Toledo Rockets

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Toledo Rockets is 5-2 on the season, 4-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -2.5. Toledo Rockets is covering the spread at 65% since the start of last season (13-7), well above the FBS average. The Toledo Rockets host Western Michigan next in Week 8.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Power Rating (most current): -2.5
HFA Rating:2.9 pts
2026 Win Total:7.5
2026 Record: 5-2
2026 ATS: 4-3
2026 O/U: 5-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Toledo Rockets Power Rating of -2.5 is 2.5 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Toledo Rockets have logged 530 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,886 miles, ranking 108th heaviest in the FBS.

Toledo Rockets Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachMike Jacobs
TenureFirst season
Career record94-23 (10 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorCris Reisert
Defensive coordinatorJahmal Brown

Offense

John Alan Richter QB, CJ Miller RB, Connor Walendzak RB, Stephen Gales OL, Kalvin Gilbert Jr. WR, Anthony Simpson WR, Adjatay Dabbs WR, Bryson Hammer WR

Defense

Andrew Zock EDGE, Kari Jackson LB, Julian Fox LB, Isaac Prince LB, Armorion Smith S, Cam Jones CB, Mo Conteh CB

Special teams

Reice Griffith K, Emilio Duran P

2025 Season in Review

Record8-5 ATS9-4 O/U7-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-11-00-1
Week 21-12-01-1
Week 32-13-02-1
Week 42-23-12-2
Week 53-24-12-3
Week 73-34-23-3
Week 84-35-24-3
Week 94-45-34-4
Week 115-46-35-4
Week 126-47-35-5
Week 137-47-46-5
Week 148-48-46-6
Postseason8-59-47-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -1.6 in the preseason and finished -2.5 after week 8, a move of -0.9 points. High +0.4 (week 6), low -4.4 (week 7).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -1.6 to -2.5.

PreW8

Toledo Rockets SP+ Profile

Offence+16.7121 of 138higher is better
Defence+27.984 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.4108 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±5.8 pts
HFA measured+3.8 pts
HFA applied+2.9 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
San Diego State10-10-1
Ball State97-23-6
Buffalo51-41-4
Eastern Michigan97-23-6
Western Michigan95-44-5
Massachusetts44-02-2
Bowling Green106-43-7
Ohio52-32-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Michigan State, Central Connecticut, Temple, Sacramento State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home47-1131-27 ATS · 58 games
On the road28-2725-30 ATS · 55 games
Neutral site5-74-8 ATS · 12 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

4,886 miles - ranked 108th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 4,886 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 04,886 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Michigan State86 mi173 mi
Week 2Central ConnecticutHome173 mi
Week 3TempleHome173 mi
Week 4San Diego StateHome173 mi
Week 5Ball State137 mi447 mi
Week 6BuffaloHome447 mi
Week 7Eastern Michigan41 mi530 mi
Week 8Western MichiganHome530 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Sacramento State1,998 mi4,526 mi
Week 11MassachusettsHome4,526 mi
Week 12Bowling GreenHome4,526 mi
Week 13Ohio180 mi4,886 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Toledo Rockets Season Outlook

New Staff, New Roster, Same Winning Standard

Mike Jacobs took over a program that had not suffered a losing season in 16 years and immediately remade the roster, bringing 14 transfers from his FCS Mercer team. The early returns are encouraging: Toledo sits at 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the MAC, with a road win at Eastern Michigan and a home victory over San Diego State. The Rockets have been competitive in every game except their opener at Michigan State, a 30-20 loss in which they covered a 10.5-point spread. The transition has not been seamless, but the foundation is solid.

John Alan Richter Has Emerged as a Difference-Maker at Quarterback

The junior quarterback has been the engine of the offense, throwing for 1,657 yards and 12 touchdowns with only three interceptions. His signature performance came in a 49-48 overtime win over Temple, when he threw for 429 yards and four scores, including the game-tying touchdown with 54 seconds left in regulation. He followed that with 284 yards and three touchdowns against San Diego State, and he has shown the ability to spread the ball to a deep receiver room that includes Bryson Hammer, who had six catches for 133 yards against the Aztecs, and Adjatay Dabbs, who scored in the win over Eastern Michigan.

The Running Game Is a Two-Headed Monster

CJ Miller and Connor Walendzak have formed a potent backfield duo. Miller, a Mercer transfer, has rushed for 707 yards and eight touchdowns, including a 196-yard outburst at Ball State in which he broke runs of 50 and 68 yards. Walendzak, who led the Rockets in rushing two years ago, has added 431 yards and seven scores, finding the end zone in each of the first four games. Their combined 299-yard performance against the Cardinals was the highlight of the ground attack, but consistency has been an issue: against Buffalo, Walendzak was limited to 50 yards and the offense managed only 304 total yards.

The Defense Is Talented but Volatile

Led by FCS Defensive Player of the Year Andrew Zock, the Toledo defense has shown flashes of dominance, holding Central Connecticut to 139 total yards and racking up six sacks and nine tackles for loss at Eastern Michigan. However, the unit has been gashed by competent offenses: Temple put up 48 points, Buffalo gained 351 yards, and San Diego State moved the ball effectively late. The transfer-laden front seven, which includes All-SoCon linebackers Julian Fox and Isaac Prince, is still building cohesion. The return of corner Cam Jones and safety Armorion Smith has helped, but the Rockets rank near the bottom of the MAC in passing yards allowed.

Special Teams and Field Position Are Quiet Advantages

Bryson Hammer led the MAC in punt return yardage the past two seasons, and he has continued to flip field position. Kicker Reice Griffith has been reliable, hitting 8 of 10 field goals, including a 43-yarder at Ball State. The punt team also blocked a punt for a touchdown against Central Connecticut. These hidden yards have been crucial in close games, but their impact is magnified when the offense sustains drives. If the Rockets can avoid the three-and-outs that plagued them against Buffalo, special teams could be the edge in the race for the MAC West title.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Toledo Rockets's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Toledo Rockets is 4-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is Toledo Rockets's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Toledo Rockets holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -2.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Toledo Rockets's home field advantage rating?

Toledo Rockets's home field advantage rating is 2.9 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Toledo Rockets's 2026 win total?

Toledo Rockets's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 7.5 wins, priced at -135 over and +105 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Toledo Rockets travel in 2026?

Toledo Rockets travels 4,886 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 108th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Toledo Rockets: 5-2 overall, 4-3 ATS, power rating -2.5 (2026 records).