Liberty Flames

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Liberty Flames is 6-1 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +2.3. Liberty Flames's games are hitting the under at 71% this season (5-2), a notable trend for totals bettors. The Liberty Flames host Florida International next in Week 9.

Conference: Conference USA
Stadium: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Power Rating (most current): +2.3
HFA Rating:2.4 pts
2026 Win Total:8.5
2026 Record: 6-1
2026 ATS: 5-2
2026 O/U: 2-5

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the Liberty Flames Power Rating of +2.3 is 2.3 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Liberty Flames have logged 1,893 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,646 miles, ranking 76th heaviest in the FBS.

Liberty Flames Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJamey Chadwell
Tenure3 seasons
Record at school25-13
Career record123-70 (16 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorNewland Isaac
Defensive coordinatorShawn Quinn

Offense

Ethan Vasko QB, Deshawn Purdie QB, Jaylen Henderson QB, Jamari Person WR

Defense

Derrell Farrar LB

Special teams

Tyler Black K, Chase Reeves K, Sam Crossan P

2025 Season in Review

Record4-8 ATS3-9 O/U6-6
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-00-10-1
Week 21-10-21-1
Week 31-20-31-2
Week 41-30-41-3
Week 51-41-41-4
Week 72-42-41-5
Week 83-42-52-5
Week 104-43-53-5
Week 114-53-63-6
Week 124-63-74-6
Week 134-73-85-6
Week 144-83-96-6

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -7.9 in the preseason and finished +2.3 after week 8, a move of +10.2 points. High +2.9 (week 7), low -7.9 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -7.9 to +2.3.

PreW8

Liberty Flames SP+ Profile

Offence+25.566 of 138higher is better
Defence+31.7103 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.287 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±1.7 pts
HFA measured+1.9 pts
HFA applied+2.4 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.5 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
James Madison10-10-1
Gardner-Webb11-00-1
Coastal Carolina11-01-0
Delaware11-01-0
Sam Houston21-10-2
Kennesaw State20-20-2
Florida International43-11-3
New Mexico State97-24-4-1
Middle Tennessee33-02-1
Western Kentucky33-03-0
Missouri State10-10-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Ball State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home40-1024-25-1 ATS · 50 games
On the road22-2221-23 ATS · 44 games
Neutral site3-34-2 ATS · 6 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

6,646 miles - ranked 76th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 6,646 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 06,646 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1James Madison76 mi153 mi
Week 2Gardner-WebbHome153 mi
Week 3Ball StateHome153 mi
Week 4Coastal Carolina246 mi644 mi
Week 5Delaware245 mi1,133 mi
Week 6Sam HoustonHome1,133 mi
Week 7-Bye
Week 8Kennesaw State380 mi1,893 mi
Week 9Florida InternationalHome1,893 mi
Week 10New Mexico State1,600 mi5,092 mi
Week 11Middle TennesseeHome5,092 mi
Week 12Western KentuckyHome5,092 mi
Week 13Missouri State777 mi6,646 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Liberty Flames Season Outlook

From shaky start to five-game win streak

Liberty opened with a 13-20 loss at James Madison, then needed a late 54-yard touchdown from Jaylen Henderson to Darius Copeland to survive Gardner-Webb 24-23 at home. Since then, the Flames have rattled off five straight wins, including a 51-15 rout of Ball State, a 34-17 comeback at Coastal Carolina, a 30-14 win at Delaware in the Conference USA opener, and a 35-3 home romp over Sam Houston. At 5-1 overall and 2-0 in league play, Liberty has flipped its season and now sits with a positive power rating (0.9) after starting at -7.7.

Deshawn Purdie stabilizes the quarterback room

The preseason quarterback battle was a major question mark, with Ethan Vasko returning from shoulder surgery and transfers Deshawn Purdie and Jaylen Henderson competing. Purdie has emerged as the starter and steadying force, throwing for 230 yards at James Madison, 211 yards and three touchdowns against Ball State, 216 yards and two scores at Coastal Carolina, and 157 yards at Delaware. He has also shown mobility, rushing for 57 yards against Sam Houston. Vasko has contributed in short-yardage situations, including an 8-yard touchdown sneak on fourth down at Coastal Carolina, and Henderson delivered the game-winning touchdown pass against Gardner-Webb. The room is now a strength rather than a liability.

Rushing attack rediscovered behind veteran offensive line

After ranking first nationally in rushing in 2023 and fourth in 2024, Liberty slipped to 194 yards per game last season. The offensive line returned four starters and was expected to be the strength of the offense, and the run game has finally taken off. Kam Davis rushed for 166 yards and a touchdown at Coastal Carolina, then added 147 yards and two scores at Delaware. Against Sam Houston, the Flames piled up 297 yards on the ground, with Jaylon Coleman leading the way with 92 yards on seven carries and Vasko scoring twice on the ground. The emergence of Davis and Coleman, along with Purdie's mobility, has restored the identity that made Liberty's offense so potent in previous years.

Defense improving but run defense remains a concern

New defensive coordinator Shawn Quinn inherited a unit that ranked near the bottom of Conference USA against the run in 2025, and early returns were mixed. Gardner-Webb's Randy Young ripped off a 65-yard touchdown run and averaged nearly 19 yards per carry on four attempts, and the Flames also allowed a 35-yard fumble return for a score in that near-loss. However, the defense has not allowed a fourth-quarter touchdown in any game this season and has tightened up during the winning streak. Against Sam Houston, Liberty forced three turnovers on downs in the second half and allowed just a field goal. Linebacker Derrell Farrar, who led the team with 71 tackles last season, remains a key piece. The pass rush, a problem for three years under Chadwell, is still a work in progress, but the overall trajectory is positive.

What to watch: Can Liberty keep dominating weaker opponents?

Liberty's five-game win streak has come against opponents with a combined record of 6-18, and the Flames have covered the spread in four of their last five games after failing to cover in their first two. The offense has scored 30 or more points in four straight games, and the defense has allowed 17 or fewer in each of the last four. The remaining schedule features Kennesaw State (1-5) next, followed by other Conference USA foes. The key question is whether Liberty can maintain this level of play and avoid the close calls that plagued it early in the season. The running game and Purdie's efficiency have raised the ceiling, but the run defense and pass rush must continue to improve for the Flames to contend for a conference title.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Liberty Flames's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Liberty Flames is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.

What is Liberty Flames's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Liberty Flames holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +2.3, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Liberty Flames's home field advantage rating?

Liberty Flames's home field advantage rating is 2.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Liberty Flames's 2026 win total?

Liberty Flames's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -105 over and -125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Liberty Flames travel in 2026?

Liberty Flames travels 6,646 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 76th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Liberty Flames: 6-1 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +2.3 (2026 records).