Week 3
Williams Stadium (VA)

Ball State @ Liberty , Week 3, Sep 19, 2026

0-0 MAC Power rating: -22.1
0-0 CUSA Power rating: -7.9

Is there value in the Ball State vs Liberty line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
LIB -16.6
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors BALLfavors LIB ▸
14.2 › LIB
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1 BALL1 LIB2 BALL2 LIBModel: LIB -16.6

Liberty (power rating: -7.9) holds a 14.2-point advantage over Ball State (-22.1) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Liberty's home field adds 2.4 points to that advantage at Williams Stadium (VA). Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Ball State vs Liberty at Williams Stadium (VA)?

The latest reading for Williams Stadium (VA) shows Light rain shower, 69°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Ball State and Liberty compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Liberty (-7.9) over Ball State (-22.1) by 14.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Liberty brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Liberty -16.6. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of August 29, 2026 Preliminary

Light rain shower

69°F

Rain39%
Precip0.01"
Humidity92%
Wind2 mph NW
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Ball State at Liberty: aerial view of Williams Stadium (VA), wind from the NW at 2 mph, gusting to 8.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM EDT
Venue
Williams Stadium (VA)
Capacity
25,000
Elevation
883 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Ball StateAway LibertyHome
This week390 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total646 miles153 miles
Body clock16:0016:00
Rest7 days7 days

Ball State travels 390 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.