Sacramento State Hornets finished 2025 at 7-5, 6-6 against the spread, and enter 2026 with a power rating of -24.5. They covered in 50% of those games (6-6), close to the FBS average. The Sacramento State Hornets head to Eastern Michigan next in Week 0.
In Week 0 of 2026 the Sacramento State Hornets Power Rating of -24.5 is 24.2 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Sacramento State Hornets have logged 3,985 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 20,907 miles, ranking 3rd heaviest in the FBS.
Carson Conklin QB, Jamar Curtis RB, Curron Borders RB, Matt Coleman WR, Onterrio Smith Jr. WR, Bryson Summers OL, Jeremiah Stallworth OL
Derek Houston LB, Alex Rocha LB, Jamel Howard DL, Boogsie Silvera S
Grant Meadors K
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 5-4 |
| Week 11 | 6-4 | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Week 12 | 7-4 | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Week 13 | 7-5 | 6-6 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.0 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
Week 020,907 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | Eastern Michigan | 1,992 mi | 3,985 mi |
| Week 1 | Mississippi Valley State | Home | 3,985 mi |
| Week 2 | Fresno State | 151 mi | 4,286 mi |
| Week 3 | North Dakota State | Home | 4,286 mi |
| Week 4 | Massachusetts | Home | 4,286 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Bowling Green | 2,000 mi | 8,287 mi |
| Week 7 | Ohio | Home | 8,287 mi |
| Week 8 | Ball State | 1,918 mi | 12,122 mi |
| Week 9 | Kent State | Home | 12,122 mi |
| Week 10 | Toledo | Home | 12,122 mi |
| Week 11 | Central Michigan | 1,929 mi | 15,980 mi |
| Week 12 | - | Bye | |
| Week 13 | Hawai'i | 2,463 mi | 20,907 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Sacramento State enters 2026 under first-time head coach Alonzo Carter, transitioning from FCS independent status to the Mid-American Conference. The roster was built before the MAC invitation arrived, creating challenges in depth and alignment. The Hornets face a steep learning curve with a new 3-3-5 defensive scheme and an overhauled wide receiver corps after the position group largely entered the transfer portal. The season will be defined by how quickly this rebuilt roster can adapt to a higher level of competition and a grueling travel schedule that includes a Week 0 trip to Eastern Michigan.
Carson Conklin returns to Sacramento State after a year at Fresno State, bringing experience as a former Jerry Rice Award finalist. In his previous stint with the Hornets, he completed 62% of his passes for 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His mobility and familiarity with the program are critical, especially given the turnover at wide receiver. Conklin will need to develop chemistry with new targets like San Jose State transfer Matt Coleman and Onterrio Smith Jr., while relying on a rebuilt offensive line anchored by Bryson Summers and Jeremiah Stallworth.
The Hornets' strongest unit is their linebacker corps, led by Derek Houston and Alex Rocha. Both missed significant time in 2025 due to injuries but were fully healthy in spring ball. Their ability to stay on the field is vital for a defense transitioning to a 3-3-5 scheme under coordinator Adam Clark. The defensive line, featuring Wisconsin transfer Jamel Howard, and a completely revamped secondary with safety Boogsie Silvera will rely on the linebackers to set the tone and compensate for inexperience elsewhere.
Sacramento State boasts a strong backfield with Jamar Curtis and Curron Borders. Curtis, an FCS All-American at Lafayette, has over 3,500 total yards and 35 touchdowns in his career, though he was limited by injury in 2025. Borders provides a complementary option. This duo can take pressure off Conklin and the passing game, especially early in the season as the wide receiver group gels. Establishing the run will be key to controlling the clock and keeping the defense off the field against MAC opponents.
Kicker Grant Meadors returns after a solid 2025 season, hitting 12 of 15 field goals with a long of 42 yards. His reliability will be crucial in close games. However, the punter position remains unsettled. The Hornets also face a demanding travel schedule, with nearly 17,000 miles of cumulative travel, including a Week 0 trip to Eastern Michigan. Adapting to Midwest weather and November Tuesday games will test the team's resilience and depth, especially for a roster built on the West Coast.
Sacramento State Hornets was 6-6 against the spread in the 2025 season, covering 50% of games.
Sacramento State Hornets holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -24.5, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Sacramento State Hornets's home field advantage rating is 2.5 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Sacramento State Hornets's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 4.5 wins, priced at -115 over and -115 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Sacramento State Hornets travels 20,907 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 3rd heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Sacramento State Hornets: 7-5 overall, 6-6 ATS, power rating -24.5 (2025 records).
