26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
Final
6
31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
38
Final
45
14
Final
42
24
Final
20
13
Final
6
20
Final
59
49
Final
51
23
Final
52
24
Final
37
38
Final
17
24
Final
25
28
Final
27
20
Final
35
10
Final
21
24
Final
27
56
Final
21
31
Final
39
24
Final
31
20
Final
31
49
Final
39
10
Final
13
23
Final
15
10
Final
28
17
Final
34
49
Final
27
17
Final
28
20
Final
24
21
Final
14
13
Final
28
31
Final
35
0
Final
26
31
Final
10
49
Final
56
20
Final
16
24
Final
57
32
Final
38
@
17
Final
20
7
Final
24
@
17
Final
34
@
@
@
@
UMass Minutemen is 4-4 on the season, 4-3-1 against the spread, and holds a power rating of -15.0. UMass Minutemen is covering at just 37% since the start of last season (7-12-1), below the FBS average, a notable trend for spread bettors. The UMass Minutemen host Ball State next in Week 10.
In Week 8 of 2026 the UMass Minutemen Power Rating of -15.0 is 15.0 points below the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. UMass Minutemen have logged 6,161 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,456 miles, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.
Williams Watson III QB, T.Y. Harding WR, Joseph Griffin Jr. WR, Max Dowling TE, Reece Adkins TE, Jordan Washington RB, Brock Taylor OL, Greg Knox OL, Zachary Franks OL
Joshua Nobles EDGE, TJ Magee CB, Tyler Martin LB, Timmy Hinspeter LB, Zeraun Daniel S, Kendall Bournes S, Isaiah Reed CB
Derek Morris K, Edward Phillipson P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Week 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Week 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Week 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Week 6 | 0-5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Week 7 | 0-6 | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Week 8 | 0-7 | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Week 9 | 0-8 | 2-6 | 5-3 |
| Week 11 | 0-9 | 2-7 | 6-3 |
| Week 12 | 0-10 | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Week 13 | 0-11 | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Week 14 | 0-12 | 3-9 | 9-3 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened -32.4 in the preseason and finished -15.0 after week 8, a move of +17.4 points. High -14.1 (week 5), low -32.4 (the preseason).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +1.0 is regressed to +2.1 before it is applied, a difference of 1.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Miami (OH) | 2 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| UConn | 6 | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Toledo | 4 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Akron | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bowling Green | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State, Ball State.
Week 08,456 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Rutgers | 163 mi | 326 mi |
| Week 2 | Sacred Heart | Home | 326 mi |
| Week 3 | Stonehill | Home | 326 mi |
| Week 4 | Sacramento State | 2,554 mi | 5,434 mi |
| Week 5 | Eastern Michigan | Home | 5,434 mi |
| Week 6 | Miami (OH) | Home | 5,434 mi |
| Week 7 | Buffalo | 321 mi | 6,076 mi |
| Week 8 | UConn | 43 mi | 6,161 mi |
| Week 9 | - | Bye | |
| Week 10 | Ball State | Home | 6,161 mi |
| Week 11 | Toledo | 572 mi | 7,305 mi |
| Week 12 | Akron | Home | 7,305 mi |
| Week 13 | Bowling Green | 576 mi | 8,456 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
UMass opened 2026 by snapping the nation's longest losing streak with a 37-21 win at Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog. New quarterback Pop Watson III threw for 197 yards and three touchdowns, spreading 18 completions among seven receivers, and the Minutemen scored on seven of ten drives. They followed with double-digit home wins over Sacred Heart (37-10) and Stonehill (36-14), then won 35-6 at Sacramento State to reach 4-0 for the first time since 2007. The 56-player roster overhaul (30 transfers, 26 freshmen) has clearly raised the talent level.
The 4-0 start came against Rutgers (Power 4 but reeling), two FCS teams, and an FBS newcomer. Against MAC competition, UMass has lost three straight: 38-14 to Eastern Michigan at home, 20-19 to Miami (OH) at home, and 25-18 in overtime at Buffalo. The defense allowed 192 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Eastern Michigan and could not get off the field against Miami's balanced attack. The offense, which averaged 36.3 points in the first four games, has managed 14, 19, and 18 points in the three MAC losses. Quarterback Pop Watson III was injured in the Miami game and replaced by Logan Inagawa, who played well in relief (6-of-6 for 83 yards and a touchdown against Miami, 14-of-25 for 168 yards at Buffalo) but the offense has not been as explosive.
The Minutemen forced five turnovers (four interceptions and a fumble) in the opener at Rutgers and have continued to generate takeaways. TJ Magee, back from injury, recovered a muffed punt to set up a short touchdown at Buffalo. The linebacker duo of Tyler Martin and Timmy Hinspeter has been productive and experienced, and the return of defensive end Joshua Nobles has bolstered the pass rush. However, the defense has been vulnerable against the run in MAC play, allowing Eastern Michigan to rush for 192 yards and Buffalo's Messiah Burch to gain a career-high 172 yards. Creating short fields has kept UMass competitive, but the unit needs to tighten up against balanced offenses.
Kicker Derek Morris has been reliable from long range (3-of-5 from 50-plus last season) but inconsistent in 2026. He missed two field goals at Buffalo before hitting a 53-yarder late in the fourth quarter to give UMass an 18-15 lead. Punter Edward Phillipson, an Australian, has taken over, and the return game features TJ Magee and T.Y. Harding, who scored on a 56-yard run against Stonehill. The muffed punt recovery by Magee at Buffalo was a key play, but the special teams also allowed a 71-yard kickoff return to set up a Buffalo field goal. Overall, the unit has been a net positive but has room for improvement.
The Minutemen are 4-3 and 1-3 in the MAC after three straight losses. The offense needs to find consistency against conference defenses, and the health of quarterback Pop Watson III is a major question. Logan Inagawa has shown poise in relief, but the running game (Jordan Washington, Curtis Kimmons IV) has been inconsistent. The defense must shore up its run fits to avoid being gashed by balanced MAC offenses. Upcoming games against UConn and other regional rivals offer chances to regain momentum, but the schedule remains challenging. The early-season promise has faded; UMass must prove it can compete week-to-week in the MAC.
UMass Minutemen is 4-3-1 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 57% of games.
UMass Minutemen holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of -15.0, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
UMass Minutemen's home field advantage rating is 2.1 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
UMass Minutemen's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 2.5 wins, priced at -170 over and +130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
UMass Minutemen travels 8,456 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 49th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
UMass Minutemen: 4-4 overall, 4-3-1 ATS, power rating -15.0 (2026 records).