Buffalo Bulls

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Buffalo Bulls is 1-0 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -14.7. Buffalo Bulls enters the season with a power rating of -14.7, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Buffalo Bulls head to Florida International next in Week 2. In 2025, Buffalo Bulls went 5-7 overall, 3-7-1 against the spread, and 6-5 on totals.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: UB Stadium, Amherst, NY
Power Rating (most current): -14.7
HFA Rating:2.3 pts
2026 Win Total:5.5
2026 Record: 1-0
2026 ATS: 0-1
2026 O/U: 0-1

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Buffalo Bulls Power Rating of -14.7 is 14.7 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Buffalo Bulls have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 5,188 miles, ranking 104th heaviest in the FBS.

Buffalo Bulls Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachPete Lembo
Tenure2 seasons
Record at school14-11
Career record126-76 (17 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorTony Tokarz
Defensive coordinatorBrian Dougherty

Offense

Jason Wright QB, Terrance Shelton Jr. RB, Messiah Burch RB, Jasaiah Gathings WR, Chance Morrow WR, Dwayne Early Jr. WR, Tyrell Simmons Jr. WR, Alex Heininger OL

Defense

Kobi Blackwell CB, Keontez Bradley CB, SaVeon Brown CB, Miles Greer S, Cornell Evans DL, Will Clark EDGE, Logan Goodwin EDGE, Sedrick Vessah EDGE, Joey Cheshire LB, Stevie Bracey LB, George Hill LB

Special teams

Oliver Hautanen K, Ethan Stumpf P, Andrew VanSlyke P

2025 Season in Review

Record5-7 ATS3-7-1 O/U6-5
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-11-00-1
Week 21-11-00-1
Week 32-11-11-1
Week 42-21-21-2
Week 52-31-2-11-3
Week 63-31-3-12-3
Week 84-31-4-13-3
Week 94-41-5-13-4
Week 105-42-5-13-5
Week 125-52-6-14-5
Week 135-62-7-15-5
Week 145-73-7-16-5

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -14.4 in the preseason and finished -14.7 after week 2, a move of -0.2 points. High -14.4 (the preseason), low -14.9 (week 1).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from -14.4 to -14.7.

PreW2

Buffalo Bulls SP+ Profile

Offence+15.7126 of 138higher is better
Defence+28.185 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.615 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.8 pts
HFA measured+1.6 pts
HFA applied+2.3 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.6 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
UAlbany10-10-1
Penn State10-10-1
Robert Morris11-00-1
Western Michigan40-41-2-1
Toledo54-14-1
Massachusetts33-02-1
Bowling Green96-36-3
Miami (OH)93-64-5
Ball State52-30-5
Central Michigan53-23-2
Akron108-27-3

No meeting on record since 2016: Florida International.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home32-2531-24-2 ATS · 57 games
On the road24-3226-30 ATS · 56 games
Neutral site4-34-3 ATS · 7 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

5,188 miles - ranked 104th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 5,188 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 05,188 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1UAlbanyHome0 mi
Week 2Florida International1,192 mi2,385 mi
Week 3Penn State158 mi2,701 mi
Week 4Robert MorrisHome2,701 mi
Week 5Western MichiganHome2,701 mi
Week 6Toledo264 mi3,230 mi
Week 7MassachusettsHome3,230 mi
Week 8Bowling GreenHome3,230 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Miami (OH)392 mi4,014 mi
Week 11Ball State394 mi4,801 mi
Week 12Central MichiganHome4,801 mi
Week 13Akron193 mi5,188 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Buffalo Bulls Season Outlook

Quarterback situation in flux after Week 1

The preseason plan was for redshirt freshman Jason Wright to take over at quarterback, but in the opener against UAlbany it was Elijah Holmes who took the snaps and threw for 189 yards and three touchdowns, all to Chance Morrow. Holmes completed 26 of 47 passes, and while the numbers were not explosive, he managed the game well enough to win. The fact that Wright did not start raises questions about the quarterback pecking order going forward. Coach Pete Lembo has not publicly committed to a starter, so the competition may remain open as the Bulls head into MAC play. Whoever is under center will need to be more efficient than the 47 pass attempts against UAlbany suggest, especially with a rebuilt offensive line.

Offensive line and run game are early concerns

Buffalo entered the season with only one returning starter on the offensive line, and that inexperience showed in Week 1. The Bulls could not establish a consistent run game, and the offense leaned heavily on the pass, with 47 attempts against UAlbany. Terrance Shelton Jr. and Messiah Burch, the two most experienced backs, were not factors, and the line struggled to create push. The Bulls managed just 21 points against an FCS opponent, which is below expectations for a team that was an 18.5-point favorite. If the line does not improve quickly, the offense will struggle to sustain drives against MAC defenses that are more physical than UAlbany's front.

Defense bends but makes key stops

The defense lost coordinator Joe Bowen and All-American linebacker Red Murdock, but the unit showed resilience in the opener. The secondary, which was a top-25 pass defense last season, held UAlbany to 17 points, and the game ended with a goal-line stand. Virginia transfer Stevie Bracey made the decisive tackle on fourth down, showing he can be a playmaker in the middle of the field. However, the Bulls allowed UAlbany to move the ball and take a lead in the third quarter, and the front seven did not generate consistent pressure. The defensive line, with only Cornell Evans returning as a starter, remains a work in progress. If the pass rush does not improve, the experienced secondary will be tested more often in conference play.

Chance Morrow emerges as the top receiving threat

With two All-MAC receivers gone to the transfer portal, the receiving corps was a major question mark. Chance Morrow answered that in Week 1 by catching seven passes for 48 yards and three touchdowns, all from Holmes. At 6-foot-4, Morrow gives the Bulls a red-zone target who can win contested catches, as he showed on a sideline grab that set up a score. Jasaiah Gathings, the team's leading returning receiver, was not a factor in the opener, which is a concern. If defenses focus on Morrow, other receivers like Dwayne Early Jr. and Tyrell Simmons Jr. will need to step up. For now, Morrow is the clear go-to option in the passing game.

Road test at FIU will reveal true progress

Buffalo's 1-0 start is encouraging, but the win over UAlbany was far from convincing, and the Bulls failed to cover a large spread. Now they hit the road for the first time, traveling nearly 1,200 miles to face Florida International, a team that is 0-1 but is favored by 10.5 points. The market gives Buffalo only a 22% chance to win, reflecting the concerns about the offensive line and the overall roster overhaul. This game will be a much stiffer test than UAlbany, and it will show whether the Bulls can compete against a team from a similar level. A loss would not end their season, but it would raise doubts about their ability to reach a bowl game in Pete Lembo's third year. The MAC schedule is still ahead, and Buffalo will need to show significant improvement on both lines to contend.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Buffalo Bulls's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Buffalo Bulls is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.

What is Buffalo Bulls's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Buffalo Bulls holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -14.7, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Buffalo Bulls's home field advantage rating?

Buffalo Bulls's home field advantage rating is 2.3 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Buffalo Bulls's 2026 win total?

Buffalo Bulls's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 5.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +135 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Buffalo Bulls travel in 2026?

Buffalo Bulls travels 5,188 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 104th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Buffalo Bulls: 1-0 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -14.7 (2026 records).