Sacramento State Hornets is 1-4 on the season, 2-3 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -27.7. Sacramento State Hornets carries one of the heaviest travel loads in the FBS, ranked 3rd with 20,907 miles travelled this season, a meaningful fatigue factor for away games. The Sacramento State Hornets head to Bowling Green next in Week 6.
In Week 4 of 2026 the Sacramento State Hornets Power Rating of -27.7 is 27.7 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Sacramento State Hornets have logged 4,286 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 20,907 miles, ranking 3rd heaviest in the FBS.
Carson Conklin QB, Jamar Curtis RB, Curron Borders RB, Matt Coleman WR, Onterrio Smith Jr. WR, Bryson Summers OL, Jeremiah Stallworth OL
Derek Houston LB, Alex Rocha LB, Jamel Howard DL, Boogsie Silvera S
Grant Meadors K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 5-4 |
| Week 11 | 6-4 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Week 12 | 7-4 | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -24.5 in the preseason and finished -27.7 after week 5, a move of -3.2 points. High -21.8 (week 2), low -27.7 (week 5).
PreW5
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
Week 020,907 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Eastern Michigan | 1,992 mi | 3,985 mi |
| Week 1 | Mississippi Valley State | Home | 3,985 mi |
| Week 2 | Fresno State | 151 mi | 4,286 mi |
| Week 3 | North Dakota State | Home | 4,286 mi |
| Week 4 | Massachusetts | Home | 4,286 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Bowling Green | 2,000 mi | 8,287 mi |
| Week 7 | Ohio | Home | 8,287 mi |
| Week 8 | Ball State | 1,918 mi | 12,122 mi |
| Week 9 | Kent State | Home | 12,122 mi |
| Week 10 | Toledo | Home | 12,122 mi |
| Week 11 | Central Michigan | 1,929 mi | 15,980 mi |
| Week 12 | - | Bye | |
| Week 13 | Hawai'i | 2,463 mi | 20,907 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Sacramento State's first season in the FBS and the MAC has been a rough adjustment. The Hornets opened with a 28-17 loss at Eastern Michigan, then were routed 49-3 at Fresno State, managing just 262 total yards. Their lone win was a 52-0 shutout of FCS Mississippi Valley State, a game that now looks like an outlier. At 1-3, with a power rating around -24, the step up in competition has exposed the roster's limitations.
The rebuilt offensive line was the biggest preseason question, and it has been the decisive weakness. Against Eastern Michigan, Carson Conklin was under constant pressure, completing 25 of 46 passes with an interception. At Fresno State, the line collapsed again, and the Hornets mustered only a field goal. The unit has yet to prove it can hold up against FBS fronts, which has sabotaged the entire offense.
Carson Conklin, a former Freshman All-American at the FCS level, returned after a year at Fresno State but has not recaptured his form. He struggled in the opener and was intercepted, and Jackson Sharman has since taken most of the snaps, throwing for 247 yards and four touchdowns against Mississippi Valley State but only 150 yards against Fresno State. The Hornets have yet to find a consistent trigger for an offense that was supposed to lean on Conklin's dual-threat ability.
The new 3-3-5 scheme under coordinator Adam Clark has been a tale of two levels. Against Mississippi Valley State, the Hornets allowed just 147 total yards and pitched a shutout. But against Eastern Michigan and Fresno State, the defense surrendered 28 and 49 points, including 542 yards to the Bulldogs. The linebackers, Derek Houston and Alex Rocha, are the strength, but the rebuilt secondary and a defensive line rotating around Wisconsin transfer Jamel Howard have been exposed by competent passing attacks.
The schedule remains challenging, but Sacramento State has already shown it can handle lesser competition. The key will be whether the offensive line can stabilize and whether Conklin or Sharman can generate explosive plays to Matt Coleman and Onterrio Smith Jr. Defensively, the Hornets need the secondary to grow up quickly. With a first-time head coach in Alonzo Carter and a roster built for FCS independence, the transition was always going to be difficult, but the rest of the season is about establishing an identity and building for the future.
Sacramento State Hornets is 2-3 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 40% of games.
Sacramento State Hornets holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -27.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Sacramento State Hornets's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Sacramento State Hornets's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -115 over and -115 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Sacramento State Hornets travels 20,907 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 3rd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Sacramento State Hornets: 1-4 overall, 2-3 ATS, power rating -27.7 (2026 records).
.png)
