Liberty Flames is 0-1 on the season, 0-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -7.1. Liberty Flames enters the season with a power rating of -7.1, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Liberty Flames host Gardner-Webb next in Week 2. In 2025, Liberty Flames went 4-8 overall, 3-9 against the spread, and 6-6 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Liberty Flames Power Rating of -7.1 is 7.1 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Liberty Flames have logged 153 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 6,646 miles, ranking 76th heaviest in the FBS.
Ethan Vasko QB, Deshawn Purdie QB, Jaylen Henderson QB, Jamari Person WR
Derrell Farrar LB
Tyler Black K, Chase Reeves K, Sam Crossan P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Week 4 | 1-3 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Week 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Week 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Week 8 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Week 10 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Week 12 | 4-6 | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 4-7 | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 4-8 | 3-9 | 6-6 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -7.9 in the preseason and finished -7.1 after week 2, a move of +0.8 points. High -7.1 (week 2), low -7.9 (the preseason).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.5 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Gardner-Webb | 1 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Coastal Carolina | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Delaware | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Sam Houston | 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Kennesaw State | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Florida International | 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 7-2 | 4-4-1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Western Kentucky | 3 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Missouri State | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Ball State.
Week 06,646 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | James Madison | 76 mi | 153 mi |
| Week 2 | Gardner-Webb | Home | 153 mi |
| Week 3 | Ball State | Home | 153 mi |
| Week 4 | Coastal Carolina | 246 mi | 644 mi |
| Week 5 | Delaware | 245 mi | 1,133 mi |
| Week 6 | Sam Houston | Home | 1,133 mi |
| Week 7 | - | Bye | |
| Week 8 | Kennesaw State | 380 mi | 1,893 mi |
| Week 9 | Florida International | Home | 1,893 mi |
| Week 10 | New Mexico State | 1,600 mi | 5,092 mi |
| Week 11 | Middle Tennessee | Home | 5,092 mi |
| Week 12 | Western Kentucky | Home | 5,092 mi |
| Week 13 | Missouri State | 777 mi | 6,646 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Liberty opened 2026 with a 13-20 defeat at James Madison, and the quarterback situation remains unsettled. Deshawn Purdie, a Wake Forest transfer, started and threw for 230 yards with a touchdown, but the offense managed only 13 points. Ethan Vasko, last year's starter who threw 12 interceptions in 2025, is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. Jaylen Henderson, another transfer from West Virginia, has yet to see meaningful action. The lack of a clear, consistent leader under center was a major factor in the loss, and it remains the biggest question mark for the Flames as they move forward.
Liberty's rushing attack, which led the nation in 2023 and ranked fourth in 2024, slipped to 194 yards per game last season. Against James Madison, the ground game did not show signs of a resurgence, as the team relied on a group of five transfer running backs. The offensive line returns four starters and should be a strength, but the lack of continuity in the backfield and the drop in production from previous years suggest the Flames are not yet back to their old form. Establishing a reliable run game will be critical for taking pressure off the quarterback and controlling games.
Shawn Quinn took over as defensive coordinator after Liberty ranked near the bottom of Conference USA in rushing defense last season. The unit showed some fight in the opener, holding James Madison to 20 points, but it still allowed key plays, including a late fourth-down conversion that sealed the game. Linebacker Derrell Farrar, who led the team with 71 tackles in 2025, is the anchor of the front seven. The pass rush, which has been a weakness for three years, did not generate consistent pressure against the Dukes. The secondary is also being rebuilt under new coach Cory Peoples, so this defense remains a work in progress.
Liberty entered the season needing to replace both its placekicker and punter, as Jay Billingsley and Max Morgan exhausted their eligibility. Tyler Black, who transferred from Wake Forest but lost the kicking job last year, is competing with Division II transfer Chase Reeves. Reeves is also in the mix at punter with Sam Crossan. In a tight 13-20 loss, special teams can make a difference, and the Flames have yet to establish a clear starter at either spot. Consistency in the kicking game will be important in close conference matchups later in the season.
After a 4-8 season, Liberty's first losing campaign in 20 years, head coach Jamey Chadwell made significant staff changes, including hiring Quinn and Peoples. The Flames also brought in multiple transfers at key positions, including quarterback and running back. The opener against James Madison, a team coming off a 12-2 season and College Football Playoff appearance, was a tough test, and Liberty showed competitiveness but fell short. With a home game against Gardner-Webb next, the Flames have a chance to regroup. The rest of the season will reveal whether the new pieces and coaching staff can restore the program's toughness and offensive explosiveness, but early signs suggest this is a team still finding its identity.
Liberty Flames is 0-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 0% of games.
Liberty Flames holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -7.1, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Liberty Flames's home field advantage rating is 2.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Liberty Flames's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 8.5 wins, priced at -105 over and -125 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Liberty Flames travels 6,646 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 76th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Liberty Flames: 0-1 overall, 0-1 ATS, power rating -7.1 (2026 records).
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