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Liberty Flames is 6-1 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +2.3. Liberty Flames's games are hitting the under at 71% this season (5-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The Liberty Flames host Florida International next in Week 9.
In Week 8 of 2026 the Liberty Flames Power Rating of +2.3 is 2.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Liberty Flames have logged 1,893 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,646 miles, ranking 76th heaviest in the FBS.
Ethan Vasko QB, Deshawn Purdie QB, Jaylen Henderson QB, Jamari Person WR
Derrell Farrar LB
Tyler Black K, Chase Reeves K, Sam Crossan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Week 10 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Week 12 | 4-6 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 4-7 | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 3-9 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -7.9 in the preseason and finished +2.3 after week 8, a move of +10.2 points. High +2.9 (week 7), low -7.9 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.5 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Gardner-Webb | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Delaware | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Sam Houston | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Kennesaw State | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Florida International | 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 7-2 | 4-4-1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Western Kentucky | 3 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Ball State.
Week 06,646 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | James Madison | 76 mi | 153 mi |
| Week 2 | Gardner-Webb | Home | 153 mi |
| Week 3 | Ball State | Home | 153 mi |
| Week 4 | Coastal Carolina | 246 mi | 644 mi |
| Week 5 | Delaware | 245 mi | 1,133 mi |
| Week 6 | Sam Houston | Home | 1,133 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Kennesaw State | 380 mi | 1,893 mi |
| Week 9 | Florida International | Home | 1,893 mi |
| Week 10 | New Mexico State | 1,600 mi | 5,092 mi |
| Week 11 | Middle Tennessee | Home | 5,092 mi |
| Week 12 | Western Kentucky | Home | 5,092 mi |
| Week 13 | Missouri State | 777 mi | 6,646 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Liberty opened with a 13-20 loss at James Madison, then needed a late 54-yard touchdown from Jaylen Henderson to Darius Copeland to survive Gardner-Webb 24-23 at home. Since then, the Flames have rattled off five straight wins, including a 51-15 rout of Ball State, a 34-17 comeback at Coastal Carolina, a 30-14 win at Delaware in the Conference USA opener, and a 35-3 home romp over Sam Houston. At 5-1 overall and 2-0 in league play, Liberty has flipped its season and now sits with a positive power rating (0.9) after starting at -7.7.
The preseason quarterback battle was a major question mark, with Ethan Vasko returning from shoulder surgery and transfers Deshawn Purdie and Jaylen Henderson competing. Purdie has emerged as the starter and steadying force, throwing for 230 yards at James Madison, 211 yards and three touchdowns against Ball State, 216 yards and two scores at Coastal Carolina, and 157 yards at Delaware. He has also shown mobility, rushing for 57 yards against Sam Houston. Vasko has contributed in short-yardage situations, including an 8-yard touchdown sneak on fourth down at Coastal Carolina, and Henderson delivered the game-winning touchdown pass against Gardner-Webb. The room is now a strength rather than a liability.
After ranking first nationally in rushing in 2023 and fourth in 2024, Liberty slipped to 194 yards per game last season. The offensive line returned four starters and was expected to be the strength of the offense, and the run game has finally taken off. Kam Davis rushed for 166 yards and a touchdown at Coastal Carolina, then added 147 yards and two scores at Delaware. Against Sam Houston, the Flames piled up 297 yards on the ground, with Jaylon Coleman leading the way with 92 yards on seven carries and Vasko scoring twice on the ground. The emergence of Davis and Coleman, along with Purdie's mobility, has restored the identity that made Liberty's offense so potent in previous years.
New defensive coordinator Shawn Quinn inherited a unit that ranked near the bottom of Conference USA against the run in 2025, and early returns were mixed. Gardner-Webb's Randy Young ripped off a 65-yard touchdown run and averaged nearly 19 yards per carry on four attempts, and the Flames also allowed a 35-yard fumble return for a score in that near-loss. However, the defense has not allowed a fourth-quarter touchdown in any game this season and has tightened up during the winning streak. Against Sam Houston, Liberty forced three turnovers on downs in the second half and allowed just a field goal. Linebacker Derrell Farrar, who led the team with 71 tackles last season, remains a key piece. The pass rush, a problem for three years under Chadwell, is still a work in progress, but the overall trajectory is positive.
Liberty's five-game win streak has come against opponents with a combined record of 6-18, and the Flames have covered the spread in four of their last five games after failing to cover in their first two. The offense has scored 30 or more points in four straight games, and the defense has allowed 17 or fewer in each of the last four. The remaining schedule features Kennesaw State (1-5) next, followed by other Conference USA foes. The key question is whether Liberty can maintain this level of play and avoid the close calls that plagued it early in the season. The running game and Purdie's efficiency have raised the ceiling, but the run defense and pass rush must continue to improve for the Flames to contend for a conference title.
Liberty Flames is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.
Liberty Flames holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +2.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Liberty Flames's home field advantage rating is 2.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Liberty Flames's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -105 over and -125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Liberty Flames travels 6,646 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 76th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Liberty Flames: 6-1 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +2.3 (2026 records).