Week 11 • November 11, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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MAC
Power Rank: -13.3
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MAC
Power Rank: -18.9

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Buffalo (power rating: -13.3) carries a 5.6-point edge over Ball State (-18.9) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Ball State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8) narrows that gap at Scheumann Stadium. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 11
Kick Off (at stadium): 12:00 AM EST
Stadium: Scheumann Stadium
Capacity: 16,319
Elevation: 951 ft
HFA Rating: 2.8
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Buffalo -5.6

Line Value Calculator

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Buffalo
Ball State
Home field — Scheumann Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Buffalo vs Ball State at Scheumann Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Scheumann Stadium shows Clear — 74.4°F, Feels Like 63.9°F with winds of 5.8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Clear

Clear

74.4°F

Feels Like: 63.9°F
Wind: 5.8 mph WNW
Gusts: 12.2 mph
Precipitation: 0.02"
Humidity: 91%
Rain Chance: 14%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Buffalo (Away)

This Week: 393.7 miles
Last Week: 784.2 miles
Season Total: 4407.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 8

Ball State (Home)

This Week: 0.1 miles
Last Week: 1372.2 miles
Season Total: 3454.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Buffalo vs Ball State?

Buffalo: Key Factors

Offensive line inexperience vs. UAlbany front

Buffalo returns only one starter on the offensive line, which was already a weak point last season. Against UAlbany, the Bulls will need to protect redshirt freshman QB Jason Wright and establish the run. If the line struggles, Wright could face heavy pressure, limiting the offense's effectiveness.

Quarterback development under new OC

Jason Wright is a promising dual-threat QB but has no starting experience. He must quickly adapt to Tony Tokarz's system. His ability to make plays with his legs and avoid turnovers will be critical, especially if the passing game takes time to gel with a rebuilt receiver corps.

Rebuilt defense faces FCS opponent

Buffalo's defense lost its coordinator and key players like All-American LB Red Murdock. The defensive line and linebackers are largely new, though the secondary returns experience. Against UAlbany, the defense must show cohesion and avoid big plays, as early-season chemistry is a concern.

Special teams uncertainty in cold, rainy conditions

Both kicker Oliver Hautanen and punter Ethan Stumpf are unproven, and the forecast calls for light rain and 44°F. Wet, cold weather could affect ball handling and kicking. Buffalo's special teams, a point of emphasis under Lembo, must be reliable to avoid giving UAlbany short fields.

Home-field advantage and season opener motivation

Buffalo opens at home with a 2.4-point HFA. Coach Lembo is known for game management and special teams, and the Bulls are motivated to prove they can compete after a rebuilding offseason. A strong start against an FCS opponent could build confidence for the MAC schedule.

Ball State: Key Factors

Quarterback competition and dual-threat potential

Ball State enters with two transfer quarterbacks—Keldric Luster (dual-threat) and Tyler Mizzell (pass-first)—both expected to play. Luster's mobility could be key against Ohio State's defensive front, but the lack of a settled starter may limit offensive rhythm early.

Offensive line strength vs. Ohio State's defensive line

Ball State's offensive line, anchored by All-MAC candidate Tristan Cook at right tackle, is the team's strongest unit. However, Ohio State's defensive line is elite, and the Cardinals' unproven quarterback and receiving corps will need time to operate—making pass protection critical.

Defensive secondary potential but front-seven concerns

The secondary features experienced cornerback Willizhuan Yates and safety Deondre Shepherd, plus Purdue transfer Sterling Smith. However, the defensive line is thin and relies on rotational players like Ameir Glenn and Ben Marsh, which could be exploited by Ohio State's powerful run game and quick passing attack.

Travel and venue factors heavily favor Ohio State

Ball State travels only 128 miles to Ohio Stadium, a short trip, but faces a massive home-field advantage (HFA 3.0) in a 100,000+ seat venue. The forecast is partly cloudy with 63°F and 12 mph wind, which may affect passing but is manageable.

Special teams uncertainty could be costly

Kicker Carson Holmer struggled last season (3-for-7 FG, long 23 yards) and may be a liability in a game where scoring opportunities are limited. Punter Cole Stumbaugh is reliable, but field position battles will be crucial against a superior opponent.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Buffalo travels 394 miles to this game, a short road trip.

How do Buffalo and Ball State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Buffalo (-13.3) over Ball State (-18.9) by 5.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ball State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ball State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Buffalo as the stronger team by 5.6 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.