Bowling Green Falcons

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Bowling Green Falcons is 2-5 on the season, 3-4 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -17.8. Bowling Green Falcons holds a power rating of -17.8, placing them in the weaker tier of the FBS and typically entering games as a significant underdog. The Bowling Green Falcons head to Buffalo next in Week 8.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
Power Rating (most current): -17.8
HFA Rating:0.8 pts
2026 Win Total:4.5
2026 Record: 2-5
2026 ATS: 3-4
2026 O/U: 5-2

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Bowling Green Falcons Power Rating of -17.8 is 17.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Bowling Green Falcons have logged 2,688 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 3,511 miles, ranking 130th heaviest in the FBS.

Bowling Green Falcons Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachEddie George
Tenure1 season
Record at school4-8
Career record28-30 (5 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorGreg Nosal
Defensive coordinatorJoe Bowden

Offense

Austin Novosad QB, Austyn Dendy RB, James Thomas Jr. OL, Alexis Sanchez OL, Jeremiah Scoby TE, Brennan Ridley WR, Winn Sharp WR

Defense

Myles Bradley EDGE, Eriq George DL, Dorian Pringle LB, Sanders Ellis LB, Kal-El Pascal S, JoJo Johnson CB

Special teams

Travis Kenner K, Ryan Kingston P

2025 Season in Review

Record4-8 ATS5-7 O/U5-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-10-1
Week 21-11-11-1
Week 32-12-11-2
Week 42-23-12-2
Week 52-33-23-2
Week 73-34-24-2
Week 83-44-34-3
Week 93-54-44-4
Week 103-64-54-5
Week 113-74-64-6
Week 133-84-74-7
Week 144-85-75-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -16.3 in the preseason and finished -17.8 after week 8, a move of -1.5 points. High -16.3 (week 7), low -22.8 (week 4).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -16.3 to -17.8.

PreW8

Bowling Green Falcons SP+ Profile

Offence+14.8128 of 138higher is better
Defence+28.388 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.351 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±5.0 pts
HFA measured-4.2 pts
HFA applied+0.8 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of -4.2 is regressed to +0.8 before it is applied, a difference of 5.0 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Miami (OH)82-62-6
Ball State22-01-1
Buffalo93-63-6
Western Michigan53-23-2
Kent State104-64-6
Toledo104-67-3
Massachusetts11-01-0

No meeting on record since 2016: Tarleton State, Nebraska, Iowa State, South Florida, Sacramento State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home21-3318-36 ATS · 54 games
On the road19-4028-29-2 ATS · 59 games
Neutral site0-30-3 ATS · 3 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

3,511 miles - ranked 130th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 3,511 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 03,511 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Tarleton StateHome0 mi
Week 2Nebraska683 mi1,367 mi
Week 3Iowa State520 mi2,406 mi
Week 4South FloridaHome2,406 mi
Week 5Miami (OH)141 mi2,688 mi
Week 6Sacramento StateHome2,688 mi
Week 7Ball StateHome2,688 mi
Week 8Buffalo273 mi3,233 mi
Week 9Western Michigan120 mi3,473 mi
Week 10-Bye
Week 11Kent StateHome3,473 mi
Week 12Toledo19 mi3,511 mi
Week 13MassachusettsHome3,511 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Bowling Green Falcons Season Outlook

Slow start, but MAC play offers a reset

Bowling Green opened 0-4 with a home loss to FCS Tarleton State and blowout defeats at Nebraska and Iowa State, but the Falcons have since won two of three, including a 24-20 road win at Miami (OH) and a 38-10 home victory over Sacramento State. At 2-5 overall and 2-0 in MAC play, they remain in the conference race despite a brutal non-conference slate.

Offensive line and run game finding their footing

The rebuilt offensive line, which lost all five starters from last season, struggled mightily against power-conference fronts, managing just 169 total yards at Nebraska. However, against MAC competition, the line has opened holes for Austyn Dendy, who rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns against Sacramento State and scored the overtime touchdown against Ball State. The Falcons rushed for 218 yards and three touchdowns against the Hornets, showing the 62 percent run identity that was theoretical early in the season is becoming real.

Secondary remains a glaring vulnerability

The defensive backfield, led by safety Kal-El Pascal and cornerback JoJo Johnson, has been torched repeatedly. Tarleton State's Kaden Anderson threw for 206 yards and two scores, Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea tossed four first-half touchdowns, and Iowa State hung 55 points. Even in wins, opposing quarterbacks have moved the ball through the air. With limited depth beyond the starters, this unit is the team's biggest liability and will be tested weekly in MAC play.

Front six must generate pressure to protect the secondary

Myles Bradley and Eriq George combined for nine sacks in 2025, and Dorian Pringle returned from injury as a playmaker, but the pass rush was inconsistent through the first month. The front six finally flipped a game against Sacramento State, forcing a fumble that D'kyah Banks returned for a touchdown. If Bradley, George, and Pringle can consistently win early downs and create havoc, they can mask the secondary's deficiencies and keep the Falcons in games.

Quarterback play and turnover margin will decide close games

Jay Kastantin has taken the majority of snaps and has shown poise, throwing for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the win at Miami (OH) and adding 215 yards and two scores against Ball State. However, he has also thrown interceptions and the offense has been prone to slow starts. With a run-heavy approach and a leaky defense, protecting the football and finishing drives will be critical in the remaining MAC schedule, where margins are thin.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Bowling Green Falcons's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Bowling Green Falcons is 3-4 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 43% of games.

What is Bowling Green Falcons's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Bowling Green Falcons holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -17.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Bowling Green Falcons's home field advantage rating?

Bowling Green Falcons's home field advantage rating is 0.8 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Bowling Green Falcons's 2026 win total?

Bowling Green Falcons's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -165 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Bowling Green Falcons travel in 2026?

Bowling Green Falcons travels 3,511 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 130th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Bowling Green Falcons: 2-5 overall, 3-4 ATS, power rating -17.8 (2026 records).