Bowling Green Falcons is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -16.6. Bowling Green Falcons enters the season with a power rating of -16.6, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Bowling Green Falcons head to Nebraska next in Week 2. In 2025, Bowling Green Falcons went 4-8 overall, 5-7 against the spread, and 5-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Bowling Green Falcons Power Rating of -16.6 is 16.6 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Bowling Green Falcons have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,511 miles, ranking 130th heaviest in the FBS.
Austin Novosad QB, Austyn Dendy RB, James Thomas Jr. OL, Alexis Sanchez OL, Jeremiah Scoby TE, Brennan Ridley WR, Winn Sharp WR
Myles Bradley EDGE, Eriq George DL, Dorian Pringle LB, Sanders Ellis LB, Kal-El Pascal S, JoJo Johnson CB
Travis Kenner K, Ryan Kingston P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -16.3 in the preseason and finished -16.6 after week 2, a move of -0.3 points. High -16.3 (the preseason), low -16.6 (week 1).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -4.2 is regressed to +0.8 before it is applied, a difference of 5.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | 8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Ball State | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo | 9 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Western Michigan | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Kent State | 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Toledo | 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Massachusetts | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Tarleton State, Nebraska, Iowa State, South Florida, Sacramento State.
Week 03,511 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Tarleton State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Nebraska | 683 mi | 1,367 mi |
| Week 3 | Iowa State | 520 mi | 2,406 mi |
| Week 4 | South Florida | Home | 2,406 mi |
| Week 5 | Miami (OH) | 141 mi | 2,688 mi |
| Week 6 | Sacramento State | Home | 2,688 mi |
| Week 7 | Ball State | Home | 2,688 mi |
| Week 8 | Buffalo | 273 mi | 3,233 mi |
| Week 9 | Western Michigan | 120 mi | 3,473 mi |
| Week 10 | - | Bye | |
| Week 11 | Kent State | Home | 3,473 mi |
| Week 12 | Toledo | 19 mi | 3,511 mi |
| Week 13 | Massachusetts | Home | 3,511 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Bowling Green opened 2026 with a 20-13 home loss to FCS Tarleton State, a result that underscored the preseason concerns about a rebuilt offensive line and a new starting quarterback. Jay Kastantin, not Austin Novosad, took the snaps and threw for 283 yards on 24-of-30 passing, but the offense managed just one touchdown and was stopped on a critical fourth-and-1 at the 8-yard line late in the fourth quarter. The line, which lost all five starters from 2025, struggled to create consistent running lanes, and the team's run-heavy identity (62% run rate last year) did not materialize effectively. Austyn Dendy, who had three straight 100-yard games to end last season, was held in check and could not break the game open. The Falcons will need to settle the quarterback situation and find more push up front to compete in MAC play.
The preseason outlook highlighted the front six as the team's strength, and that unit did not disappoint in the opener, but the secondary was a clear weakness. Myles Bradley and Eriq George, who combined for nine sacks in 2025, were expected to pressure the quarterback, and while they had moments, Tarleton State's offense still managed 206 passing yards and two touchdowns. The secondary, which returned only safety Kal-El Pascal as a starter, was exposed on a 99-yard drive that included a 72-yard run and a 7-yard touchdown pass. Cornerback JoJo Johnson, who led the MAC with 13 pass breakups last year, could not single-handedly cover for the lack of depth. The front six, including middle linebacker Dorian Pringle, who is back after a season-ending injury in 2025, will need to generate more consistent pressure to protect a vulnerable back end.
In a game decided by seven points, Bowling Green's special teams and ball security were decisive factors. The Falcons allowed Tarleton State to build a 17-0 lead, and while they rallied to make it 17-7 at halftime, they could not complete the comeback. A late fumble by Tylan Hines gave Bowling Green one final chance, but the drive stalled at the 8-yard line as time expired. The Falcons' own turnover, a fumble by Austyn Dendy on a fourth-and-1, was a critical moment that shifted momentum. Walk-on kicker Travis Kenner, who was a preseason question mark, did not attempt a field goal, so his reliability remains untested. Ryan Kingston, the punter from Southeast Missouri State, averaged 41 yards per punt last season and will need to be a weapon in field-position battles, especially in MAC games where margins are often thin.
Bowling Green's schedule does not get easier, as they travel to Nebraska in Week 2 as a 28.5-point underdog. The Cornhuskers are 1-0 and have a power rating of 9.34, far above Bowling Green's -16.56. This game is a likely loss, but it offers a chance for the Falcons to test their rebuilt offense and young secondary against a Power Five opponent. After that, the MAC schedule will determine whether this team can reach a bowl game, which was the preseason ceiling. With 55 new players on the roster, including transfers like quarterback Austin Novosad and linebacker Sanders Ellis, the Falcons are in a transition year. The loss to Tarleton State, a team that beat Army last season, is not a fatal blow, but it raises the margin for error in conference play. Eddie George's second year will be defined by how quickly this young team can gel and whether the defense can carry the offense while the line and quarterback situation stabilize.
Bowling Green Falcons is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Bowling Green Falcons holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -16.6, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Bowling Green Falcons's home field advantage rating is 0.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Bowling Green Falcons's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -165 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Bowling Green Falcons travels 3,511 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 130th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Bowling Green Falcons: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -16.6 (2026 records).