26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
Final
6
31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
@
Buffalo Bulls is 4-3 on the season, 2-4-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -12.1. Buffalo Bulls is covering at just 31% since the start of last season (5-11-2), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Buffalo Bulls host Bowling Green next in Week 8.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Buffalo Bulls Power Rating of -12.1 is 12.1 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Buffalo Bulls have logged 3,230 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,188 miles, ranking 104th heaviest in the FBS.
Jason Wright QB, Terrance Shelton Jr. RB, Messiah Burch RB, Jasaiah Gathings WR, Chance Morrow WR, Dwayne Early Jr. WR, Tyrell Simmons Jr. WR, Alex Heininger OL
Kobi Blackwell CB, Keontez Bradley CB, SaVeon Brown CB, Miles Greer S, Cornell Evans DL, Will Clark EDGE, Logan Goodwin EDGE, Sedrick Vessah EDGE, Joey Cheshire LB, Stevie Bracey LB, George Hill LB
Oliver Hautanen K, Ethan Stumpf P, Andrew VanSlyke P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Week 4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 2-3 | 1-2-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-3 | 1-3-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 8 | 4-3 | 1-4-1 | 3-3 |
| Week 9 | 4-4 | 1-5-1 | 3-4 |
| Week 10 | 5-4 | 2-5-1 | 3-5 |
| Week 12 | 5-5 | 2-6-1 | 4-5 |
| Week 13 | 5-6 | 2-7-1 | 5-5 |
| Week 14 | 5-7 | 3-7-1 | 6-5 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -14.4 in the preseason and finished -12.1 after week 8, a move of +2.4 points. High -12.1 (week 8), low -17.9 (week 5).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.6 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAlbany | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Penn State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Robert Morris | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Western Michigan | 4 | 0-4 | 1-2-1 |
| Toledo | 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Bowling Green | 9 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Miami (OH) | 9 | 3-6 | 4-5 |
| Ball State | 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Central Michigan | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Akron | 10 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Florida International.
Week 05,188 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | UAlbany | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Florida International | 1,192 mi | 2,385 mi |
| Week 3 | Penn State | 158 mi | 2,701 mi |
| Week 4 | Robert Morris | Home | 2,701 mi |
| Week 5 | Western Michigan | Home | 2,701 mi |
| Week 6 | Toledo | 264 mi | 3,230 mi |
| Week 7 | Massachusetts | Home | 3,230 mi |
| Week 8 | Bowling Green | Home | 3,230 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Miami (OH) | 392 mi | 4,014 mi |
| Week 11 | Ball State | 394 mi | 4,801 mi |
| Week 12 | Central Michigan | Home | 4,801 mi |
| Week 13 | Akron | 193 mi | 5,188 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Buffalo entered 2026 with a new offensive coordinator in Tony Tokarz and significant turnover on both lines. The Bulls returned only one starter on the offensive line (Alex Heininger) and one on the defensive line (Cornell Evans), and they lost All-American linebacker Red Murdock and defensive coordinator Joe Bowen. The result has been an up-and-down season: a 4-3 record with a 2-1 mark in MAC play. The offense has shown flashes, but consistency has been elusive.
Redshirt freshman Jason Wright has had a typical first-year starting experience. He threw three touchdown passes in the opener against UAlbany (all to Chance Morrow) but also had a strip-sack that led to an Albany score. Against Penn State, he completed just 10 of 25 passes for 60 yards and was under constant pressure. He has shown dual-threat ability (95 rushing yards vs. Robert Morris, a rushing touchdown vs. Western Michigan) but has also thrown interceptions and fumbled. His development is the key to the offense's ceiling.
Chance Morrow has emerged as a true No. 1 receiver. He caught all three of Wright's touchdown passes in Week 1, then exploded for 173 yards and two scores at FIU. Messiah Burch has provided a spark in the run game, including a career-high 172 yards against UMass and an 87-yard touchdown run at Toledo. Burch's big-play ability has been crucial, but the run game has been inconsistent behind an overhauled line.
The secondary returned experienced corners Kobi Blackwell and Keontez Bradley and nickel SaVeon Brown, but the pass defense has been torched by credible quarterbacks. FIU's JJ Kohl threw for 367 yards and three scores, and Penn State's Rocco Becht threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The pass rush has been nearly nonexistent, leaving the secondary exposed. However, the defense has made key plays in wins: Stevie Bracey's goal-line tackle sealed the UAlbany win, and Sedrick Vessah recorded a safety against UMass. The return of experienced defensive backs should help as the season progresses.
Pete Lembo is known for special teams discipline, but the unit has been inconsistent. Kicker Oliver Hautanen has made field goals (three against Toledo, three against UMass) but also missed two against Robert Morris. Punter Ethan Stumpf has been inconsistent. However, the return game has shown promise: Phillip Folmar had a 71-yard kickoff return against UMass, and Joseph Stoever recovered a muffed punt. Special teams could be a deciding factor in close MAC games.
Buffalo Bulls is 2-4-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.
Buffalo Bulls holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -12.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Buffalo Bulls's home field advantage rating is 2.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Buffalo Bulls's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Buffalo Bulls travels 5,188 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 104th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Buffalo Bulls: 4-3 overall, 2-4-1 ATS, power rating -12.1 (2026 records).