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Week 5 •
Scheumann Stadium

Toledo @ Ball State

0-0 MAC Power rating: -1.6
0-0 MAC Power rating: -22.1

By · Last updated

Is there value in the Toledo vs Ball State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TOL -17.3
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors TOLfavors BALL ▸
‹ 20.5 TOL
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BALL
no impact
no impact
no impact
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1 TOL1 BALL2 TOL2 BALL3 TOL3 BALLModel: TOL -17.3

Toledo (power rating: -1.6) carries a 20.5-point advantage over Ball State (-22.1) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Ball State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2) narrows that gap at Scheumann Stadium. Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Toledo vs Ball State at Scheumann Stadium?

The latest reading for Scheumann Stadium shows Cloudy, 66°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Toledo and Ball State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Toledo (-1.6) over Ball State (-22.1) by 20.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ball State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ball State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Toledo and Ball State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Blue Chip makes this Toledo -17.3. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of August 29, 2026 Preliminary

Cloudy

66°F

Rain23%
Precip0.00"
Humidity92%
Wind7 mph ESE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Toledo at Ball State: aerial view of Scheumann Stadium, wind from the ESE at 7.2 mph, gusting to 9.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
12:00 AM EDT
Venue
Scheumann Stadium
Capacity
16,319
Elevation
951 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ToledoAway Ball StateHome
This week137 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game450 miles
Season total310 miles1,486 miles
Body clock00:0000:00
Rest7 days7 days

Toledo travels 137 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.