37-921-23-2 ATS · 46 games
Neutral site19-714-12 ATS · 26 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

2,444 miles - ranked 137th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 2,444 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 02,444 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1East CarolinaHome0 mi
Week 2Kentucky374 mi747 mi
Week 3Florida StateHome747 mi
Week 4South CarolinaHome747 mi
Week 5Mississippi State74 mi895 mi
Week 6GeorgiaHome895 mi
Week 7Tennessee280 mi1,455 mi
Week 8Texas A&MHome1,455 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10LSU288 mi2,031 mi
Week 11Vanderbilt207 mi2,444 mi
Week 12ChattanoogaHome2,444 mi
Week 13AuburnHome2,444 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Alabama Crimson Tide Season Outlook

Keelon Russell has transformed the offense, but ball security remains a concern

Russell won the starting job over Austin Mack in camp and has been dynamic, accounting for 335 yards and a score in his debut, then throwing for 365 yards and four touchdowns against South Carolina. He has five 300-yard passing games and is a true dual-threat, but his turnover habit has been costly: three turnovers at Kentucky (two interceptions, one fumble) and two interceptions plus a lost fumble at Tennessee. In the two losses, those giveaways directly led to points and kept inferior opponents close early. If Russell cleans this up, the offense can be elite; if not, it will cap the Tide's ceiling.

The run game is improved but still prone to disappearing acts

After averaging 3.4 yards per carry in 2025, Alabama rushed for 227 yards in the opener and 155 at Kentucky, but the consistency has been lacking. Against Florida State, the Tide managed just 27 rushing yards before halftime and finished with 54 at Tennessee. Daniel Hill has emerged as the lead back with a 104-yard game at Kentucky, and freshman EJ Crowell has flashed, but the offensive line, anchored by Michael Carroll and supplemented by portal additions, has yet to prove it can impose its will against quality fronts. When the run game stalls, the offense becomes one-dimensional and vulnerable to the kind of second-half lulls that have plagued them.

The defense is dominant against the run but susceptible to explosive plays

Alabama held East Carolina to 2 rushing yards on 22 carries, the fewest against an FBS opponent since 2021, and limited Kentucky to 62 second-half yards. The portal-built front of Terrance Green and Devan Thompkins plus edge rusher Yhonzae Pierre has answered physicality questions. However, the secondary, despite returning Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb, and Zabien Brown, has been burned by mobile quarterbacks and big plays: Florida State had 13 plays of 15+ yards, and Georgia's Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards. The pass rush has been inconsistent, and the back seven must tighten up against elite passing attacks.

Slow starts have been a recurring problem, especially on the road

Alabama has yet to put together a complete four-quarter performance against a quality opponent. They trailed 17-13 at Kentucky at halftime, needed a 15-point comeback against Florida State, and spotted Georgia a halftime lead. Against Tennessee, they managed just 93 first-half yards and went 0-for-7 on third down. The pattern is clear: the Tide often sleepwalks through the first 30 minutes, relying on second-half surges. Against elite teams, that approach is unsustainable. Fixing the early-game execution and intensity is critical for the stretch run.

The schedule offers a chance to rebound, but margin for error is slim

At 5-2 with losses to Georgia and Tennessee, Alabama still controls its destiny in the SEC race. The remaining schedule includes home games against Texas A&M and others, plus a trip to Auburn. The offense must protect the ball, the run game must be more consistent, and the defense must limit explosives. If Russell continues his development and the supporting cast steps up, the Tide can finish strong and position themselves for a New Year's Six bowl. But the two-game losing streak exposed vulnerabilities that opponents will exploit. The next few weeks will reveal whether this team can mature into a contender or remain a talented but flawed squad.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Alabama Crimson Tide's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Alabama Crimson Tide is 4-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 50% of games.

What is Alabama Crimson Tide's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Alabama Crimson Tide holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +22.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Alabama Crimson Tide's home field advantage rating?

Alabama Crimson Tide's home field advantage rating is 3.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Alabama Crimson Tide's 2026 win total?

Alabama Crimson Tide's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -130 over and +100 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Alabama Crimson Tide travel in 2026?

Alabama Crimson Tide travels 2,444 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 137th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Alabama Crimson Tide: 6-2 overall, 4-4 ATS, power rating +22.5 (2026 records).