Week 12 • November 17, 2026, 05:00 AM UTC
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MAC
Power Rank: -18.9
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MAC
Power Rank: -5.0

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Ohio (power rating: -5.0) holds a 13.9-point edge over Ball State (-18.9) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Ohio's home field adds 2.7 points to that edge at Peden Stadium. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 12
Kick Off (at stadium): 12:00 AM EST
Stadium: Peden Stadium
Capacity: 25,210
Elevation: 640 ft
HFA Rating: 2.7
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Ohio -13.9

Line Value Calculator

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Ball State
Ohio
Home field — Peden Stadium
Weather: Mist
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Ball State vs Ohio at Peden Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Peden Stadium shows Mist — 73.0°F, Feels Like 63.7°F with winds of 3.8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Mist

Mist

73.0°F

Feels Like: 63.7°F
Wind: 3.8 mph WNW
Gusts: 8.0 mph
Precipitation: 0.17"
Humidity: 96%
Rain Chance: 21%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Ball State (Away)

This Week: 186.9 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3641.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 6

Ohio (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 282.7 miles
Season Total: 7934.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Ball State vs Ohio?

Ball State: Key Factors

Quarterback competition and dual-threat potential

Ball State enters with two transfer quarterbacks—Keldric Luster (dual-threat) and Tyler Mizzell (pass-first)—both expected to play. Luster's mobility could be key against Ohio State's defensive front, but the lack of a settled starter may limit offensive rhythm early.

Offensive line strength vs. Ohio State's defensive line

Ball State's offensive line, anchored by All-MAC candidate Tristan Cook at right tackle, is the team's strongest unit. However, Ohio State's defensive line is elite, and the Cardinals' unproven quarterback and receiving corps will need time to operate—making pass protection critical.

Defensive secondary potential but front-seven concerns

The secondary features experienced cornerback Willizhuan Yates and safety Deondre Shepherd, plus Purdue transfer Sterling Smith. However, the defensive line is thin and relies on rotational players like Ameir Glenn and Ben Marsh, which could be exploited by Ohio State's powerful run game and quick passing attack.

Travel and venue factors heavily favor Ohio State

Ball State travels only 128 miles to Ohio Stadium, a short trip, but faces a massive home-field advantage (HFA 3.0) in a 100,000+ seat venue. The forecast is partly cloudy with 63°F and 12 mph wind, which may affect passing but is manageable.

Special teams uncertainty could be costly

Kicker Carson Holmer struggled last season (3-for-7 FG, long 23 yards) and may be a liability in a game where scoring opportunities are limited. Punter Cole Stumbaugh is reliable, but field position battles will be crucial against a superior opponent.

Ohio: Key Factors

Offensive line overhaul vs. Nebraska's defensive front

Ohio's offensive line is entirely rebuilt through the transfer portal, which is a major concern against a Nebraska defense that typically features size and athleticism up front. The Bobcats' ability to establish the run and protect new quarterback Matt Vezza will be tested early, especially with the projected windy conditions (15 mph) that could limit the passing game.

Quarterback transition and weather challenges

Matt Vezza, an FCS transfer from New Hampshire, will make his FBS debut on the road in a hostile environment. With patchy rain and 15 mph winds forecasted, the passing game could be disrupted, placing additional pressure on Vezza to manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers against a Nebraska secondary that will look to capitalize on his inexperience.

Defensive disruption as a key to staying competitive

Ohio's defense, led by linebackers Jack Fries and Michael Molnar, is expected to be the strength of the team under new coordinator Kurt Mattix's aggressive scheme. Generating pressure and creating negative plays will be crucial to keep the game close, especially if the offense struggles. The unit's ability to adapt quickly to the new system will be tested against Nebraska's experienced offensive line.

Travel and venue factors working against Ohio

Ohio travels 780 miles to Lincoln for the season opener, facing a Nebraska team with a significant home-field advantage (HFA 2.3). The long trip and loud environment at Memorial Stadium could lead to early communication issues and penalties, particularly for a team with many new starters on offense.

Special teams could provide a spark or a liability

Punter Magnus Haines and kicker Will Hryszko are proven assets, but the return game with Duncan Brune and Max Rodarte offers big-play potential. In a game where points may be at a premium, field position and a key return could swing momentum. However, the windy conditions may affect Hryszko's field goal accuracy, making fourth-down decisions critical.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Ball State travels 187 miles to this game, a short road trip.

How do Ball State and Ohio compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Ohio (-5.0) over Ball State (-18.9) by 13.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ohio brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Ohio as the stronger team by 13.9 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.