Toledo Rockets is 0-1 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -4.3. Toledo Rockets enters the season with a power rating of -4.3, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Toledo Rockets host Central Connecticut next in Week 2. In 2025, Toledo Rockets went 8-5 overall, 9-4 against the spread, and 7-6 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Toledo Rockets Power Rating of -4.3 is 4.3 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Toledo Rockets have logged 173 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,886 miles, ranking 108th heaviest in the FBS.
John Alan Richter QB, CJ Miller RB, Connor Walendzak RB, Stephen Gales OL, Kalvin Gilbert Jr. WR, Anthony Simpson WR, Adjatay Dabbs WR, Bryson Hammer WR
Andrew Zock EDGE, Kari Jackson LB, Julian Fox LB, Isaac Prince LB, Armorion Smith S, Cam Jones CB, Mo Conteh CB
Reice Griffith K, Emilio Duran P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Week 11 | 5-4 | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Week 12 | 6-4 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-4 | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Week 14 | 8-4 | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Postseason | 8-5 | 9-4 | 7-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -1.6 in the preseason and finished -4.3 after week 2, a move of -2.6 points. High -1.6 (the preseason), low -4.3 (week 2).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ball State | 9 | 7-2 | 3-6 |
| Buffalo | 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Eastern Michigan | 9 | 7-2 | 3-6 |
| Western Michigan | 9 | 5-4 | 4-5 |
| Massachusetts | 4 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Bowling Green | 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Ohio | 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Michigan State, Central Connecticut, Temple, Sacramento State.
Week 04,886 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Michigan State | 86 mi | 173 mi |
| Week 2 | Central Connecticut | Home | 173 mi |
| Week 3 | Temple | Home | 173 mi |
| Week 4 | San Diego State | Home | 173 mi |
| Week 5 | Ball State | 137 mi | 447 mi |
| Week 6 | Buffalo | Home | 447 mi |
| Week 7 | Eastern Michigan | 41 mi | 530 mi |
| Week 8 | Western Michigan | Home | 530 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Sacramento State | 1,998 mi | 4,526 mi |
| Week 11 | Massachusetts | Home | 4,526 mi |
| Week 12 | Bowling Green | Home | 4,526 mi |
| Week 13 | Ohio | 180 mi | 4,886 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Toledo enters 2026 with a largely rebuilt roster under first-year head coach Mike Jacobs, who brought 14 players with him from FCS Mercer. The Rockets lost many key contributors from last year's squad, including potential first-round safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and tight end CC Ezirim, who transferred to WKU. Jacobs has a strong track record, with a 94-23 career record over 10 years, and his Mercer teams went 15-1 in Southern Conference play over the past two seasons. The transition is significant, but the program has not had a losing season in 16 years, and the new staff believes they can maintain that standard.
Junior quarterback John Alan Richter takes over as the starter after serving as a backup for two seasons. He has completed 66% of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception in limited action, including three starts in 2024. The running back room features CJ Miller, who transferred from Mercer after amassing 1,267 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns last season, alongside Connor Walendzak, who led the Rockets in rushing two years ago. The receiving corps is filled with transfers, including Kalvin Gilbert Jr. from Southeast Missouri State, Anthony Simpson from Michigan, and Adjatay Dabbs from Mercer, while Bryson Hammer, a two-time MAC punt return leader, adds depth. The offensive line returns four starters, anchored by All-MAC candidate Stephen Gales at left tackle.
The defense is headlined by Andrew Zock, the 2025 FCS Defensive Player of the Year, who recorded 11.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss at Mercer and chose to follow Jacobs to Toledo despite Power 4 offers. He is joined by All-SoCon linebackers Julian Fox and Isaac Prince, also from Mercer. Kari Jackson, a Penn State transfer, made an early impression in spring practice. The secondary includes safety Armorion Smith, who started seven games at Michigan State, and corner Cam Jones, an All-Patriot League performer from Holy Cross. Former Division III nickel Mo Conteh also turned heads in the spring. This unit has talent, but it has yet to prove itself against Power 4 or even MAC competition.
Toledo opened the season with a 20-30 loss at Michigan State, a game played in heavy rain. The Rockets covered the 10.5-point spread, but the loss highlighted the challenges of fielding a new team against a Power 4 opponent. The defense, led by Zock, showed some resilience, but the offense struggled to keep pace. The short 86-mile road trip did not provide any advantage, and the hostile Big Ten environment was a new experience for many of the Mercer transfers. The result was not unexpected, as the prediction market gave Toledo only a 22% chance to win, but it underscored the gap in experience and talent that the Rockets must close as they move into conference play.
Toledo returns home for Week 2 against Central Connecticut, a team with a much lower power rating, and the Rockets are heavy favorites with a 98% win probability. This game offers a chance to build confidence and work out offensive kinks before the MAC schedule begins. The key question for the rest of the season is how quickly the Mercer transfers and other newcomers can adapt to the higher level of competition. If the pass rush, led by Zock, can consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, and if Richter can manage games effectively, Toledo has the potential to be competitive in the MAC. However, the team's inexperience and the loss of key veterans from last year's squad make consistency a major concern. The Rockets' 16-year streak of non-losing seasons will be tested as they navigate a challenging schedule.
Toledo Rockets is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Toledo Rockets holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -4.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Toledo Rockets's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Toledo Rockets's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -135 over and +105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Toledo Rockets travels 4,886 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 108th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Toledo Rockets: 0-1 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -4.3 (2026 records).