UMass Minutemen is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -22.8. UMass Minutemen enters the season with a power rating of -22.8, placing them below average relative to the FBS midpoint. The UMass Minutemen host Sacred Heart next in Week 2. In 2025, UMass Minutemen went 0-12 overall, 3-9 against the spread, and 9-3 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the UMass Minutemen Power Rating of -22.8 is 22.8 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UMass Minutemen have logged 326 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,456 miles, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.
Williams Watson III QB, T.Y. Harding WR, Joseph Griffin Jr. WR, Max Dowling TE, Reece Adkins TE, Jordan Washington RB, Brock Taylor OL, Greg Knox OL, Zachary Franks OL
Joshua Nobles EDGE, TJ Magee CB, Tyler Martin LB, Timmy Hinspeter LB, Zeraun Daniel S, Kendall Bournes S, Isaiah Reed CB
Derek Morris K, Edward Phillipson P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Week 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 0-5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 0-6 | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 0-7 | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 0-8 | 2-6 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 0-9 | 2-7 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 0-10 | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 0-11 | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Week 14 | 0-12 | 3-9 | 9-3 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -32.4 in the preseason and finished -22.8 after week 2, a move of +9.6 points. High -22.8 (week 2), low -32.4 (the preseason).
PreW2
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +1.0 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Miami (OH) | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| UConn | 6 | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Toledo | 4 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Akron | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bowling Green | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State, Ball State.
Week 08,456 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Rutgers | 163 mi | 326 mi |
| Week 2 | Sacred Heart | Home | 326 mi |
| Week 3 | Stonehill | Home | 326 mi |
| Week 4 | Sacramento State | 2,554 mi | 5,434 mi |
| Week 5 | Eastern Michigan | Home | 5,434 mi |
| Week 6 | Miami (OH) | Home | 5,434 mi |
| Week 7 | Buffalo | 321 mi | 6,076 mi |
| Week 8 | UConn | 43 mi | 6,161 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Ball State | Home | 6,161 mi |
| Week 11 | Toledo | 572 mi | 7,305 mi |
| Week 12 | Akron | Home | 7,305 mi |
| Week 13 | Bowling Green | 576 mi | 8,456 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
UMass opened the season with a stunning 37-21 road victory over Rutgers, snapping the nation's longest active losing streak at 16 games. The Minutemen built a 24-7 halftime lead and never looked back, scoring in seven of their 10 drives. This was their first win against an FBS opponent since 2023 and their first halftime lead over a power conference school since 2017. The victory also marked the program's biggest win since joining the FBS in 2012, and it came in head coach Joe Harasymiak's home state of New Jersey, where he previously served as Rutgers' defensive coordinator.
Transfer quarterback Williams 'Pop' Watson III, a Springfield native who came from Virginia Tech, was the catalyst for the offensive explosion. He threw for 197 yards and three touchdowns while adding 40 rushing yards on six carries. Watson completed passes to seven different receivers, showing the kind of distribution that was sorely missing from an offense that ranked last in the nation in scoring (11.1 ppg) and total yards (247.5 ypg) in 2025. His high school teammate Joseph Griffin Jr., who transferred from Boston College, caught one of the touchdown passes, and Elijah Faulkner hauled in two scores. The offense's efficiency was a dramatic departure from last season's struggles.
The Minutemen entered the season with 56 new players, including 30 transfers and 26 freshmen, and that overhaul was evident in the opener. The new-look offense, coordinated by Max Warner, who previously coached All-America tight end Harold Fannin Jr. at Bowling Green, showed balance and creativity. The defense, despite allowing three touchdown catches to Rutgers' star receiver KJ Duff, forced five turnovers (four interceptions and a fumble recovery) and held the Scarlet Knights to 21 points. Key returning players like linebacker Tyler Martin, who had 104 tackles last season, and defensive end Joshua Nobles, who missed all of 2025 with injury, helped stabilize a unit that was decimated by injuries a year ago.
Despite the impressive win, the Minutemen were massive underdogs (the market gave them just a 2% chance to win) and Rutgers was coming off a season where its defense allowed at least 30 points in eight of 12 games. The Scarlet Knights also started 10 new defensive players, so some of UMass's offensive success may have been aided by Rutgers' own issues. Still, the Minutemen covered the 29.5-point spread and hit the over, signaling that this team is far more competitive than the one that lost by an average of 26.8 points during its 16-game skid. The challenge now is sustaining this level of play against a more manageable schedule that includes FCS opponents Sacred Heart and Stonehill, as well as FBS newcomer Sacramento State.
The biggest question for UMass is whether they can stay healthy and maintain the offensive rhythm they found in Week 1. Last season, injuries to key players like wide receiver T.Y. Harding and cornerback TJ Magee derailed the team. Both are back, and Magee also returns punts, adding a special teams threat. The offensive line, which was revamped with transfers like left tackle Greg Knox and the return of right tackle Zachary Franks from injury, held up well against Rutgers. If Watson can continue to spread the ball and the defense can force turnovers, the Minutemen have a realistic path to their first winning season in years. The upcoming home game against Sacred Heart offers a chance to build on the momentum and prove that the Rutgers result was no fluke.
UMass Minutemen is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
UMass Minutemen holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -22.8, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
UMass Minutemen's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
UMass Minutemen's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 2.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
UMass Minutemen travels 8,456 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
UMass Minutemen: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating -22.8 (2026 records).