UMass Minutemen

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UMass Minutemen is 4-4 on the season, 4-3-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -15.0. UMass Minutemen is covering at just 37% since the start of last season (7-12-1), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The UMass Minutemen host Ball State next in Week 10.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: McGuirk Stadium, Hadley, MA
Power Rating (most current): -15.0
HFA Rating:2.1 pts
2026 Win Total:2.5
2026 Record: 4-4
2026 ATS: 4-3-1
2026 O/U: 4-4

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 8 of 2026 the UMass Minutemen Power Rating of -15.0 is 15.0 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UMass Minutemen have logged 6,161 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,456 miles, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.

UMass Minutemen Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJoe Harasymiak
Tenure1 season
Record at school0-12
Career record20-27 (4 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorMax Warner
Defensive coordinatorJared Keyte

Offense

Williams Watson III QB, T.Y. Harding WR, Joseph Griffin Jr. WR, Max Dowling TE, Reece Adkins TE, Jordan Washington RB, Brock Taylor OL, Greg Knox OL, Zachary Franks OL

Defense

Joshua Nobles EDGE, TJ Magee CB, Tyler Martin LB, Timmy Hinspeter LB, Zeraun Daniel S, Kendall Bournes S, Isaiah Reed CB

Special teams

Derek Morris K, Edward Phillipson P

2025 Season in Review

Record0-12 ATS3-9 O/U9-3
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-11-0
Week 20-20-22-0
Week 30-30-33-0
Week 50-41-33-1
Week 60-51-43-2
Week 70-61-53-3
Week 80-72-54-3
Week 90-82-65-3
Week 110-92-76-3
Week 120-102-87-3
Week 130-113-88-3
Week 140-123-99-3

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -32.4 in the preseason and finished -15.0 after week 8, a move of +17.4 points. High -14.1 (week 5), low -32.4 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from -32.4 to -15.0.

PreW8

UMass Minutemen SP+ Profile

Offence+9.6138 of 138higher is better
Defence+40.1136 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.5126 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.3 pts
HFA measured+1.0 pts
HFA applied+2.1 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +1.0 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Rutgers10-10-1
Eastern Michigan40-43-1
Miami (OH)20-21-1
Buffalo30-31-2
UConn62-43-3
Toledo40-42-2
Akron21-11-1
Bowling Green10-10-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State, Ball State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home13-3920-32 ATS · 52 games
On the road4-5525-33-1 ATS · 59 games
Neutral site1-00-1 ATS · 1 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

8,456 miles - ranked 49th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 8,456 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 08,456 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Rutgers163 mi326 mi
Week 2Sacred HeartHome326 mi
Week 3StonehillHome326 mi
Week 4Sacramento State2,554 mi5,434 mi
Week 5Eastern MichiganHome5,434 mi
Week 6Miami (OH)Home5,434 mi
Week 7Buffalo321 mi6,076 mi
Week 8UConn43 mi6,161 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Ball StateHome6,161 mi
Week 11Toledo572 mi7,305 mi
Week 12AkronHome7,305 mi
Week 13Bowling Green576 mi8,456 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

UMass Minutemen Season Outlook

A historic start ends a 16-game skid

UMass opened 2026 by snapping the nation's longest losing streak with a 37-21 win at Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog. New quarterback Pop Watson III threw for 197 yards and three touchdowns, spreading 18 completions among seven receivers, and the Minutemen scored on seven of ten drives. They followed with double-digit home wins over Sacred Heart (37-10) and Stonehill (36-14), then won 35-6 at Sacramento State to reach 4-0 for the first time since 2007. The 56-player roster overhaul (30 transfers, 26 freshmen) has clearly raised the talent level.

MAC play exposes defensive and offensive line issues

The 4-0 start came against Rutgers (Power 4 but reeling), two FCS teams, and an FBS newcomer. Against MAC competition, UMass has lost three straight: 38-14 to Eastern Michigan at home, 20-19 to Miami (OH) at home, and 25-18 in overtime at Buffalo. The defense allowed 192 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Eastern Michigan and could not get off the field against Miami's balanced attack. The offense, which averaged 36.3 points in the first four games, has managed 14, 19, and 18 points in the three MAC losses. Quarterback Pop Watson III was injured in the Miami game and replaced by Logan Inagawa, who played well in relief (6-of-6 for 83 yards and a touchdown against Miami, 14-of-25 for 168 yards at Buffalo) but the offense has not been as explosive.

Turnover creation remains a defensive strength

The Minutemen forced five turnovers (four interceptions and a fumble) in the opener at Rutgers and have continued to generate takeaways. TJ Magee, back from injury, recovered a muffed punt to set up a short touchdown at Buffalo. The linebacker duo of Tyler Martin and Timmy Hinspeter has been productive and experienced, and the return of defensive end Joshua Nobles has bolstered the pass rush. However, the defense has been vulnerable against the run in MAC play, allowing Eastern Michigan to rush for 192 yards and Buffalo's Messiah Burch to gain a career-high 172 yards. Creating short fields has kept UMass competitive, but the unit needs to tighten up against balanced offenses.

Special teams are a mixed bag

Kicker Derek Morris has been reliable from long range (3-of-5 from 50-plus last season) but inconsistent in 2026. He missed two field goals at Buffalo before hitting a 53-yarder late in the fourth quarter to give UMass an 18-15 lead. Punter Edward Phillipson, an Australian, has taken over, and the return game features TJ Magee and T.Y. Harding, who scored on a 56-yard run against Stonehill. The muffed punt recovery by Magee at Buffalo was a key play, but the special teams also allowed a 71-yard kickoff return to set up a Buffalo field goal. Overall, the unit has been a net positive but has room for improvement.

What to watch: can UMass stop the slide?

The Minutemen are 4-3 and 1-3 in the MAC after three straight losses. The offense needs to find consistency against conference defenses, and the health of quarterback Pop Watson III is a major question. Logan Inagawa has shown poise in relief, but the running game (Jordan Washington, Curtis Kimmons IV) has been inconsistent. The defense must shore up its run fits to avoid being gashed by balanced MAC offenses. Upcoming games against UConn and other regional rivals offer chances to regain momentum, but the schedule remains challenging. The early-season promise has faded; UMass must prove it can compete week-to-week in the MAC.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is UMass Minutemen's against-the-spread record in 2026?

UMass Minutemen is 4-3-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.

What is UMass Minutemen's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

UMass Minutemen holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -15.0, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is UMass Minutemen's home field advantage rating?

UMass Minutemen's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is UMass Minutemen's 2026 win total?

UMass Minutemen's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 2.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does UMass Minutemen travel in 2026?

UMass Minutemen travels 8,456 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

UMass Minutemen: 4-4 overall, 4-3-1 ATS, power rating -15.0 (2026 records).