Buffalo Bulls

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Buffalo Bulls is 4-3 on the season, 2-4-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -12.1. Buffalo Bulls is covering at just 31% since the start of last season (5-11-2), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The Buffalo Bulls host Bowling Green next in Week 8.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: UB Stadium, Amherst, NY
Power Rating (most current): -12.1
HFA Rating:2.3 pts
2026 Win Total:5.5
2026 Record: 4-3
2026 ATS: 2-4-1
2026 O/U: 4-3

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Buffalo Bulls Power Rating of -12.1 is 12.1 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Buffalo Bulls have logged 3,230 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,188 miles, ranking 104th heaviest in the FBS.

Buffalo Bulls Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachPete Lembo
Tenure2 seasons
Record at school14-11
Career record126-76 (17 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorTony Tokarz
Defensive coordinatorBrian Dougherty

Offense

Jason Wright QB, Terrance Shelton Jr. RB, Messiah Burch RB, Jasaiah Gathings WR, Chance Morrow WR, Dwayne Early Jr. WR, Tyrell Simmons Jr. WR, Alex Heininger OL

Defense

Kobi Blackwell CB, Keontez Bradley CB, SaVeon Brown CB, Miles Greer S, Cornell Evans DL, Will Clark EDGE, Logan Goodwin EDGE, Sedrick Vessah EDGE, Joey Cheshire LB, Stevie Bracey LB, George Hill LB

Special teams

Oliver Hautanen K, Ethan Stumpf P, Andrew VanSlyke P

2025 Season in Review

Record5-7 ATS3-7-1 O/U6-5
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-11-00-1
Week 21-11-00-1
Week 32-11-11-1
Week 42-21-21-2
Week 52-31-2-11-3
Week 63-31-3-12-3
Week 84-31-4-13-3
Week 94-41-5-13-4
Week 105-42-5-13-5
Week 125-52-6-14-5
Week 135-62-7-15-5
Week 145-73-7-16-5

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -14.4 in the preseason and finished -12.1 after week 8, a move of +2.4 points. High -12.1 (week 8), low -17.9 (week 5).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -14.4 to -12.1.

PreW8

Buffalo Bulls SP+ Profile

Offence+15.7126 of 138higher is better
Defence+28.185 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.615 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.8 pts
HFA measured+1.6 pts
HFA applied+2.3 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.6 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
UAlbany10-10-1
Penn State10-10-1
Robert Morris11-00-1
Western Michigan40-41-2-1
Toledo54-14-1
Massachusetts33-02-1
Bowling Green96-36-3
Miami (OH)93-64-5
Ball State52-30-5
Central Michigan53-23-2
Akron108-27-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Florida International.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home32-2531-24-2 ATS · 57 games
On the road24-3226-30 ATS · 56 games
Neutral site4-34-3 ATS · 7 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

5,188 miles - ranked 104th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 5,188 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 05,188 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1UAlbanyHome0 mi
Week 2Florida International1,192 mi2,385 mi
Week 3Penn State158 mi2,701 mi
Week 4Robert MorrisHome2,701 mi
Week 5Western MichiganHome2,701 mi
Week 6Toledo264 mi3,230 mi
Week 7MassachusettsHome3,230 mi
Week 8Bowling GreenHome3,230 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Miami (OH)392 mi4,014 mi
Week 11Ball State394 mi4,801 mi
Week 12Central MichiganHome4,801 mi
Week 13Akron193 mi5,188 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Buffalo Bulls Season Outlook

A Rebuild in Progress

Buffalo entered 2026 with a new offensive coordinator in Tony Tokarz and significant turnover on both lines. The Bulls returned only one starter on the offensive line (Alex Heininger) and one on the defensive line (Cornell Evans), and they lost All-American linebacker Red Murdock and defensive coordinator Joe Bowen. The result has been an up-and-down season: a 4-3 record with a 2-1 mark in MAC play. The offense has shown flashes, but consistency has been elusive.

Wright's Growing Pains

Redshirt freshman Jason Wright has had a typical first-year starting experience. He threw three touchdown passes in the opener against UAlbany (all to Chance Morrow) but also had a strip-sack that led to an Albany score. Against Penn State, he completed just 10 of 25 passes for 60 yards and was under constant pressure. He has shown dual-threat ability (95 rushing yards vs. Robert Morris, a rushing touchdown vs. Western Michigan) but has also thrown interceptions and fumbled. His development is the key to the offense's ceiling.

Morrow and Burch Lead the Skill Positions

Chance Morrow has emerged as a true No. 1 receiver. He caught all three of Wright's touchdown passes in Week 1, then exploded for 173 yards and two scores at FIU. Messiah Burch has provided a spark in the run game, including a career-high 172 yards against UMass and an 87-yard touchdown run at Toledo. Burch's big-play ability has been crucial, but the run game has been inconsistent behind an overhauled line.

Defense: Pass Rush Concerns, Secondary Experience

The secondary returned experienced corners Kobi Blackwell and Keontez Bradley and nickel SaVeon Brown, but the pass defense has been torched by credible quarterbacks. FIU's JJ Kohl threw for 367 yards and three scores, and Penn State's Rocco Becht threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The pass rush has been nearly nonexistent, leaving the secondary exposed. However, the defense has made key plays in wins: Stevie Bracey's goal-line tackle sealed the UAlbany win, and Sedrick Vessah recorded a safety against UMass. The return of experienced defensive backs should help as the season progresses.

Special Teams: A Mixed Bag

Pete Lembo is known for special teams discipline, but the unit has been inconsistent. Kicker Oliver Hautanen has made field goals (three against Toledo, three against UMass) but also missed two against Robert Morris. Punter Ethan Stumpf has been inconsistent. However, the return game has shown promise: Phillip Folmar had a 71-yard kickoff return against UMass, and Joseph Stoever recovered a muffed punt. Special teams could be a deciding factor in close MAC games.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Buffalo Bulls's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Buffalo Bulls is 2-4-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 33% of games.

What is Buffalo Bulls's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Buffalo Bulls holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -12.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Buffalo Bulls's home field advantage rating?

Buffalo Bulls's home field advantage rating is 2.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Buffalo Bulls's 2026 win total?

Buffalo Bulls's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Buffalo Bulls travel in 2026?

Buffalo Bulls travels 5,188 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 104th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Buffalo Bulls: 4-3 overall, 2-4-1 ATS, power rating -12.1 (2026 records).