UMass Minutemen

By · Last updated

UMass Minutemen is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -22.8. UMass Minutemen enters the season with a power rating of -22.8, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The UMass Minutemen host Sacred Heart next in Week 2. In 2025, UMass Minutemen went 0-12 overall, 3-9 against the spread, and 9-3 on totals.

Conference: Mid-American Conference
Stadium: McGuirk Stadium, Hadley, MA
Power Rating (most current): -22.8
HFA Rating:2.1 pts
2026 Win Total:2.5
2026 Record: 1-0
2026 ATS: 1-0
2026 O/U: 1-0

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the UMass Minutemen Power Rating of -22.8 is 22.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UMass Minutemen have logged 326 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,456 miles, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.

UMass Minutemen Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachJoe Harasymiak
Tenure1 season
Record at school0-12
Career record20-27 (4 seasons)
Offensive coordinatorMax Warner
Defensive coordinatorJared Keyte

Offense

Williams Watson III QB, T.Y. Harding WR, Joseph Griffin Jr. WR, Max Dowling TE, Reece Adkins TE, Jordan Washington RB, Brock Taylor OL, Greg Knox OL, Zachary Franks OL

Defense

Joshua Nobles EDGE, TJ Magee CB, Tyler Martin LB, Timmy Hinspeter LB, Zeraun Daniel S, Kendall Bournes S, Isaiah Reed CB

Special teams

Derek Morris K, Edward Phillipson P

2025 Season in Review

Record0-12 ATS3-9 O/U9-3
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-11-0
Week 20-20-22-0
Week 30-30-33-0
Week 50-41-33-1
Week 60-51-43-2
Week 70-61-53-3
Week 80-72-54-3
Week 90-82-65-3
Week 110-92-76-3
Week 120-102-87-3
Week 130-113-88-3
Week 140-123-99-3

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened -32.4 in the preseason and finished -22.8 after week 2, a move of +9.6 points. High -22.8 (week 2), low -32.4 (the preseason).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 4 points, from -32.4 to -22.8.

PreW2

UMass Minutemen SP+ Profile

Offence+9.6138 of 138higher is better
Defence+40.1136 of 138lower is better
Special teams-0.5126 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±2.3 pts
HFA measured+1.0 pts
HFA applied+2.1 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +1.0 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Rutgers10-10-1
Eastern Michigan40-43-1
Miami (OH)20-21-1
Buffalo30-31-2
UConn62-43-3
Toledo40-42-2
Akron21-11-1
Bowling Green10-10-1

No meeting on record since 2016: Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State, Ball State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home13-3920-32 ATS · 52 games
On the road4-5525-33-1 ATS · 59 games
Neutral site1-00-1 ATS · 1 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

8,456 miles - ranked 49th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 8,456 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 08,456 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Rutgers163 mi326 mi
Week 2Sacred HeartHome326 mi
Week 3StonehillHome326 mi
Week 4Sacramento State2,554 mi5,434 mi
Week 5Eastern MichiganHome5,434 mi
Week 6Miami (OH)Home5,434 mi
Week 7Buffalo321 mi6,076 mi
Week 8UConn43 mi6,161 mi
Week 9-Bye
Week 10Ball StateHome6,161 mi
Week 11Toledo572 mi7,305 mi
Week 12AkronHome7,305 mi
Week 13Bowling Green576 mi8,456 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

UMass Minutemen Season Outlook

Historic Win Ends Losing Streak

UMass opened the season with a stunning 37-21 road victory over Rutgers, snapping the nation's longest active losing streak at 16 games. The Minutemen built a 24-7 halftime lead and never looked back, scoring in seven of their 10 drives. This was their first win against an FBS opponent since 2023 and their first halftime lead over a power conference school since 2017. The victory also marked the program's biggest win since joining the FBS in 2012, and it came in head coach Joe Harasymiak's home state of New Jersey, where he previously served as Rutgers' defensive coordinator.

Pop Watson III Ignites the Offense

Transfer quarterback Williams 'Pop' Watson III, a Springfield native who came from Virginia Tech, was the catalyst for the offensive explosion. He threw for 197 yards and three touchdowns while adding 40 rushing yards on six carries. Watson completed passes to seven different receivers, showing the kind of distribution that was sorely missing from an offense that ranked last in the nation in scoring (11.1 ppg) and total yards (247.5 ypg) in 2025. His high school teammate Joseph Griffin Jr., who transferred from Boston College, caught one of the touchdown passes, and Elijah Faulkner hauled in two scores. The offense's efficiency was a dramatic departure from last season's struggles.

Roster Overhaul Pays Immediate Dividends

The Minutemen entered the season with 56 new players, including 30 transfers and 26 freshmen, and that overhaul was evident in the opener. The new-look offense, coordinated by Max Warner, who previously coached All-America tight end Harold Fannin Jr. at Bowling Green, showed balance and creativity. The defense, despite allowing three touchdown catches to Rutgers' star receiver KJ Duff, forced five turnovers (four interceptions and a fumble recovery) and held the Scarlet Knights to 21 points. Key returning players like linebacker Tyler Martin, who had 104 tackles last season, and defensive end Joshua Nobles, who missed all of 2025 with injury, helped stabilize a unit that was decimated by injuries a year ago.

Skeptics Remain, But Momentum Is Real

Despite the impressive win, the Minutemen were massive underdogs (the market gave them just a 2% chance to win) and Rutgers was coming off a season where its defense allowed at least 30 points in eight of 12 games. The Scarlet Knights also started 10 new defensive players, so some of UMass's offensive success may have been aided by Rutgers' own issues. Still, the Minutemen covered the 29.5-point spread and hit the over, signaling that this team is far more competitive than the one that lost by an average of 26.8 points during its 16-game skid. The challenge now is sustaining this level of play against a more manageable schedule that includes FCS opponents Sacred Heart and Stonehill, as well as FBS newcomer Sacramento State.

Health and Consistency Are Key Going Forward

The biggest question for UMass is whether they can stay healthy and maintain the offensive rhythm they found in Week 1. Last season, injuries to key players like wide receiver T.Y. Harding and cornerback TJ Magee derailed the team. Both are back, and Magee also returns punts, adding a special teams threat. The offensive line, which was revamped with transfers like left tackle Greg Knox and the return of right tackle Zachary Franks from injury, held up well against Rutgers. If Watson can continue to spread the ball and the defense can force turnovers, the Minutemen have a realistic path to their first winning season in years. The upcoming home game against Sacred Heart offers a chance to build on the momentum and prove that the Rutgers result was no fluke.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is UMass Minutemen's against-the-spread record in 2026?

UMass Minutemen is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.

What is UMass Minutemen's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

UMass Minutemen holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -22.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is UMass Minutemen's home field advantage rating?

UMass Minutemen's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is UMass Minutemen's 2026 win total?

UMass Minutemen's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 2.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does UMass Minutemen travel in 2026?

UMass Minutemen travels 8,456 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

UMass Minutemen: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -22.8 (2026 records).