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Bowling Green Falcons is 2-5 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -17.8. Bowling Green Falcons holds a power rating of -17.8, placing them in the weaker tier of the FBS and typically entering games as a significant underdog. The Bowling Green Falcons head to Buffalo next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Bowling Green Falcons Power Rating of -17.8 is 17.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Bowling Green Falcons have logged 2,688 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,511 miles, ranking 130th heaviest in the FBS.
Austin Novosad QB, Austyn Dendy RB, James Thomas Jr. OL, Alexis Sanchez OL, Jeremiah Scoby TE, Brennan Ridley WR, Winn Sharp WR
Myles Bradley EDGE, Eriq George DL, Dorian Pringle LB, Sanders Ellis LB, Kal-El Pascal S, JoJo Johnson CB
Travis Kenner K, Ryan Kingston P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Week 10 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Week 11 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 3-8 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 5-7 | 5-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -16.3 in the preseason and finished -17.8 after week 8, a move of -1.5 points. High -16.3 (week 7), low -22.8 (week 4).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of -4.2 is regressed to +0.8 before it is applied, a difference of 5.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | 8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Ball State | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo | 9 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Western Michigan | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Kent State | 10 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Toledo | 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Massachusetts | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Tarleton State, Nebraska, Iowa State, South Florida, Sacramento State.
Week 03,511 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Tarleton State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Nebraska | 683 mi | 1,367 mi |
| Week 3 | Iowa State | 520 mi | 2,406 mi |
| Week 4 | South Florida | Home | 2,406 mi |
| Week 5 | Miami (OH) | 141 mi | 2,688 mi |
| Week 6 | Sacramento State | Home | 2,688 mi |
| Week 7 | Ball State | Home | 2,688 mi |
| Week 8 | Buffalo | 273 mi | 3,233 mi |
| Week 9 | Western Michigan | 120 mi | 3,473 mi |
| Week 10 | - | Bye | |
| Week 11 | Kent State | Home | 3,473 mi |
| Week 12 | Toledo | 19 mi | 3,511 mi |
| Week 13 | Massachusetts | Home | 3,511 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Bowling Green opened 0-4 with a home loss to FCS Tarleton State and blowout defeats at Nebraska and Iowa State, but the Falcons have since won two of three, including a 24-20 road win at Miami (OH) and a 38-10 home victory over Sacramento State. At 2-5 overall and 2-0 in MAC play, they remain in the conference race despite a brutal non-conference slate.
The rebuilt offensive line, which lost all five starters from last season, struggled mightily against power-conference fronts, managing just 169 total yards at Nebraska. However, against MAC competition, the line has opened holes for Austyn Dendy, who rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns against Sacramento State and scored the overtime touchdown against Ball State. The Falcons rushed for 218 yards and three touchdowns against the Hornets, showing the 62 percent run identity that was theoretical early in the season is becoming real.
The defensive backfield, led by safety Kal-El Pascal and cornerback JoJo Johnson, has been torched repeatedly. Tarleton State's Kaden Anderson threw for 206 yards and two scores, Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea tossed four first-half touchdowns, and Iowa State hung 55 points. Even in wins, opposing quarterbacks have moved the ball through the air. With limited depth beyond the starters, this unit is the team's biggest liability and will be tested weekly in MAC play.
Myles Bradley and Eriq George combined for nine sacks in 2025, and Dorian Pringle returned from injury as a playmaker, but the pass rush was inconsistent through the first month. The front six finally flipped a game against Sacramento State, forcing a fumble that D'kyah Banks returned for a touchdown. If Bradley, George, and Pringle can consistently win early downs and create havoc, they can mask the secondary's deficiencies and keep the Falcons in games.
Jay Kastantin has taken the majority of snaps and has shown poise, throwing for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the win at Miami (OH) and adding 215 yards and two scores against Ball State. However, he has also thrown interceptions and the offense has been prone to slow starts. With a run-heavy approach and a leaky defense, protecting the football and finishing drives will be critical in the remaining MAC schedule, where margins are thin.
Bowling Green Falcons is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.
Bowling Green Falcons holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -17.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Bowling Green Falcons's home field advantage rating is 0.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Bowling Green Falcons's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -165 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Bowling Green Falcons travels 3,511 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 130th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Bowling Green Falcons: 2-5 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -17.8 (2026 records).