Toledo Rockets

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Toledo Rockets is 0-1 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -4.3. Toledo Rockets enters the season with a power rating of -4.3, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Toledo Rockets host Central Connecticut next in Week 2. In 2025, Toledo Rockets went 8-5 overall, 9-4 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Power Rating (most current): -4.3
HFA Rating:2.9 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 0-1
2026 ATS: 1-0
2026 O/U: 1-0

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Toledo Rockets Power Rating of -4.3 is 4.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Toledo Rockets have logged 173 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,886 miles, ranking 108th heaviest in the FBS.

Toledo Rockets Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachMike Jacobs
TenureFirst season
Career record94-23 (10 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorCris Reisert
Defensive coordinatorJahmal Brown

Offense

John Alan Richter QB, CJ Miller RB, Connor Walendzak RB, Stephen Gales OL, Kalvin Gilbert Jr. WR, Anthony Simpson WR, Adjatay Dabbs WR, Bryson Hammer WR

Defense

Andrew Zock EDGE, Kari Jackson LB, Julian Fox LB, Isaac Prince LB, Armorion Smith S, Cam Jones CB, Mo Conteh CB

Special teams

Reice Griffith K, Emilio Duran P

2025 Season in Review

Record8-5 ATS9-4 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-11-00-1
Week 21-12-01-1
Week 32-13-02-1
Week 42-23-12-2
Week 53-24-12-3
Week 73-34-23-3
Week 84-35-24-3
Week 94-45-34-4
Week 115-46-35-4
Week 126-47-35-5
Week 137-47-46-5
Week 148-48-46-6
Postseason8-59-47-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -1.6 in the preseason and finished -4.3 after week 2, a move of -2.6 points. High -1.6 (the preseason), low -4.3 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from -1.6 to -4.3.

PreW2

Toledo Rockets SP+ Profile

Offence+16.7121 of 138higher is better
Defence+27.984 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4108 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±5.8 pts
HFA measured+3.8 pts
HFA applied+2.9 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
San Diego State10-10-1
Ball State97-23-6
Buffalo51-41-4
Eastern Michigan97-23-6
Western Michigan95-44-5
Massachusetts44-02-2
Bowling Green106-43-7
Ohio52-32-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Michigan State, Central Connecticut, Temple, Sacramento State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home47-1131-27 ATS · 58 games
On the road28-2725-30 ATS · 55 games
Neutral site5-74-8 ATS · 12 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

4,886 miles - ranked 108th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 4,886 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 04,886 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Michigan State86 mi173 mi
Week 2Central ConnecticutHome173 mi
Week 3TempleHome173 mi
Week 4San Diego StateHome173 mi
Week 5Ball State137 mi447 mi
Week 6BuffaloHome447 mi
Week 7Eastern Michigan41 mi530 mi
Week 8Western MichiganHome530 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Sacramento State1,998 mi4,526 mi
Week 11MassachusettsHome4,526 mi
Week 12Bowling GreenHome4,526 mi
Week 13Ohio180 mi4,886 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Toledo Rockets Season Outlook

A New Era Under Mike Jacobs

Toledo enters 2026 with a largely rebuilt roster under first-year head coach Mike Jacobs, who brought 14 players with him from FCS Mercer. The Rockets lost many key contributors from last year's squad, including potential first-round safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and tight end CC Ezirim, who transferred to WKU. Jacobs has a strong track record, with a 94-23 career record over 10 years, and his Mercer teams went 15-1 in Southern Conference play over the past two seasons. The transition is significant, but the program has not had a losing season in 16 years, and the new staff believes they can maintain that standard.

Quarterback and Offensive Skill Positions in Flux

Junior quarterback John Alan Richter takes over as the starter after serving as a backup for two seasons. He has completed 66% of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception in limited action, including three starts in 2024. The running back room features CJ Miller, who transferred from Mercer after amassing 1,267 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns last season, alongside Connor Walendzak, who led the Rockets in rushing two years ago. The receiving corps is filled with transfers, including Kalvin Gilbert Jr. from Southeast Missouri State, Anthony Simpson from Michigan, and Adjatay Dabbs from Mercer, while Bryson Hammer, a two-time MAC punt return leader, adds depth. The offensive line returns four starters, anchored by All-MAC candidate Stephen Gales at left tackle.

Defensive Talent Arrives from FCS

The defense is headlined by Andrew Zock, the 2025 FCS Defensive Player of the Year, who recorded 11.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss at Mercer and chose to follow Jacobs to Toledo despite Power 4 offers. He is joined by All-SoCon linebackers Julian Fox and Isaac Prince, also from Mercer. Kari Jackson, a Penn State transfer, made an early impression in spring practice. The secondary includes safety Armorion Smith, who started seven games at Michigan State, and corner Cam Jones, an All-Patriot League performer from Holy Cross. Former Division III nickel Mo Conteh also turned heads in the spring. This unit has talent, but it has yet to prove itself against Power 4 or even MAC competition.

Week 1 Loss to Michigan State Reveals Growing Pains

Toledo opened the season with a 20-30 loss at Michigan State, a game played in heavy rain. The Rockets covered the 10.5-point spread, but the loss highlighted the challenges of fielding a new team against a Power 4 opponent. The defense, led by Zock, showed some resilience, but the offense struggled to keep pace. The short 86-mile road trip did not provide any advantage, and the hostile Big Ten environment was a new experience for many of the Mercer transfers. The result was not unexpected, as the prediction market gave Toledo only a 22% chance to win, but it underscored the gap in experience and talent that the Rockets must close as they move into conference play.

Looking Ahead: Home Opener and MAC Aspirations

Toledo returns home for Week 2 against Central Connecticut, a team with a much lower power rating, and the Rockets are heavy favorites with a 98% win probability. This game offers a chance to build confidence and work out offensive kinks before the MAC schedule begins. The key question for the rest of the season is how quickly the Mercer transfers and other newcomers can adapt to the higher level of competition. If the pass rush, led by Zock, can consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, and if Richter can manage games effectively, Toledo has the potential to be competitive in the MAC. However, the team's inexperience and the loss of key veterans from last year's squad make consistency a major concern. The Rockets' 16-year streak of non-losing seasons will be tested as they navigate a challenging schedule.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Toledo Rockets's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Toledo Rockets is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.

What is Toledo Rockets's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Toledo Rockets holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -4.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Toledo Rockets's home field advantage rating?

Toledo Rockets's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Toledo Rockets's 2026 win total?

Toledo Rockets's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -135 over and +105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Toledo Rockets travel in 2026?

Toledo Rockets travels 4,886 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 108th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Toledo Rockets: 0-1 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -4.3 (2026 records).